Max Holloway vs Calvin Kattar
- Max Holloway
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 17-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo (twice), Anthony Pettis, and Charles Oliveira. Beat Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas.
- Tools: Holloway has near plus plus striking (75) and plus wrestling (70).
- Calvin Kattar
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jeremy Stephens, Shane Burgos, Chris Fighgold, and Ricardo Lamas. Beat Dan Ige.
- Tools: Kattar has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
In my opinion, this could very well be a 145 lb title fight. I scored the Holloway vs Volkanovski 2 fight for Holloway. And Kattar is someone who’s likely going to fight for the title someday. So this is title fight quality here. Just like with Volkanovski, Holloway won’t have the moster cardio advantage late in the fight. When Kattar fought Zabit, Most thought Zabit won the first 2 rounds, with Kattar easily winning the 3rd as Zabit gassed out. So this fight comes down to who has the better striking and based off how Holloway out struck Volkanovski, I have to pick Holloway.
Chris’ Pick: Holloway by decision.
Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown
- Carlos Condit
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-9
- Key Losses: Submitted by Alex Oliveira.
- Key Wins: Beat Court McGee.
- Tools: Condit has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Matt Brown
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 15-11
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means. Knocked out Diego Sanchez.
- Tools: Brown has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Brown was looking pretty good against Miguel Baeza, holding his own, until Baeza caught him at the end of the 1st round and he didn’t last too much longer going into the 2nd. Brown has won 2 of his last 3 fights. 2 knockout wins. But the wins were over Diego Sanchez and Ben Saunders. And the 2 fights before that, Brown got knocked out by Jake Ellenberger and Donald Cerrone. Now, Condit isn’t in his prime anymore either. He had lost 5 in a row until he finally snapped that streak, beating Court McGee. But Condit’s biggest flaw right now is his lack of grappling and wrestling. Only 55 grades now. He hasn’t been getting out struck by many. Brown is a favorable matchup. A striker.
Chris’ Pick: Condit by decision.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Jingliang Li
- Santiago Ponzinibbio
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny. Beat Mike Perry, Nordine Taleb, and Zak Cummings.
- Tools: Ponzinibbio has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Jingliang Li
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dhiego Lima, Zak Ottow, and David Zawada.
- Tools: Jingliang has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
Ponzinibbio returns to fight for the first time in over 2 years, so this fight is really all about how he looks. Ironically, Ponzinibbio’s last fight came against Magny. So you’d think Ponzinibbio would want to follow a similar blue print here in beating Jingliang. Ponzinibbio should be better everywhere. The only risk is whether he regresses or not, but he’s 34 years old. He should be good to go.
Chris’ Pick: Ponzinibbio by decision.
Joaquin Buckley vs Alessio di Chirico
- Joaquin Buckley
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jordan Wright, Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Buckley has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Alessio di Chirico
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Eric Spicely. Lost to Bojan Velickovic.
- Key Wins: Split decision win over Julian Marquez.
- Tools: Di Chirico has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Buckley is really emerging as a possible contender. And as Kevin Holland continues his run of success, it makes Buckley look that much better, as Buckley made his UFC debut against Holland on a few days notice and held his own for the first 2 rounds. To me, this fight is a bit of a mismatch. I don’t see any path to victory for di Chirico.
Chris’ Pick: Buckley by 2nd round knockout.
Punahele Soriano vs Dusko Todorovic
- Punahele Soriano
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Oskar Piechota and a 5-1 striker. Beat a 7-3 striker.
- Tools: Soriano has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Dusko Todorovic
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michel Pereira and a well rounded 8-0 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Submitted an 8-1 striker. Beat a 14-4 striker.
- Tools: Todorovic has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Total coin flip fight. I have both fighters graded almost identical. Both young, undefeated. But I have more question marks about Todorovic. I can’t shake his performance on The Contender with Teddy Ash, which was lackluster in my opinion. And the eye test says Soriano might have more power. And some books have Soriano as the underdog, so that’s the side I got to go with.
Chris’ Pick: Soriano by 2nd round knockout.
Phil Hawes vs Nassourdine Imavov
- Phil Hawes
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a 4-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Hawes has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Nassourdine Imavov
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 wrestler and a 9-1 striker. Beat Jordan Williams and a 12-4 grappler.
- Tools: Imavov has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Anything under -200 for Hawes is gold here. I want to grade his striking a 65, but the reality is that the guy he fought on The Contender isn’t that good. And although his last opponent Jacob Malkoun was a -250 favorite, it’s not like we can say for sure that Hawes has the better striking as Hawes knocked Malkoun out in 18 seconds. But it’s for sure at least a 60. And I really wasn’t that thrilled with Imavov’s win over Jordan Williams. I was surprised how grappling heavy his approach was despite the lack of results. Hawes is better everywhere and has a big power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Hawes by 1st round knockout.
