Michelle Waterson vs Angela Hill
- Michelle Waterson
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carla Esparza.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant. Beat Felice Herrig and Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
- Tools: Waterson has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has plus grappling (70).
- Angela Hill
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
- Tools: Hill has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average wrestling (60).
Hill has been on a pretty incredible run the past year or so. She’s got improved wrestling. And it seems like she’s got a new found confidence that’s been improving her striking. A lot of people thought she out struck Gadelha. But Waterson has been on a great run too. She barely lost to top contender Carla Esparza. Hill might have some improved wrestling, but Waterson has a true 70 grade grappling tool. And the last time Hill fought a grappler on the level of Waterson, which she did March of last year with Randa Markos, Hill got submitted in the 1st round. And then I found Waterson as a +110 underdog? That’s crazy to me.
Chris’ Pick: Waterson submits Hill in the 1st round.
Khama Worthy vs Ottman Azaitar
- Khama Worthy
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 16-6
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by Kyle Nelson, Billy Quarantillo, and Matt Bessette.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devonte Smith. Submitted Luis Pena and a 6-1 wrestler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Tools: Worthy has near plus striking (65). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Ottman Azaitar
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 grappler and 6-1 striker.
- Tools: Azaitar has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
After submitting Pena in his last fight, Worthy is starting to get interesting. He has a journeyman’s pro record, but obviously has seriously improved the last couple years. And Azaitar is arguably his easiest opponent he’s faced in the UFC. Azaitar has potential. Looked great in his UFC debut. But is pretty green. I think Worthy is the better technical striker, has more power, and a lot more experience. This one will be fun while it lasts.
Chris’ Pick: Worthy gets the 1st round knockout.
Roxanne Modafferi vs Andrea Lee
- Roxanne Modafferi
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 5-5 in her 2nd UFC stint.
- Key Wins: Beat Maycee Barber. Split decision win over Antonina Shevchenko.
- Tools: Modafferi has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Andrea Lee
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Lauren Murphy and Joanne Calderwood.
- Key Wins: Beat Montana de la Rosa and Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Tools: Lee has plus striking paired with average power (70-50). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Modafferi finds herself within sniffing distance of a title shot by making an adjustment a couple years ago, and going all in on her wrestling. She loses to opponents she can’t take down. But at the same time, pulls off some impressive wins when she was able to take down and post a historic upset over Maycee Barber. Lee has great striking, but as shown in her last fight against Murphy, her wrestling isn’t top notch. She can be taken down. That’s right up Modafferi’s alley and will be the difference in the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Modafferi by decision.
Mike Rodriguez vs Ed Herman
- Mike Rodriguez
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: He knocked out a 7-4 striker and an 8-2 striker.
- Tools: Rodriguez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has fringe average wrestling (45).
- Ed Herman
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 12-11
- Key Losses: Lost to CB Dollaway. Split decision loss to Gian Villante.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Patrick Cummins.
- Tools: Herman has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Herman has looked pretty good at 205 lbs his last couple fights. The Khadis Ibragimov win was especially impressive as it showed how durable Herman can be. Rodriguez does have 3 knockout wins in the UFC, but he’s so far shown to be a one dimensional striker. Herman’s ground game and wrestling is very under rated. Herman actually has 13 career submissions and 7 career knockouts. I think Herman has 2 very legit paths to win. Plan A would be taking Rodriguez down and submitting him. But even if he can’t for some reason, I think Herman has better cardio and would out last Rodriguez in the striking. Then throw in Herman being over a 2 to 1 underdog, I’m sold.
Chris’ Pick: Herman submits Rodriguez in the 3rd round.
Bobby Green vs Alan Patrick
- Bobby Green
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-5-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Beat Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
- Tools: Green has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Alan Patrick
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Beat John Makdessi and Stevie Ray.
- Tools: Patrick has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Green is Patrick’s worst nightmare when it comes to a replacement opponent. Green steps in on a couple week’s notice and he has the wrestling to stuff Patrick’s take downs. On the feet, Green should cruise.
Chris’ Pick: Green by decision.
Billy Quarantillo vs Kyle Nelson
- Billy Quarantillo
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Michel Quinones.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 5-1 wrestler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Spike Carlyle.
- Tools: Quarantillo has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Kyle Nelson
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy and Marco Polo Reyes.
- Tools: Nelson has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average grappling (50).
Quarantillo is one of these fighters where his best weapon is his cardio. Where he fights much better in the 2nd half of the fight. The first round could play out on the feet and be close, but Quarantillo will fight at such a frantic pace that Nelson will start to melt in the 2nd round. I see Quarantillo taking Nelson down and getting the sub.
