Brian Ortega vs The Korean Zombie
- Brian Ortega
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Renato Moicano and Cub Swanson. Knocked out Frankie Edgar.
- Tools: Ortega has plus striking (70) and plus grappling (70).
- The Korean Zombie
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by Yair Rodriguez with 1 second left in their fight.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Edgar and Renato Moicano.
- Tools: Zombie has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).
It’s been a little bit since Ortega last fought. Almost 2 years. He came real close to beating Max Holloway at his peak. Looking at the odds, I don’t understand why Zombie would be the favorite. Ortega has proved his striking is a 70 in the Edgar and Holloway fights. And Ortega will have an advantage in the grappling. On the feet, I think the fight is equal. Zombie’s striking is not better than a 70. Ortega might get off to a slow start in the 1st round, but I see him turning it on mid way through the fight, eventually getting Zombie to the ground, and submitting him.
Chris’ Pick: Ortega by 3rd round submission.
Jessica Andrade vs Katlyn Chookagian
- Jessica Andrade
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-2 at 115 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Namajunas and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Claudia Gadelha and Tecia Torres.
- Tools: Andrade has plus striking (70). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Katlyn Chookagian
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Liz Carmouche. Lost a split decision to Jessica Eye.
- Key Wins: Beat Joanne Calderwood, Jennifer Maia, and Antonina Shevchenko. Split decision win over 135 lb contender Irene Aldana.
- Tools: Chookagian has plus striking paired with average power (70-50). She also has above average wrestling (60).
Really interesting fight. Andrade was a pretty good fighter at 135 lbs. Became a champion at 115 lbs. And now is moving up to 125 lbs. Will the power she had at strawweight translate to flyweight? I think the bigger question is whether she’ll be able to catch Chookagain? As in, Chookagian will be on her bike in this fight. Wanting to stay on the outside. Chookagian is a big flyweight. If they do stand and trade, I could see Chookagian landing more, but Andrade has knockout power. Chookagian doesn’t. There’s also the possibility that Andrade takes Chookagian down just like Valentina Shevchenko did. Andrade can win that way. But the clincher for me is hearing that Chookagian is thinking about retiring and is taking it fight by fight. Historically, fighters that are genuinely pondering retirement don’t do well in fights. And Andrade is available for -140. I have to pick Andrade.
Chris’ Pick: Andrade by decision.
Jimmy Crute vs Modestas Bukauskas
- Jimmy Crute
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk and Paul Craig. Knocked out Sam Alvey.
- Tools: Crute has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
- Modestas Bukauskas
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-3 fighter, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Bukauskas has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
I think this is too much, too soon for Bukauskas. Crute looks like a possible future champion. He’s better everywhere and the submission win over Oleksiejczuk was particularly impressive in that not only his grappling is improving, but he bounced back well from his first career loss to Misha Cirkunov. I think Crute will go back to the well here.
Chris’ Pick: Crute by 1st round submission.
Claudio Silva vs James Krause
- Claudio Silva
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Nordine Taleb and Danny Roberts. Split decision over Leon Edwards in 2014.
- Tools: Silva has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- James Krause
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Controversial split decision loss to Trevin Giles. Split decision loss to Valmir Lazaro.
- Key WIns: Knocked out Sergio Moraes and Warlley Alves.
- Tools: Krause has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
Close fight. Krause has looked way better at 170 lbs in the UFC than he did at 155 lbs. Silva will need to take Krause down to win. Fight could go either way. Silva’s grappling could be a 70. He’s just so inactive. I wouldn’t be surprised if Silva wins, but I’m picking Krause because I think it’s most likely that Krause keeps the fight on the feet, stays at range, moves, gets in and out on the strikes.
Chris’ Pick: Krause by decision.
Thomas Almeida vs Jonathan Martinez
- Thomas Almeida
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Tools: Almeida has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jonathan Martinez
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Controversial split decision loss to Andre Ewell. Lost to Andre Soukhamthath.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Saenz and Pingyuan Liu.
- Tools: Martinez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
This is probably a more dangerous fight for Almeida than Alejandro Perez was, just because Martinez has more momentum and probably more knockout power. Almeida has lost 3 out of his last 4 fights and 2 of those losses came by knockout. He hasn’t fought in almost 3 years. I still believe in Almeida’s tools and think this is a great value pick. Almeida’s striking in his last fight against Rob Font was actually improved from his loss to Jimmie Rivera. A lot of people are picking Martinez, but let’s not forget Martinez lost a split decision to Andre Ewell and lost to cut fighter Andre Soukhamthath. I’m confident Almeida gets it done.
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 2nd round knockout.
Mateusz Gamrot vs Guram Kutateladze
- Mateusz Gamrot
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 17-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Norman Parke, a well rounded 9-1-1 fighter, a 16-0-1 grappler, and a 15-3 striker. Submitted a 9-1 grappler. Beat a 12-3-1 wrestler, a 24-4 grappler, a 21-7 grappler, and a 12-3 grappler.
