Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann
- Anthony Smith
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-3 at 205 lbs. 9-6 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Devin Clark, Alexander Gustafsson, and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Jimmy Crute and Shogun Rua.
- Tools: Smith has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Ryan Spann
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Misha Cirkunov and Lil’ Nog. Submitted Devin Clark. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Tools: Spann has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
The theme of this card is really close fights. Most of those close fights will probably involve the judges, but this one won’t. Spann has never gone 5 rounds in the UFC before. He’s had 25 pro fights and gone 5 rounds outside the UFC once. And Smith has a history of getting finishes towards the end of fights. He’s patient, waits, and has the cardio to turn it up late. Question is, will Spann let him get to that point in the fight and I think it’s not likely. Even though Smith looked much better last time out with Crute. Spann was really close to knocking out Johnny Walker until he got over zealous and Walker instead knocked him out. Spann truly has 70 striking now. Coin flip fight, but I’m less confident in Smith’s striking being graded a 70. And he’s not consistent. I think Spann will make sure that either way, the fight doesn’t last more than 2 rounds so he won’t have to worry about the cardio.
Chris’ Pick: Spann by 1st round knockout.
Ion Cutelaba vs Devin Clark
- Ion Cutelaba
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-5-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
- Key Draws: Fought Dustin Jacoby to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khalil Rountree and Gadzhimurad Antigulov.
- Tools: Cutelaba has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Devin Clark
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alex Nicholson in 2016.
- Key Wins: Beat Alonzo Menifield and Mike Rodriguez.
- Tools: Clark has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Clark’s best attributes are his wrestling and his durability. And I think that last one is the key to the fight. Clark probably won’t be able to take Cutelaba down. Stand up fight. Cutelaba should easily get the better of it. Question though is whether Cutelaba gasses himself out going for the finish. Because if he repeats the same mistake Alonzo Menifield made, Clark could definitely win this fight. But on paper, based on skills I know they have, Cutelaba should get the job done.
Chris’ Pick: Cutelaba by 2nd round knockout.
Ariane Lipski vs Mandy Bohm
- Ariane Lipski
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Luana Carolina, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 12-4 grappler.
- Tools: Lipski has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Mandy Bohm
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 fighter.
- Tools: Bohm has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
I have both graded exactly the same. Bohm comes in at even money +100. Lipski clocks in at -120. Coin flip. So I’m picking Bohm off projection. She hasn’t fought in close to a year. Only 7 pro fights. The odds of her showing up in this fight with improved skills I think is greater than Lipski being improved.
Chris’ Pick: Bohm by split decision.
Arman Tsarukyan vs Christos Giagos
- Arman Tsarukyan
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 16-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler and a 17-4 striker. Knocked out a 15-5 striker. Beat Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Tsarukyan has above average striking (60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and near plus grappling (65).
- Christos Giagos
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Chris Wade.
- Key Wins: Beat Damir Hadzovic and a 10-2 striker.
- Tools: Giagos has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Tsarukyan, who’s well known for almost upsetting Islam Makhachev, in his UFC debut, on short notice, took his wrestling to another level with Frevola. Frevola, who’s best tool is his 60 wrestling, was dominated by Tsarukyan’s wrestling. Have to grade it a 70 now. And I’m pretty confident Giagos has only 55 wrestling. So yeah, pretty good chance Tsarukyan wins. But the big drama in this fight is how heavy the price on Tsarukyan has gotten. -800. 8 to 1 favorite. That’s very chalky.
Chris’ Pick: Tsarukyan by 1st round ground and pound TKO.
Joaquin Buckley vs Antonio Arroyo
- Joaquin Buckley
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jordan Wright, Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision over a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Buckley has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Antonio Arroyo
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 striker. Knocked out a 11-2 striker.
- Tools: Arroyo has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Buckley got knocked out in less than 3 minutes in his last fight with Alessio di Chirico, but KOs happen. He still has his skills. Stand up fight. Buckley has better striking, more power. He should bounce back here.
Chris’ Pick: Buckley by 1st round knockout.
Nathan Maness vs Tony Gravely
- Nathan Maness
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Luke Sanders. Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter and a 15-4 grappler. Beat a 10-0 grappler and a 4-0 grappler. Split decision over a 6-0 grappler.
- Tools: Maness has fringe average striking (45) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Tony Gravely
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 21-6
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 15-5 fighter, an 8-0 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 7-2 wrestler. Split decision over Geraldo de Freitas.
- Tools: Gravely has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
Both of these guys are wrestlers, so they’ll be forced to fight on the feet, although I do think Gravely’s wrestling is slightly better. Gravely’s striking is on another tier. I think he should be favored around -300, so when I see him at -190, I’m just all over it.
Chris’ Pick: Gravely by decision.
Cameron VanCamp vs Nick Motta
- Cameron VanCamp
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 15-5
- Key Losses: Lost to a 32-13 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter. Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: VanCamp has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Nick Motta
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joe Solecki and a 6-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 striker and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Tools: Motta has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
As far as short notice opponents go, VanCamp is pretty good. When I first watched him, I was expecting an 45-50ish fighter, but he has legit 55 grappling. Fought a 10-6 grappler and overwhelmed him on the ground. I do think Motta will be able to get back up when taken down. Will have better striking, better cardio. Could be a close fight, but Motta should squeak out a win.
Chris’ Pick: Motta by decision.
Mike Rodriguez vs Tafon Nchukwi
- Mike Rodriguez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: He knocked out a 7-4 striker and an 8-2 striker.
- Tools: Rodriguez has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Tafon Nchukwi
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out William Knight and an 8-2 striker. Beat Jamie Pickett.
