Volkanovski vs Korean Zombie, Yan vs Sterling, Burns vs Chimaev Fight Picks – UFC 273 – April 9, 2022

Published on by Chris Schweppe

Alexander Volkanovski vs The Korean Zombie

  • Alexander Volkanovski
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 10-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes. Beat Brian Ortega, Max Holloway twice and Jose Aldo.
  • Tools: Volkanovski has plus plus striking paired with plus power (80-70). He also has near plus plus wrestling (75).
  • The Korean Zombie
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 7-3
  • Key Losses: Got knocked out by Yair Rodriguez with 1 second left in their fight.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Edgar and Renato Moicano. Beat Dan Ige.
  • Tools: Zombie has plus striking (70). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60). 

Simple MMA math can tell you that this isn’t a competitive fight. Even before Ortega went all in on those 3rd round chokes, Volkanovski was out landing Ortega in the stand up. So I have to upgrade Volkanovski’s to the rare, top of the scale 80 grade, albeit with 70 power. Zombie did bounce back to edge out Ige. But the line with Volkanovski at -500 is justified. I don’t see any path to victory for the Zombie. Volkanovski has proved to be durable, has better wrestling. And has showed that his cardio is on par, if not better than Holloway’s. I think as we get closer to the fight, Volkanovski will balloon up in price to maybe as high as -800 and the -500 price will prove to be solid value as a near lock.

Chris’ Pick: Volkanovski by decision.

Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling

  • Petr Yan
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 8-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Douglas Silva de Andrade and Urijah Faber. Beat Cory Sandhagen, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
  • Tools: Yan has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has plus wrestling (70).
  • Aljamain Sterling
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 12-3
  • Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Bryan Caraway.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Cory Sandhagen and Cody Stamann. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns.
  • Tools: Sterling has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has near plus plus grappling (75).

I’m really tempted to bet on Sterling. Oddsmakers have opened Yan as a monster -400 favorite. Sterling comes back at +300. So why bet Sterling? Because the line is way, way too heavy on the Yan side. The first time they fought, the line was a pick em, although some books had Yan as a small -125 favorite. And what happened? Well, on the surface, you can say Yan was on his way to winning the fight before the illegal knee. And they would be right. But why was he on his way to winning? Because Sterling didn’t manage his gas tank well. He was gassed out by the 4th. Going into the 4th round though, Sterling was winning the fight. He clearly won the 1st and the 2nd. Matter of fact, by the time the fight was over, Sterling did out land Yan 79 to 64 in distance significant strikes. So Sterling did prove he has 75 striking. And for what it’s worth, I thought Sandhagen beat Yan. I thought the judges got it wrong. Close fight. But riddle me this. Who wins this fight if Sterling doesn’t gas out? What happens if he comes in more efficient with enough cardio to last all 5 rounds? I can tell you it’ll be close. Sterling will mix in some take downs. Yan might have a little more power. I actually think each guy has a 50% chance. Yan should have better cardio. But Sterling should have better grappling. So for those that like to bet underdogs on near coin flip fights, Sterling’s got great value. Yan is slightly more likely to win. I think a fair price is Yan at -125, what it was the first fight. But I’m picking the upset because I can’t ignore Sterling at +365.

Chris’ Pick: Sterling by split decision.

Gilbert Burns vs Khamzat Chimaev

  • Gilbert Burns
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 6-1 at 170 lbs. 13-4 overall.
  • Key Losses: Lost to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazares.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Demian Maia. Submitted Alex Oliveira and Mike Davis. Beat Stephen Thompson, Tyron Woodley, Alexey Kunchenko, and Gunnar Nelson.
  • Tools: Burns has plus striking (70) and plus grappling (70).
  • Khamzat Chimaev
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 10-0
  • UFC Record: 4-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jingliang Li. Knocked out Gerald Meerschaert, a 10-2 striker, a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a 4-0 grappler.
  • Tools: Chimaev has near plus striking (65). He also has near plus plus wrestling (75) and near plus grappling (65).

This is the most insane line ever haha. The hype on Chimaev is almost unprecedented. It’s in Connor McGregor territory when he was first coming up. And it’s both oddsmakers and the betting public. Oddsmakers opened Chimaev up around -375. Which is insane. What’s more insane is most of the money has immediately come in on the Chimaev side, making Chimaev now a -425 favoite. Insanity. What I’m trying to say is that there’s no logic or data or evidence to support Chimaev even being a 3 to 1 favorite. Look, we have not seen his striking. 4 fights into his UFC career, we’ve seen him land 4 significant strikes at distance. 4. That’s not a sample size. I can grade Chimaev’s wrestling a 75. He showed that by dominating Li who has 60 wrestling. I’ve seen Chimaev strike before he got to the UFC. And I just can’t grade it past a 65 at this point. I mean, what are the odds that his striking is a 70. I’ve seen the striking. He might have gotten better since he’s been in the UFC, but outside the UFC, it wasn’t a 70. His main training partner the past couple months has been Darren Till for a reason, to work on his stand up. And in this fight. I know Burns has 70 grappling and 70 striking. He’ll be able to get back up. He might even be able to submit Chimaev. On the feet, I just don’t see Burns losing there. Or it could be Burns out striking him. I feel strongly, a fair line on this fight would have Burns as a -135 favorite. Because even when Chimaev takes Burns down, he’s going to be in danger of Burns’ grappling. But because of Chimaev’s popularity, he’s ballooning up in price. As I’m writing this, Chimaev is up to -700. That’s people think Chimaev is another Islam Makhachev. Another Khabib. I can’t pass up betting the Burns side. I think he has a 55% chance of winning and he’s priced at +425. It’s incredible. Don’t get too many opportunities at such a live underdog at that price.

