Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa
- Israel Adesanya
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Robert Whittaker and Derek Brunson. Beat Kelvin Gastelum and Anderson Silva.
- Tools: Adesanya has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Paulo Costa
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Uriah Hall and Johny Hendricks. Split decision over Yoel Romero.
- Tools: Costa has near plus plus striking (75). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
I can’t get that Adesanya vs Gastelum fight out of my mind in picking this fight. Adesanya can be hurt. He was almost finished in that fight. Costa only has 5 fights in the UFC. His striking has the upside of being plus plus. He looked way better in fighting Romero than Adesanya did. Stand up fight, obviously. I just think that #1, Costa showed in the Romero fight that he has a chin that can take damage and #2, I don’t think Adesanya’s chin will hold up against Costa’s power.
Chris’ Pick: Costa by 1st round knockout.
Dominick Reyes vs Jan Blachowicz
- Dominick Reyes
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Cannonier, Ovince St. Preux, and Chris Weidman. Split decision over Volkan Oezdemir.
- Tools: Reyes has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Jan Blachowicz
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Knocked out Corey Anderson, Luke Rockhold, and Ilir Latifi. Submitted Nikita Krylov and Devin Clark. Beat Jared Cannonier and Jimi Manuwa. Split decision over Jacare Souza.
- Tools: Blachowicz has near plus striking (65). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
I’m very convinced that Reyes comes in to this fight as the reigning champion. The vast majority of people that watched Reyes fight Jon Jones thought Reyes won the fight by winning the first 3 rounds. So fighting someone like Blachowicz is a pretty big step down for Reyes. And the reason I point that out is that Reyes’ confidence has got to be at an all time high. Reyes’ striking is special. Pretty close to a plus plus tool. He just needs to pace himself better to last 5 rounds. I remember seeing Thiago Santos knock Blachowicz out. I think Reyes will be able to do the same.
Chris’ Pick: Reyes by 2nd round knockout.
Kai Kara-France vs Brandon Royval
- Kai Kara-France
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Beat Tyson Nam. Split decision over Raulian Paiva.
- Tools: Kara-France has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Brandon Royval
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Elliott, Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Tools: Royval has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).
Royval blew me away in not just beating Tim Elliott in his UFC debut, but submitting him to boot. Pretty amazing. And that wrestling is going to give Kara-France problems. Yes, Kara-France stuffed Nam’s takedowns in his last fight, but Royval’s wrestling is on another level. Royval’s cardio will be a problem too.
Chris’ Pick: Royval by decision.
Ketlen Vieira vs Sijara Eubanks
- Ketlen Vieira
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Sara McMann. Beat Ashley Evans-Smith. Split decision over Cat Zingano.
- Tools: Vieira has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Sijara Eubanks
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 2-2 at 135 lbs. 7-2 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Bethe Correia.
- Key Wins: Beat Julia Avila and Lauren Murphy. Beat Roxanne Modafferi twice.
- Tools: Eubanks has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
Going into Vieira’s fight with Irene Aldana, Vieira was known as a wrestler and grappler. And if you look at the end result of that fight, it’s easy to continue to dismiss Vieira’s striking. But I rewatched that fight and Vieira was actually keeping up with Aldana before getting knocked out. Aldana’s power advantage made the difference in the fight but Vieira did improve a ton. Eubanks has rebounded nicely since a disappointing loss to Bethe Coreira. After seeing that fight I thought Eubanks might be small for bantamweight and that her wrestling wouldn’t translate as well. But since she beat Sarah Moras and upset a likely contender in Julia Avila. Initially, I was going to pick Eubanks to win because I underestimated Vieira’s striking. But I’m changing my pick to Vieira because the power of both fighters is close to equal and I see Vieira getting the best of the stand up.
Chris’ Pick: Vieira by decision.
Hakeem Dawodu vs Zubaira Tukhugov
- Hakeem Dawodu
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-1-1
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Danny Henry.
- Key Wins: Split decision over Julio Arce.
- Tools: Dawodu has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Zubaira Tukhugov
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Lerone Murphy to a draw.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Renato Moicano.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Aguilar. Beat Douglas Silva de Andrade.
- Tools: Tukhugov has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
Tukhugov has a lot of value at -115 in this fight. And it turns out his draw with Lerone Murphy doesn’t look as bad as I thought. On the feet, the striking will be close, but Tukhugov has way more power and I can see him knocking Dawodu out. But even if he can’t Tukhugov’s wrestling might be good enough to take him down. 2 legit paths to win.
