Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Augusto Sakai
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Andrei Arlovski.
- Tools: Rozenstruik has plus striking (70) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Augusto Sakai
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Tybura, Chase Sherman, and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Split decision wins over Blagoi Ivanov and Andrei Arlovski.
- Tools: Sakai has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
There’s no shame losing to the 2 guys Rozenstruik has lost to. Francis Ngannou. Champion. Ciryl Gane. Possible future champion. Rozenstruik was on his way to losing to a more in his prime Overeem, but that was because of Rozenstruik’s 55 wrestling. He’s got to improve on that. The wrestling won’t matter in this fight. Sakai lost his last fight to Overeem’s wrestling too. But Sakai did show an improved striking tool. Which I now grade a 70. But I downgraded his power to a 60. Sakai switched his striking style to more of a volume style. And it worked against Overeem. In this fight, I really like Rozenstruik because of the power advantage. Now don’t get me wrong. Sakai has power. 60 power is nothing to sneeze at. But I’m predicting that if these guys trade for 3, 4, 5 rounds, Rozenstruik is eventually going to catch Sakai. Rozenstruik should have better cardio. Sakai will start to slow down towards the end of the fight. But I think Rozenstruik will get it done earlier than that.
Chris’ Pick: Rozenstruik by 2nd round knockout.
Marcin Tybura vs Walt Harris
- Marcin Tybura
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Greg Hardy. Beat Andrei Arlovski and Sergei Spivac.
- Tools: Tybura has striking that’s a little above average (55) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Walt Harris
- Age: 37
- UFC record: 6-8
- Key Split decision to Shamil Abdurakhimov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chase Sherman, Cyril Asker, Daniel Spitz, Sergei Spivac, and Alexei Oleinik.
- Tools: Harris has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
On the surface, you can look at the result of the Tybura vs Greg Hardy fight and think, okay, Tybura won cause of his wrestling. Hardy couldn’t stop the take downs. But that’s not what happened. Hardy lost because he gassed out hard towards the end of the 2nd round. In the 1st, and early in the 2nd, Hardy easily shook the take down attempts off. And Hardy has been lighting Tybura up on the feet. The main issue Hardy had in that fight was not being efficient with his cardio. Fighting at too fast of a pace, going for the finish. And the reason I’m talking so much about Hardy is because he and Walt Harris are very similar. 65 striking and power. 60 wrestling. The thing that’s going to determine who wins this fight is how well Harris manages his gas tank. And that’s almost an impossible thing to predict. On paper, Harris should be on the feet long enough to knock Tybura out. But it’s going to depend on the cardio.
Chris’ Pick: Harris by 2nd round knockout.
Laureano Staropoli vs Roman Dolidze
- Laureano Staropoli
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Beat Thiago Alves.
- Tools: Staropoli has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
- Roman Dolidze
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a 13-3 wrestler. Split decision over John Allan.
- Tools: Dolidze has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average grappling (60).
For what it’s worth, I thought Dolidze beat Trevin Giles in his last fight. The judges are inconsistent when it comes to rewarding grappling control. Staropoli is pretty similar to Giles except I have Staropoli’s wrestling a tier beneath Giles. Which means Dolidze will be able to take Staropoli down. It seems like Staropoli also has trouble making 170 lbs. Which means his cardio isn’t the best. Bodes well for Dolidze.
Chris’ Pick: Dolidze by decision.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Miguel Baeza
- Santiago Ponzinibbio
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 9-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny. Beat Mike Perry, Nordine Taleb, and Zak Cummings.
- Tools: Ponzinibbio has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Miguel Baeza
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key WIns: Knocked out Matt Brown. Submitted Takashi Sato. Beat a 10-3 striker.
- Tools: Baeza has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
This fight really comes down to which Ponzinibbio shows up. Because we didn’t see the one that was on a 7 fight win streak in his last bout with Jingliang Li. Ponzinibbio hadn’t fought in over 2 years due to injuries. He did okay in the striking for 4 minutes. Then got knocked out. With Baeza, lots of smart people love him. Think he’s a future title contender. I’m not sold yet, mainly because of the lack of quality opponents he’s beat. The Sato win was nice. But I don’t think Sato is that good either. Slightly above average fighter. Baeza’s other wins were over Victor Reyna, Hector Aldana, and a near retirement Matt Brown. He’s looked great, but lots of fighters can look great over average competition. I’m picking Ponzibbio because I’m decently confident that Baeza’s striking tool is a 60, for now. Ponzinibbio, even though he got knocked out, the striking with him and Jingliang was close. I just don’t think Ponzinibbio is done. He’s 34 years old, but only has 12 UFC fights. He should be in his prime. Sometimes it takes a round for fighters to knock off the ring rust. I think there’s some value in Ponzinibbio at + money.