Yanan Wu vs Joselyne Edwards
- Yanan Wu
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Lauren Mueller.
- Tools: Yanan has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Joselyne Edwards
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sarah Alpar.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-3 striker.
- Tools: Edwards has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
This fight is literally a coin flip. Both fighter’s skills are almost identical. Yanan did show grappling improvement keeping up with Mizuki Inoue in her last fight. She lost a split decision, but I scored the fight for Yanan. And with Edwards, I’m not 100% confident on where to grade her grappling. For this fight, I have Edwards grappling at a 50, but it could very well be a 55. Based on me thinking Yanan’s grappling will be a little better, Edwards fighting on a week’s notice, and this being Edwards UFC debut, all these small reasons add up to me picking Yanan.
Chris’ Pick: Yanan by split decision.
Carlos Felipe vs Justin Tafa
- Carlos Felipe
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Sergey Spivac.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-0 striker.
- Tools: Felipe has near plus striking (65) and average wrestling (50).
- Justin Tafa
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 4-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Juan Adams.
- Tools: Tafa has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I’m aware of the danger in picking Tafa. Felipe is a more known commodity. He’s shown to be more durable. Has shown cardio. I grade Felipe has a 65 striker as well. But Tafa’s power is different. Felipe is more of a volume puncher. I’m close to grading him with 55 power. It’s very possible Tafa tries to finish Felipe early in the 1st round. Can’t. Tires out and Felipe takes over in the 2nd and 3rd round. But this fight is going to start on the feet, will stay on the feet. And I just think when Tafa touches Felipe, he’s going to fall. And having Tafa at +174 doesn’t hurt either.
Chris’ Pick: Tafa by 1st round knockout.
Ramazan Emeev vs David Zawada
- Ramazan Emeev
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Beat Sam Alvey.
- Tools: Emeev has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- David Zawada
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 17-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Danny Roberts.
- Key Wins: Submitted Abubakar Nurmagomedov and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Knocked out a 12-4 grappler, a 10-3 wrestler.
- Tools: Zawada has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Full disclosure, I picked Zawada to upset Abubaker Nurmagomedov. But I got lucky because Abubaker’s wrestling was better than I thought. Just like knockouts, sometimes fighters get caught in a submission and that’s how Zawada tapped Abubaker. Emeev has improved his striking to a 60 with 50 power. But his 65 wrestling will be the real difference in the fight. This is a borderline mismatch.
Chris’ Pick: Emeev by decision.
Sarah Moras vs Vanessa Melo
- Sarah Moras
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Lucie Pudilova and Talita Bernardo.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Tools: Moras has average striking (50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Vanessa Melo
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 10-8
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Losses: Lost close decisions to Irene Aldana and Tracy Cortez.
- Key Wins: Beat Molly McCann in 2015. Split decision win over a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Tools: Melo has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has average wrestling (50).
Melo might be the most under rated fighter in the UFC. 0-3 UFC record. She lost a close fight in her UFC debut to contender Aldana. Then lost to 2 top prospects in Cortez and Karol Rosa. Her striking was close to equal with Aldana. She out struck Cortez. Her striking is a legit 60 grade, although she lacks power, having 0 career knockouts. Moras hasn’t really developed in the UFC. Her wrestling and grappling has hovered between the 55 and 60 ranges. She was out classed in her last fight against Sijara Eubanks. Cortez had a hard time getting Melo to the ground and it wasn’t until the second half of their fight until she started having success. Cortez has better wrestling than Moras. And I don’t think Moras gets Melo to the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Melo by decision.
Austin Lingo vs Jacob Kilburn
- Austin Lingo
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker.
- Tools: Lingo has striking that’s a little above average (55) and fringe average wrestling (45).
- Jacob Kilburn
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Bobby Moffett.
- Tools: Kilburn has average striking (50) and below average grappling (40).
Most fighters in the UFC have average 50 tools and better. Some have 45 grade tools. Not many UFC fighters have below average 40 grade tools. Having a clear hole in your game makes it almost impossible to win fights in the octagon. I don’t like giving out 40 grades, but I have no choice with Kilburn. His fights with Bobby Moffett and Billy Quarantillo I think best show where he’s at. Moffett has 55 grappling. Quarantillo has 60 grappling. They took Kilburn down within seconds. And Kilburn would stay on his back, not able to make any progress in getting up. That’s a 40 grade. He might have a chance in this fight. Lingo doesn’t have the best ground game either. He got out wrestled in his UFC debut by Youssef Zalal, who had 50 wrestling at the time they fought. So I think it comes down to the striking. Lingo was a -200 favorite going into his fight with Zalal. His striking is for real.
Chris’ Pick: Lingo by 2nd round knockout.