- Tools: Nchukwi has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I have both these guys graded exactly the same although there’s some slight differences. Nchukwi probably has more power, projects to have better striking. But Rodriguez should have the better cardio. Coin flip fight. I’m picking Nchukwi because I think he’s going to show up with better skills after his first career loss.
Chris’ Pick: Nchukwi by decision.
Raquel Pennington vs Pannie Kianzad
- Raquel Pennington
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-6
- Key Wins: Beat Miesha Tate and Marion Reneau. Split decision wins over Irene Aldana and Bethe Correira.
- Tools: Pennington has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Pannie Kianzad
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-5 striker.
- Key Wins: Beat Alexis Davis, Sijara Eubanks, Bethe Correia, and Jessica-Rose Clark.
- Tools: Kianzad has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
Pretty similar to Rodriguez vs Nchukwi, these fighters are really close to identical, which forces me to pick based on how I think there skills will be here. And I see both fighter’s careers going in opposite directions. Kianzad continues to get better and Pennington has 16 UFC fights. Kianzad might be able to use the Holly Holm game plan and frustrate Pennington on the fence. I think she’s stronger and has better wrestling. I also think it’s possible she could improve her striking to a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Kianzad by split decision.
Brandon Jenkins vs Zhu Rong
- Brandon Jenkins
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to an 8-6 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Beat a 9-2 grappler and a well rounded 6-2-1 fighter.
- Tools: Jenkins has average striking (50) and fringe average wrestling (45).
- Zhu Rong
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 16-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a well rounded 15-5 fighter. Submitted a 19-4 grappler.
- Tools: Zhu has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
Zhu’s debut with Kazula Vargas was just all over the place. Zhu got off to a slow start in the 1st. Out struck badly. 2nd round he got out struck 2 to 1. 3rd round Zhu out struck Vargas by a little bit. Vargas got the better of the grappling. I had Zhu with 60 striking and 55 wrestling going into that fight. I was impressed with what he’s done outside the UFC, but I have to downgrade him based on how he looked. It’s possible the jitters just got to Zhu and his tools are better than average, but I have to grade based off of what I’ve seen vs his potential or what he could be. Jenkins is coming off a human highlight reel finish, but the reality is that it was a close fight up until that KO. I have both guys graded close to equal, but projection wise, I expect Zhu to come in improved and should win.
Chris’ Pick: Zhu by decision.
Montel Jackson vs JP Buys
- Montel Jackson
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Beat Felipe Corales.
- Tools: Jackson has near plus striking (65). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- JP Buys
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Buys has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Buys has talent, but he’s running into some tough matchups. And Jackson is his toughest. Buys is most comfortable taking guys down. He wont be able to do that here. He’s coming off a knockout loss and will be forced to stand with Jackson who has 65 striking and power.
Chris’ Pick: Jackson by 2nd round knockout.
Sarah Alpar vs Erin Blanchfield
- Sarah Alpar
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-5
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 5-1 grappler and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Tools: Alpar has average striking (50). She also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Erin Blanchfield
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Tracy Cortez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Majority decision over Kay Hansen.
- Tools: Blanchfield has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Blanchfield at -300 is a little too heavy for me. She’s making her UFC debut. Still growing into her body at 22 years old. Based on what I’ve seen from her outside the UFC, she should be able to stuff Alpar’s take downs or at least get up. She should have better striking. But Alpar hasn’t fought in over a year and could realistically come back with improved striking. Blanchfield should win, but it’s not a lock by any means. Too many unknowns.
Chris’ Pick: Blanchfield by decision.
Impa Kasanganay vs Carlston Harris
- Impa Kasanganay
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Beat Maki Pitolo and an 8-1 wrestler and a 4-0 striker.
- Tools: Kasanganay has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Carlston Harris
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 16-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to an 11-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Submitted a 17-1 grappler. Beat Wellington Turman, a 7-1 striker, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Harris has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Interesting fight because after grading both guys, I thought Kasanganay would be priced around -300. But most books have it close to a pick em! What am I missing here. I’m confident Kasanganay has at least a 60 striking tool. Could be a 65. And I rewatched Harris’ fight with Christian Aguilera in his UFC debut. I wasn’t that impressed. The striking was close to equal. Harris took Aguilera down, but Aguilera got back up not too long after. Harris stunned Aguilera with a shot, wrapped a choke, and got the submission. Fight last less than 3 minutes. Is it possible Harris is better than I think? Yeah. But even if Harris’ striking is a 55 and grappling is a 60, Kasanganay has plenty of margin to still win on the feet, so based on the price, I really like Kasanganay here.
Chris’ Pick: Kasanganay by decision.
Heili Alateng vs Gustavo Lopez
- Heili Alateng
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-8-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 striker. Beat Danaa Batgerel. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Tools: Heili has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Gustavo Lopez
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-2 grappler and a well rounded 11-3 fighter. Submitted a 14-2 striker.
- Tools: Lopez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Heili got obliterated in his last fight with Casey Kenny, but that had more to do with how good Kenny’s striking has become. Doesn’t change the fact that Heili still has well rounded 60 tools. His body has had close to a year to recover from that fight. This is only his 4th UFC fight. I expect him to bounce back and have better striking than Lopez.
Chris’ Pick: Heili by 2nd round knockout.
Hannah Goldy vs Emily Whitmire
- Hannah Goldy
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Beat Gillian Robertson and a 6-2 grappler.
- Tools: Goldy has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Emily Whitmire
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Aleksandra Albu.
- Tools: Whitmire has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Total coin flip fight. On paper, these fighters are as close to equal as it’s going to get. It’s priced accordingly as a near pick em. So you really have to project to pick this fight. Whitmire has 7 UFC fights now. She could be close to her ceiling. Goldy is more likely to come in here improved.
Chris’ Pick: Goldy by split decision.