Chris’ Pick: Ponzinibbio by decision.
Dusko Todorovic vs Gregory Rodrigues
- Dusko Todorovic
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michel Pereira and a well rounded 8-0 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Submitted an 8-1 striker. Beat a 14-4 striker.
- Tools: Todorovic has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Gregory Rodrigues
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1-1 grappler. Knocked out an 8-3 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler.
- Tools: Rodrigues has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
This fight is a literal coin flip. Rodrigues has a lot of momentum. He knocked out 2 quality guys in a row in LFA. I have both their tools graded pretty close to identical. To me this is a dog or pass situation. I don’t see any reason to lay the chalk on Todorovic. He’s coming off being knocked out for the first time in his career. Sometimes fighters can be a little gun shy.
Chris’ Pick: Rodrigues by 2nd round knockout.
Tom Breese vs Antonio Arroyo
- Tom Breese
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Strickland.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Kelly.
- Tools: Breese has near plus striking (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Antonio Arroyo
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 striker. Knocked out a 11-2 striker.
- Tools: Arroyo has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Breese’s grappling isn’t the 60 I thought it was. I’ve down graded it to a 55 since his last fight with Omari Akhmedov. Not that it matters in this fight. Arroyo isn’t going to be trying to take him down. And that works for Breese, who’s stand up is his strong suit. I’m comfortable in saying that Breese is a near lock to win.
Chris’ Pick: Breese by 1st round knockout.
Makwan Amirkhani vs Kamuela Kirk
- Makwan Amirkhani
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Arnold Allen.
- Key Wins: Submitted Danny Henry and Chris Fishgold.
- Tools: Amirkhani has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Kamuela Kirk
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to a well rounded 8-4 fighter. Split decision loss to a 6-1 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter.
- Tools: Kirk has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and fringe average grappling (45).
There’s no shame in getting overwhelmed by Billy Quarantillo at the end of a fight. His cardio is plus. Since then, Kirk has gotten better. The problem though, is that his wrestling is nowhere near the level it needs to be to stop Amirkhani’s grappling. Kirk steps in on less than 2 weeks notice. He’ll have less cardio than usual. I’d probably call this fight a lock for Amirkhani, but he needs to beware a possible 1st round blitz of Kirk going for the KO.
Chris’ Pick: Amirkhani by 1st round submission.
Montana de la Rosa vs Ariane Lipski
- Montana de la Rosa
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Mayra Bueno Silva to a majority draw,
- Key Wins: Submitted Nadia Kassem. Beat Mara Romero Borella.
- Tools: De la Rosa has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has near plus grappling (65).
- Ariane Lipski
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Luana Carolina, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 12-4 grappler.
- Tools: Lipski has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
We all saw how de la Rosa was able to take Bueno Silva down repeatedly. De la Rosa has borderline 70 grappling. I have it as a 65 for now. We all saw how Antonina Shevchenko took Lipski down and dominated her. I don’t think this fight is any more complicated than that.
Chris’ Pick: de la Rosa by 2nd round submission.
Ilir Latifi vs Tanner Boser
- Ilir Latifi
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Ovince St Preux. Beat Tyson Pedro.
- Tools: Latifi has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Tanner Boser
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Lost to a 5-1 wrestler, a well rounded 4-4-1 fighter, and a 17-7 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raphael Pessoa, Philipe Lins, and an 11-3 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Tools: Boser has above average striking (60) and has average wrestling (50).
Boser has had 5 fights in the UFC so far and not one of them have been against anyone with 60 wrestling or better. So it’s hard to gague where his take down defense is at. But he’s going to get that test here. Latifi surprisingly came really close to beating Derrick Lewis. Took him down a few times. Not easy to do for a fighter that used to fight at 205 lbs. I think Latifi is a safe pick. It’s very likely his wrestling wins this fight, but even if I’m somehow wrong, Latifi’s striking should be better too. And because Latifi doesn’t cut a bunch of weight, his cardio should be pretty good too.
Chris’ Pick: Latifi by 2nd round knockout.
Muslim Salikhov vs Francisco Trinaldo
- Muslim Salikhov
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Alex Garcia.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nordine Taleb, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Laureano Staropoli and an 8-1 wrestler. Split decision over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Tools: Salikhov has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Francisco Trinaldo
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 16-6
- Key Losses: Lost to James Vick.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jai Herbert, Chad Laprise, Paul Felder, and Evan Dunham. Beat John Makdessi and Bobby Green.
