Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington
- Kamaru Usman
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 14-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington. Beat Jorge Masvidal, Leon Edwards, Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Tyron Woodley.
- Tools: Usman has plus striking (70) and near plus plus wrestling (75).
- Colby Covington
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 11-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tyron Woodley. Beat Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, and Robbie Lawler.
- Tools: Covington has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has near plus plus wrestling (75).
Okay, here me out on this one because I’m probably going to be in the minority on this pick. The first fight. The striking was close to equal. All rounds. And that’s with Covington breaking his jaw in the 3rd round. If that fight had gone to the judges, it would’ve been a coin flip as to who won. So what’s happened since then. It would appear that Usman has gotten better. And he has in one aspect and that’s his power. He really sells out for power now. But. When he fought Burns, Burns rocked him in the 1st. Burns was landing. The striking was pretty close to equal. Until Usman knocked him out. The Masvidal fight, Usman got the spectacular KO. But going into that, the striking was close to equal. Showing to me that Usman might have 70 power now, but the striking tool itself is still a 70. What’s Covington done since the Usman fight? He took on Woodley and dominated him on the feet. The striking at one point towards the end of the fight was 123 to 51. And I know Woodley’s striking was a 65. Woodley showed that in his fight with Vicente Luque. Which means that Covington improved his striking to a 75. So I have Covington as the better striker. Both get to knockouts differently. Usman will be more dangerous early on. Covington is more dangerous towards the end of the fight, that’s when he normally gets his KOs. Look, Covington is obviously no lock. And I wouldn’t be the least surprised if Usman won. I know how often fighters who win the first time, win the rematch. But if I was pricing this fight, I’d have Covington priced at -125. But the odds makers currently have Covington at +235. How could I say no to that value?
Chris’ Pick: Covington by decision.
Rose Namajunas vs Zhang Weili
- Rose Namajunas
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Submitted Joanne Calderwood and Michelle Waterson. Beat Tecia Torres. Split decision over Jessica Andrade.
- Tools: Namajunas has near plus plus striking (75) and plus grappling (70).
- Zhang Weili
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jessica Andrade. Beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Tecia Torres.
- Tools: Zhang has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).
I’m not lazy. I promise haha. But the last time these women were going to fight, it was over after a minute. So we didn’t get to see how the fight would play out. So nothing has changed tool wise in my opinion. And I’m copying and pasting what I wrote in April. There’s a lot of people picking Zhang in this fight. And I think they’re making a mistake in assuming she has high level wrestling. Because we haven’t seen it. She has not fought a high level grappler or wrestler. She hasn’t. I remember when she got a title shot at Andrade after a 3-0 UFC record. She beat Danielle Taylor, Jessica Aguilar, and Tecia Torres. When she beat Andrade, she blitzed her in the first minute, knocked her out. Then she had that war with Joanna. Again. No high level grapplers. Does she have at least above average wrestling? Yeah. Is it going to be good enough to stop take downs from Namajunas? I’m not sure. If you think Zhang can stuff them, it’s mostly projection because we haven’t seen it. And for what it’s worth, I think Namajunas has better striking. Zhang out struck Torres. That’s good. The quick knockout, those happen sometimes. Joanna? She’s not the same fighter she once was. Going into that Zhang fight, Joanna had lost 3 out of her last 5 fights. 2 of those losses were to Namajunas. Rose was a +170 underdog in the first fight. Now she’s -125. I think there’s still a lot of value in that price. Especially when you consider the percentage of fighters who win the first fight that then go on to win the rematch as well.
Chris’ Pick: Namajunas by 2nd round submission.
Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler
- Justin Gaethje
- Age: 32
- UFC record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tony Ferguson, Edson Barboza, and Donald Cerrone.
- Tools: Gaethje has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Michael Chandler
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 22-5
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Eddie Alvarez. Knock out loss and split decision loss to Will Brooks.
- Key Wins: Submitted Eddie Alvarez and a 14-1 wrestler. Knocked out Dan Hooker, a well rounded 14-1 fighter, and a 14-3 grappler.
- Tools: Chandler has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
I’ll admit that I’m not 100% sure of what to think of Gaethje’s striking. I had him as a 70 striker going into the Ferguson fight. He out classed Ferguson. Upgraded him to a 75. Then he fought Khabib, who’s striking I had as a 60. And amazingly, the striking between the two in the 1st round was even. But it was a crazy pace. What would have happened in they traded strikes for a few more rounds? We’ll never know. But I don’t think that’s enough to downgrade Gaethje’s striking. I’ll leave it as a 75 grade. Which means I think he’s a better striker than Chandler. He’s got more experience in big fights. Probably better cardio. I like Gaethje here.
Chris’ Pick: Gaethje by 2nd round knockout.
Shane Burgos vs Billy Quarantillo
- Shane Burgos
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marwan Amirkhani and Charles Rosa. Split decision over Cub Swanson.
- Tools: Burgos has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Billy Quarantillo
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Michel Quinones.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez, Kyle Nelson, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 5-1 wrestler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Spike Carlyle.