Chris’ Pick: Quarantillo submits Nelson in the 2nd round.
Julia Avila vs Sijara Eubanks
- Julia Avila
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat Pannie Kianzad, Nicco Montano, and Marion Reneau.
- Tools: Avila has plus striking (70). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Sijara Eubanks
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 1-2 at 135 lbs. 6-2 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Bethe Correia.
- Key Wins: Beat Roxanne Modafferi twice and beat Lauren Murphy.
- Tools: Eubanks has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average wrestling (60).
The reality is that Eubanks isn’t the same fighter at 135 lbs as she is at 125 lbs. She’s a smaller bantamweight and that’s bad for how she fights. Her wrestling isn’t as effective. But she’s probably staying at 135 lbs as she has too hard a time making the 125 lb cut. Avila is an elite prospect. Already has wins over Montano and Reneau outside the UFC. She has rare 70 power for the division. Eubanks doesn’t really pose a threat to her anywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Avila knocks Eubanks out in the 2nd round.
Roosevelt Roberts vs Kevin Croom
- Roosevelt Roberts
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Vinc Pichel.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brok Weaver. Beat Thomas Gifford.
- Tools: Roberts has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Kevin Croom
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 20-12
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 16-8 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler, a well rounded 9-1 fighter, and a 9-3 striker. Submitted a 7-2 grappler. Split decision over a 5-2 striker.
- Tools: Croom has fringe average striking paired with power that’s a little above average (45-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Croom steps in on 1 day’s notice to fight Roberts. A tall task. Croom’s best on the ground and unfortunately for him, Roberts’ grappling is better, will allow him to keep him on the feet and he’ll pick Croom apart. Roberts’ will have a huge cardio advantage and I see him getting the finish late.
Chris’ Pick: Roberts by 3rd round knockout.
Alexander Romanov vs Roque Martinez
- Alexander Romanov
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 20-5 fighter.
- Tools: Romanov has average striking (50) and above average wrestling (60).
- Roque Martinez
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 16-6
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Mirko Cro Cop. Split decision loss to a 12-9 wrestler.
- Key Draws: Fought a 16-11 wrestler to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision win over an 8-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Martinez has fringe average striking (45). He also has average wrestling (50) and fringe average grappling (45).
Martinez has already shown to struggle with lower tier wrestlers. Well, Romanov is a much higher tier of wrestlers and with a full camp, he’ll have zero problems taking Martinez down and finishing him quick.
Chris’ Pick: Romanov by ground and pound TKO in the 1st round.
Brok Weaver vs Jalin Turner
- Brok Weaver
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 15-5
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Lost to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat a 8-1 grappler, a 9-3 wrestler and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Weaver has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jalin Turner
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 3-1 at 155 lbs. 3-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Turner has near plus striking (65) and average wrestling (50).
Really bad luck of the draw for Weaver with Frank Camacho unable to fight. Because in steps Turner, who’s a way tougher opponent. Striker vs striker. And Turner has way more power.
Chris’ Pick: Turner by 1st round knockout.
Bryan Barberena vs Anthony Ivy
- Bryan Barberena
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Randy Brown. Lost to Chad Laprise.
- Key Wins: Beat Warlley Alves.
- Tools: Barberena has average striking paired with above average power (50-60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Anthony Ivy
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Christian Aguilera.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 wrestler, a well rounded 8-1 fighter, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Tools: Ivy has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
On paper, this is a coin flip fight. Ivy has the resume to possibly do something in the UFC. I think his tools are real. He has strong wins on his resume. But I can’t shake the image of him getting starched in the 1st round by Aguilera. Barberena has even more power and I think Ivy might be gun shy coming off a knockout loss.
Chris’ Pick: Barberena knocks Ivy out in the 2nd round.
Sabina Mazo vs Justine Kish
- Sabina Mazo
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Maryna Moroz.
- Key Wins: Beat an 8-0 grappler and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision win over JJ Aldrich.
- Tools: Mazo has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has fringe average wrestling (45).
- Justine Kish
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Loses: Split decision loss to Ji Yeon Kim.
- Key Wins: Beat Lucie Pudilova, Ashley Yoder, Nina Ansaroff, and Randa Markos.
- Tools: Kish has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Has Mazo improved her wrestling since losing to Moroz a year and a half ago? That’s the question and that’s what will determine who’s wins this fight. And although Mazo is 23 and developing rapidly, I don’t see her making that big of a jump. Kish is really under rated. Might as well be 4-2 in the UFC as she also has a win over Markos. I think Kish takes Mazo down just like Moroz and does enough on the ground. Add in the fact that Kish is a +225 underdog, and it’s an easy pick.
Chris’ Pick: Kish by decision.