- Tools: Gamrot has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and average grappling (50).
- Guram Kutateladze
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 wrestler and a 9-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 22-5 fighter.
- Tools: Kutateladze has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
Kutateladze isn’t a bad prospect, but he’s coming in to face someone who’s potentially a title contender on a little over a week’s notice. Gamrot is the real deal and has one of the most loaded resumes coming into the UFC. Gamrot is better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Gamrot by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
Gillian Robertson vs Poliana Botelho
- Gillian Robertson
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Mayra Bueno Silva.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cortney Casey, Emily Whitmire, and Molly McCann. Knocked out Sarah Frota.
- Tools: Robertson has average striking (50) and plus grappling (70).
- Poliana Botelho
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 striker, a 3-1 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 4-1 wrestler. Beat Lauren Mueller.
- Tools: Botelho has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
I think that Robertson and Cynthia Calvillo are similar fighters. And Calvillo had no problem getting Botelho down and subbing her. That fight happened about 2 years ago and Robertson has legit 70 grappling. I just don’t see how there’s been enough time for Botelho to improve her take down defense enough to keep this fight on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Robertson by 1st round submission.
Jun Yong Park vs John Phillips
- Jun Yong Park
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision against a 5-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Beat Marc-Andre Barriault and a 18-6 striker.
- Tools: Park has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
- John Phillips
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 22-10
- UFC Record: 1-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Charles Byrd. Split decision loss to Jack Marshman.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Phillips has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
Phillips has a 1-4 record, but he’s capable of winning here. He’s looked good in the last 2 out of 3 fights. He only won 1 of those. A quick knockout. The other was a loss to Khamzat Chimaev. No shame there. The other fight was a split decision loss to Marshman where Phillips really should’ve won the fight. He knocked Marshman down in the 1st round and rather then jump on him to finish the fight, he took a bow to the crowd and let Marshman get back up. The judges also gave the fight to Marshman, although I scored it for Phillips. In any case, I’m confident in saying I don’t think Park’s striking or wrestling is better than Marshman. Therefore I like Phillips in the upset.
Chris’ Pick: Phillips by 2nd round knockout.
Fares Ziam vs Jamie Mullarkey
- Fares Ziam
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat a 4-0 striker.
- Tools: Ziam has average striking (50) and fringe average grappling (45).
- Jamie Mullarkey
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Mullarkey has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and fringe average grappling (45).
The Mullarkey vs Brad Riddell fight really surprised me. I knew Riddell had some hype coming in and I expected Riddell to dispose of Mullarkey quickly. Mullarkey didn’t have much of a resume coming in. His best win is over a 4-1 wrestler. So the close, back and forth fight between the two shocked me. Then I started to doubt how legit Riddell was. But Riddell actually beat potential contender Magomed Mustafaev. So that new development makes me realize that maybe it’s Mullarkey who turns out to be pretty good despite the lack of quality wins. In this fight against Ziam, I think it’s an easy pick. Mullarkey will keep the fight on the feet and has a monster striking advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Mullarkey knocks Ziam out in the 2nd round.
Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs Maxim Grishin
- Gadzhimurad Antigulov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Paul Craig.
- Key Wins: Submitted Marcos Rogerio de Lima.
- Tools: Antigulov has below average striking (40) and above average grappling (60).
- Maxim Grishin
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 30-8-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 7-3 striker.
- Key Draws: Fought Jordan Johnson and an 11-4 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker and a 7-1 Alexander Volkov, back in 2010. Knocked out a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 33-10-1 fighter, a 15-3 grappler, and a well rounded 11-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Johnson, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, an 8-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 15-4 fighter.
- Tools: Grishin has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Grishin returns to 205 lbs where his wrestling should prove to be a lot more effective than it was at heavyweight against Marcin Tybura. Antigulov is a submission specialist who hasn’t made much progress in improving his hands or his ability to absorb damage. Grishin is another opponent for Antigulov who’s not easy to take down.
Chris’ Pick: Grishin by 1st round knockout.
Said Nurmagomedov vs Mark Striegl
- Said Nurmagomedov
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricardo Ramos. Beat a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a 16-3 grappler. Split decision over Justin Scoggins.
- Tools: Nurmagomedov has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and fringe average grappling (45).
- Mark Striegl
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 18-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 6-5 fighter and a 7-3 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 grappler and a 5-1 striker. Split decision win over a 10-2-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Striegl has below average striking (40-30). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Said is one of the safer bets on the card, even at 4 to 1 odds. His striking has improved to a 55, although he lacks power. He picked up a knockout over Ricardo Ramos. And in his last fight against Barcelos, he lost the striking exchanges but didn’t get wiped out. Said wins this fight just by his wrestling by itself. But even if Striegl’s grappling is better than I think, I’m supremely confident that Said has the better striking.
Chris’ Pick: Nurmagomedov knocks Striegl out in the 1st round.