Chris’ Pick: Tukhugov by 2nd round knockout.
Brad Riddell vs Alex da Silva
- Brad Riddell
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat a 12-2 striker. Split decision over Magomed Mustafaev.
- Tools: Riddell has near plus striking (65) and average wrestling (50).
- Alex da Silva
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 21-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Alexander Yakovlev.
- Key Wins: Beat an 11-2 striker.
- Tools: da Silva has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and average grappling (50).
One of the more interesting fights on the card. At first glance, you might think this is an easy Riddell win. He really impressed in his UFC debut squeaking out a split decision win over Mustafaev. Some books have Riddell favored as high as -340. And da Silva hasn’t fought in over a year. 1-1 UFC record. Padded record outside the UFC. Submitted by Yakovlev. But after watching both of da Silva’s fights, I really under graded his wrestling. He was out wrestling a 60 wrestler in Yakovlev. Likely suffered from an adrenaline dump. Got his neck caught in a guillotine. Then I watched his fight with Rodrigo Vargas. And side note, Vargas has 55 wrestling. I saw it when Vargas fought Brok Weaver and Weaver couldn’t take Vargas down. Well, when da Silva fought Vargas, da Silva took Vargas down at will. And then I watched Riddell vs Mustaev and guess what? Riddell struggled with Mustafaev’s take downs. I have da Silva’s wrestling at a 65 and Mustafaev’s wrestling at a 55. I can’t see how Riddell will improve on his wrestling enough in less than a year. I’m confident da Silva can take Riddell down and because of that, I’m picking the upset.
Chris’ Pick: da Silva by decision.
Diego Sanchez vs Jake Matthews
- Diego Sanchez
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 22-12
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mickey Gall.
- Tools: Sanchez has average striking (50) and above average wrestling (60).
- Jake Matthews
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook.
- Key Wins: Beat Jingliang Li.
- Tools: Matthews has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
I was pretty surprised Sanchez couldn’t take Michel Pereira down in his last fight. And if he couldn’t take Pereira down, I highly doubt he’ll be able to take a budding, potential contender in Matthews down. Matthews is a heavy favorite for a reason. The odds of him losing are super slim.
Chris’ Pick: Matthews by 2nd round knockout.
Ludovit Klein vs Shane Young
- Ludovit Klein
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 16-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 4-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat an 11-2 striker.
- Tools: Klein has above average striking (60). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Shane Young
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter and a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 16-5 fighter. Split decision over a 20-6 wrestler.
- Tools: Young has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Close fight. Young hasn’t fought in a year and a half. Klien is a very good prospect with a track record of beating quality prospects. I think Klein is a little bit better everywhere. And if you can get Klein as an underdog, that’s even better.
Chris’ Pick: Klein by decision.
William Knight vs Aleksa Camur
- William Knight
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Tools: Knight has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
- Aleksa Camur
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler and a 4-1 grappler.
- Tools: Camur has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
Could be a close fight, but the big difference will be Camur having better cardio. I see him pouring on the strikes in the 2nd half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Camur by decision.
Juan Espino vs Jeff Hughes
- Juan Espino
- Age: 39
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 10-2 striker.
- Tools: Espino has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Jeff Hughes
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Raphael Pessoa. Split decision loss to Maurice Greene. Got knocked out by a well rounded 13-5 fighter.
- Key Wins: Beat Maurice Greene the first time they fought in LFA. Also beat a 13-3 wrestler.
- Tools: Hughes has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has average wrestling (50).
Espino’s grappling is easily the best tool in the fight. It’ll be interesting to see what he can do at 39 years of age and coming off a 2 year late off. But based on what I saw of him on The Ultimate FIghter, he wasn’t the average 37 year old. It’s likely his body still has a bunch of miles. I see him putting Hughes in a position he’s not in often, which is on his back.
Chris’ Pick: Espino by 2nd round submission.
Danilo Marques vs Khadis Ibragimov
- Danilo Marques
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 9-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 12-6 fighter.
- Tools: Marques has fringe average striking (45) and fringe average grappling (45).
- Khadis Ibragimov
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Ed Herman.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 15-3 fighter and a 9-3 striker. Knocked out a 7-0 striker.
- Tools: Ibragimov has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Ibragimov’s grappling is the best tool in this fight. I like that the UFC is giving him another chance as he’s very young for a light heavyweight.
Chris’ Pick: Ibragimov by 2nd round submission.