- Tools: Quarantillo has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65).
I was very surprised when Quarantillo went into his fight with Benitez as the underdog. Maybe it’s because the betting public thought Benitez’s wrestling was better than it actually was. In any case, it was Quarantillo’s take downs and grappling that got the job done. And he’ll have to follow the same blueprint to beat Burgos. Burgos’ wrestling hasn’t been tested as much lately. I have his wrestling at a 60. He’ll need to get back up after getting taken down and keep up with Quarantillo’s plus cardio. He should. And Burgos’ striking is way better.
Chris’ Pick: Burgos by decision.
Frankie Edgar vs Marlon Vera
- Frankie Edgar
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 1-1 at 135 lbs. 8-5 at 145 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes and Yair Rodriguez. Submitted Cub Swanson. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Charles Oliveira, Urijah Faber, and Jeremy Stephens.
- Tools: Edgar has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Marlon Vera
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 11-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Douglas Silva de Andrade. Lost a controversial decision to Yadong Song.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Sean O’Malley, Frankie Saenz and Andre Ewell. Beat Davey Grant.
- Tools: Vera has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
I’ve been going back and forth on where to grade Vera’s striking. His fight with O’Malley was so short. O’Malley was slightly out striking him, but Vera got O’Malley out of there with the leg kicks. Then there was the Aldo fight where the striking was close to equal. And the striking with Grant was close to equal, but I thought Grant had 65 striking. Maybe Grant improved his striking to a 70 in the Vera fight. I’m not completely sure. But I’m leaving Vera’s striking as a 70 for now. I don’t like this fight for Edgar though. It’s likely that cutting all this weight to be at 135 lbs at his age, he’s probably not able to take much damage. He did okay in the Munhoz fight because Munhoz only has 55 power. But when you put him with a guy with plus power like Sandhagen, it’s trouble for him. I just don’t see how Edgar wins this fight. He might get a couple take downs but he won’t be able to hold Vera there all fight. Vera’s just going to have too much of a power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Vera by 2nd round knockout.
Alex Pereira vs Andreas Michailidis
- Alex Pereira
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Pereira has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Andreas Michailidis
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 wrestler and a 9-3 grappler.
- Tools: Michailidis has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
This whole fight is going to come down to figuring out how good Perreira’s wrestling and take down defense is. We know what he can do on the feet. His last MMA fight was close to a year ago. Based on how he looked, it’s likely his wrestling has gotten better, to a 55. I know I’m projecting just a tad. Worst case, his wrestling is a 50, Michailidis gets a couple take downs. But I do think Ferreira will be able to get back up.
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 1st round knockout.
Al Iaquinta vs Bobby Green
- Al Iaquinta
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Donald Cerrone.
- Key Wins: Beat Kevin Lee. Split decision over Jorge Masvidal.
- Tools: Iaquinta has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Bobby Green
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-7-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Beat Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
- Tools: Green has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
I can understand Green being the favorite here, around -150. He’s been active. Almost upset Rafael Fiziev. And Iaquinta hasn’t fought in 2 years. But if you look at the skills, they slightly favor Iaquinta. And I have more confidence in Iaquinta’s striking being a 65 than Green. Iaquinta has more power, better wrestling. Might be close, but Iaquinta should edge it out.
Chris’ Pick: Iaquinta by decision.
Phil Hawes vs Chris Curtis
- Phil Hawes
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat Kyle Daukaus. Majority decision over Nassourdine Imavov.
- Tools: Hawes has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Chris Curtis
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 26-8
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 12-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 13-3 fighter. a 10-1 striker, an 8-2 striker and an 18-5 wrestler. Beat a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 18-4 fighter. Majority decision win over an 11-4 striker.
- Tools: Curtis has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
Curtis finally making it to the UFC is a nice story. But I can’t see anyway he beats Hawes. I watched Curtis’ fight on The Contender. I watched his fight with UFC vet Kyle Stewart. I’ve seen Curtis getting taken down and controlled against the fence by way worse wrestlers than Hawes. So I see Hawes taking Curtis down if he wants. Or Hawes has the ability to knock Curtis out. Hawes is priced around -350. I’d jump on that while you still can. I see that price ballooning up to -500 as we get closer to the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Hawes by 2nd round knockout.
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Nassourdine Imavov
- Edmen Shahbazyan
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Tavares and Charles Byrd.
- Tools: Shahbazyan plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Nassourdine Imavov
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Phil Hawes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ian Heinisch, a 3-0 wrestler, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Jordan Williams and a 12-4 grappler.
- Tools: Imavov has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60).