- Tools: Trinaldo has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
Trinaldo’s striking has gotten better over the years. For some reason I’ve overlooked looked it, thinking of him as just a wrestler. But his striking is indeed a 60. Even at 42 years old. His striking with Green and Makdessi was close to equal. And he knocked out a top prospect in Herbert. Salikhov’s striking is probably slightly better. He should win the fight. But I could totally see Trinaldo using his wrestling all fight, even if it makes the fight boring, to try and win. Taking Salikhov down again and again. Plus Trinaldo is finally moving up to 170 lbs, so that’s an X factor to watch out for too. He could be better and healthier there. I’m picking Salikhov, but it’s not a confident pick.
Chris’ Pick: Salikhov by decision.
Mason Jones vs Alan Patrick
- Mason Jones
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter and a 6-2 grappler, and a 12-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Jones has near plus striking (65). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Alan Patrick
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Beat John Makdessi and Stevie Ray.
- Tools: Patrick has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has wrestling that’s close to average (55).
When Jones was matched up with Mike Davis, lots of people were picking Jones to win. And I was skeptical. But Jones made a believer out of me. Davis barely edged out the decision win, but it was still a spectacular UFC debut for Mason. I was particularly impressed with Jones’ cardio and pace. Patrick will have nothing for Jones here. Won’t be able to take Jones down. And will get obliterated on the feet. Jones can be had for a little over -300 in most books. He should be much heavier, but isn’t because he’s not a house hold name most are familiar with.
Chris’ Pick: Jones by 2nd round knockout.
Manon Fiorot vs Tabatha Ricci
- Manon Fiorot
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: Fiorot has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Tabatha Ricci
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Tools: Ricci has fringe average striking (45) and average grappling (50).
Fiorot looks like a potential title contender after just one fight. She was going to get a much stiffer test with Maryna Moroz, but Moroz has been scratched. In steps Ricci, who’s taking this fight on a few days notice. My opinion is that Fiorot is the closest thing to a lock as there is in the UFC. Ricci looks decent. But all 5 of her wins are over tomato cans. Not one of her opponents has a winning record. Ricci has never fought anyone remotely close to Fiorot’s skill level. And now she comes in on just a few days notice. And more upsets happen with men. Because of the knockout power and the fact that sometimes fluke knockouts happen. These women fight at 115 lbs. Not many of these female fighters at this weight class have real KO power. Ricci’s best tool is her grappling. But she won’t take Fiorot down. Fiorot proved to have at least 55 wrestling. She took Victoria Leonardo down in her UFC debut. The only way Ricci wins is a Mariya Agapova vs Shana Dobson situation. Where Fiorot gets too aggressive going for the finish in the 1st round and gasses herself out. But the odds of that happening are pretty slim. In my opinion, Fiorot at anything around -800 has value. Some books have opened her up at -500. I’m all over it.
Chris’ Pick: Fiorot by 1st round knockout.
Youssef Zalal vs Sean Woodson
- Youssef Zalal
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 8-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Griffin and a 7-0 fighter.
- Tools: Zalal has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Sean Woodson
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Julian Erosa.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 grappler. Beat Kyle Bochniak.
- Tools: Woodson has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has average wrestling (50).
Could be a close fight. On the feet, it’s as close to even as it gets. Both are long, lanky, slick. Great foot work. But Woodson can be taken down. That’s how Julian Erosa beat him. It’s possible that Zalal’s wrestling has improved to a 60, but I’m not entirely sure. It’s at least a 55. And he’s not shy about using it or the fight being boring. Even if Woodson gets up repeatedly, I see Zalal going back to the well because it’s his path to win.
Chris’ Pick: Zalal by decision.
Jordan Leavitt vs Claudio Puelles
- Jordan Leavitt
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
- Tools: Leavitt has fringe average striking (45) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Claudio Puelles
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Puelles has fringe average striking (45) and average grappling (50).
Puelles might have a 2-1 UFC record, but there’s an asterisk. His win over the 8-1 striker, Felipe Silva, Puelles was getting dominated. But Silva got over confident. Decided he was going to take Puelles down to the ground in the 3rd round. And Puelles caught him in a knee bar. Puelles other win was over a 6-5 journeyman who fought on a few days notice. And he got knocked out by Martin Bravo. Bravo has a 1-3 record in the UFC. Not a strong resume. But he’s young and hasn’t fought in close to 2 years, so maybe he comes in improved. With Leavitt, it’s possible his striking is a 50 now. He should have better grappling. It’s not my most confident pick because Puelles is at the age where I expect him to show up better. It could be close.
Chris’ Pick: Leavitt by decision.