Talk about regency bias. Look. Brad Tavares. He’s really good. Won 7 out of his last 10 fights. His only 3 losses have been to Robert Whittaker, Israel Adesanya. And Shahbazyan. Adesanya, he won by decision over Tavares. Shahbazyan knocked Tavares out in less than 3 minutes. But then Shahbazyan losses to Derek Brunson and Jack Hermansson and he comes in as an underdog with Imavov?? I rewatched Shahbazyan vs Hermansson and it was a closer fight than I remember. One could even make a case that Shahbazyan won the fight based on him winning the first 2 rounds. Shahbazyan’s wrestling is a true 65, he just needs better cardio. But when this fight was announced, I genuinely thought Shahbazyan would be a -300 favorite. Yes, Imavov looked great knocking out Ian Heinisch. But before that, he got out struck by Phil Hawes. And Hawes is good, but his striking isn’t on the level as Shahbazyan. I saw Shahbazyan at +130, I jumped all over it.
Chris’ Pick: Shahbazyan by 1st round knockout.
Ian Garry vs Jordan Williams
- Ian Garry
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler and a 6-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 17-6 fighter.
- Tools: Garry has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jordan Williams
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-5
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 5-0 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gregory Rodrigues and a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Williams has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
If MMA had top 100 prospect lists like other sports do, it’s possible Garry would be #1 on that list for 2021. He’s an elite prospect. Has a very mature approach. Polished. Fought UFC vet Rostem Akman and beat him way worse than Jake Matthews did. I feel bad for Williams, who’s a decent prospect with an inspirational background. He’s strength of schedule in the UFC is right up there with anybody. The reality is that Williams striking isn’t anywhere near what Garry’s is. I mean, Mickey Gall hurt Williams on the feet, so you can only imagine what Garry will be able to do.
Chris’ Pick: Garry by 1st round knockout.
Gian Villante vs Chris Barnett
- Gian Villante
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 0-2 at heavyweight. 7-10 overall.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Tom Lawlor and Shogun Rua. Split decision losses to Patrick Cummins and Sam Alvey.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Corey Anderson in 2015.
- Tools: Villante has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Chris Barnett
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 21-7
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-3 striker. Lost to a 14-8 striker. Split decision loss to an 8-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 22-5 fighter.
- Tools: Barnett has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
Should be an entertaining brawl. Based on what the lines are in the market, seems like people think this fight is a coin flip, that they’re both graded close to equal. I disagree. Villante fought Maurice Greene and Villante was winning that fight with his striking until Greene caught him in a submission. And maybe some think that Barnett has 55 striking, but I disagree on that too. Barnett has had some blah losses. And when he fought Rothwell, Rothwell was easily out striking him. I think Villante is the better brawler/striker and gets it done in a sloppy fight.
Chris’ Pick: Villante by decision.
Dustin Jacoby vs John Allan
- Dustin Jacoby
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 15-5-1
- UFC Record: 4-0-1 at 205 lbs.
- Key Draws: Fought Ion Cutelaba to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darren Stewart, Justin Ledet, a 10-3 grappler and a 7-0 grappler. Beat Maxim Grishin and a 7-2 grappler.
- Tools: Jacoby has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- John Allan
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-6
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 striker and a 6-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 12-4 fighter.
- Tools: Allan has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
All due respect to Alexa Camur, but this fight got an upgrade by swapping in Jacoby. As shown in his last fight with Darren Stewart, Jacoby might be starting to unlock some power in his hands. He lacked that before. The only path to victory I see for Allan is if Jacoby gasses out in the middle of the fight. Line opened with Jacoby at -360. I’m all over it. There’s a bit of margin for Jacoby to win here.
Chris’ Pick: Jacoby by 2nd round knockout.
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Bruno Souza
- Melsik Baghdasaryan
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Collin Anglin. Beat a 4-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Baghdasaryan has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Bruno Souza
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Split decision wins over Kamuela Kirk and a 7-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Souza has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Love this fight. All due respect to TJ Laramie, but I view Souza as an upgrade here. Baghdasaryan and Souza are both elite prospects. Strikers. Souza is super impressive. He has a split decision win over UFC fighter Kamuela Kirk, which holds a lot of weight, as Kirk beat Makwan Amirkhani on short notice in his UFC debut. Souza is a protégé of Lyoto Machida and fights a lot like Machida. Karate base. But he’s more about volume and defense. 10 wins and only 1 KO. And that’s going to be a problem against an equally skilled striker in Baghdasaryan who will have a lot more power. The reason I’m not going to bet on Baghdasaryan though is that I see Souza having way better cardio, despite coming in on short notice. I see Baghdasaryan winning the first 2 rounds, but then gassing out and Souza making it close in the 3rd.
Chris’ Pick: Baghdasaryan by decision.
Ode Osbourne vs Carlos Vergara
- Ode Osbourne
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Osbourne has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and and average grappling (50).
- Carlos Vergara
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 9-2-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bruno Korea and Jacob Silva.
- Tools: Vergara has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
I was pretty stunned when Vergara knocked out Korea. I thought Korea would be able to take him down and go to work, but Vergara just blitzed him as soon as the fight started. Going into that matchup, I graded Vergara with 50 striking. Maybe it’s a 55 and I have him graded there for now, but I’m not too sure. So this could be a close fight. But Osbourne’s striking could be more like a 60. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Vergara won, but Osbourne is most likely to win.
Chris’ Pick: Osbourne by decision.