Chris’ Pick: Burns by decision.

Mackenzie Dern vs Tecia Torres

  • Mackenzie Dern
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 6-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Nina Nunes, Randa Markos, and Hannah Cifers. Beat Virna Jandiroba. Split decision over Ashley Yoder.
  • Tools: Dern has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has plus grappling (70).
  • Tecia Torres
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 10-7
  • Key Wins: Beat Angela Hill, Sam Hughes, Michelle Waterson, and Brianna van Buren.
  • Tools: Torres has plus striking paired with average power (70-50). She also has above average wrestling (60).

This is a really simple fight. Just like the Dern vs Marina Rodriguez fight. The question is: can Dern keep Torres on the ground? That’s it. With Rodriguez, Dern couldn’t. Got Rodriguez down and kept her there in the 2nd, but probably gassed out going for all those submissions. And the data says Rodriguez out struck Dern 124 to 36 in distance significant strikes. Thus, I’m keeping Dern’s striking at a 55. But luckily for Dern, Torres’ wrestling is only a 60. She was able to neutralize Hill’s wrestling, but wasn’t able to show superiority either. I expect this fight to be similar to the Dern vs Nina Nunes fight. I’d price Dern at -250.

Chris’ Pick: Dern by 2nd round submission.

Mark O. Madsen vs Vinc Pichel

  • Mark O. Madsen
  • Age: 37
  • Pro Record: 11-0
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-4 striker. Beat Austin Hubbard and a well rounded 12-4 fighter. Split decision over Clay Guida.
  • Tools: Madsen has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • Vinc Pichel
  • Age: 39
  • UFC Record: 10-3
  • Key Wins: Beat Austin Hubbard, Jim Miller, Roosevelt Roberts, and Joaquim Silva.
  • Tools: Pichel has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).

Madsen is going to need some good cardio to win here. I understand Pichel being favored at -150. Makes sense. But Madsen isn’t afraid to wrestle all fight. And Pichel showed in his last fight with 60 wrestler Hubbard that Pichel can be taken down. Madsen is likely to have more success. I expect Pichel to land more strikes on the feet. And the judging makes this fight tricky too as some judges don’t put much value in grappling control. There’s no way I’m betting such a coin flip fight, but if I had to pick a winner between the two, I think Madsen gets it done.

Chris’ Pick: Madsen by split decision.

Ian Garry vs Darian Weeks

  • Ian Garry
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 8-0
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jordan Williams, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 17-6 fighter.
  • Tools: Garry has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Darian Weeks
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 5-1
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Tools: Weeks has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

On the surface, you could justify giving Garry a 65 striking tool. That’s where I had him graded going into his UFC debut. I rarely do that. Very rare that fighter walk into the UFC with any 65 tools. And then he knocked out Williams in the 1st round. So I was right. Right? Well, the numbers say I might not have been. Williams actually out struck Garry 22 to 18. And I had Williams with 55 striking going into the fight. So what happened? Garry said after the fight he got off to a slow start because of the UFC jitters. Making his UFC debut at Madison Square Garden. There could be some truth to that. Maybe Williams came in improved. I think the most likely outcome is they both had 60 grade striking in the fight. So maybe Garry got off to a slow start. He’s still an elite prospect. He could very well have 65 striking. It wouldn’t surprise me. But I’m picking Weeks because of the wrestling he showed off. Took on Bryan Barberena on a few days notice. Line closed with Barberena around -125. I thought that was crazy. But turned out to be very accurate. Weeks got the better of the wrestling, but striking was close to equal. Now Weeks comes in with a full camp. Garry will probably be the favorite when the oddsmakers set the line, because of all his hype, but I would have Weeks at -135. He showed way more in his UFC debut than Garry did.

Chris’ Pick: Weeks by decision.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Marcin Tybura

  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 6-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Augusto Sakai, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Andrei Arlovski.
  • Tools: Rozenstruik has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
  • Marcin Tybura
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 8-6
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Walt Harris and Greg Hardy. Beat Andrei Arlovski and Sergei Spivac.
  • Tools: Tybura has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus wrestling (70).

Tybura’s striking took a huge step forward in his last fight with Alexander Volkov. Tybura lost, Volkov landed more, but it was close! It wasn’t a blow out. It was so impressive, I’ve upgraded Tybura’s striking to a 65, albeit with 55 power. But the same can’t be said for Rozenstruik. He took on Curtis Blaydes. Lost because of the wrestling. I didn’t see any improvement there and have it as a 60 grade. And that won’t be good enough to stuff take downs from Tybura either. I see this fight going really similar to the Rozenstruik vs Blaydes fight. I’d price Tybura at -225.

Chris’ Pick: Tybura by decision.

Raquel Pennington vs Aspen Ladd

  • Raquel Pennington
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 12-6
  • Key Wins: Submitted Macy Chiasson. Beat Pannie Kianzad, Miesha Tate and Marion Reneau. Split decision wins over Irene Aldana and Bethe Correira.
  • Tools: Pennington has plus striking paired with average power (70-50). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • Aspen Ladd
  • Age: 26
  • UFC Record: 4-1 at 135 lbs. 4-2 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Yana Kunitskaya. Beat Sijara Eubanks.
  • Tools: Ladd has near plus striking (65) and plus wrestling (70).

Really tough fight to pick. And Ladd is especially tough to pick because her last fight with Norma Dumont was so unusual. It reminded me of Francis Ngannou when he fought Derrick Lewis. Gun shy the whole fight, not wanting to let the hands go at all. When Ladd fought Kunitskaya, striking was close to equal there too. And Pennington proved last time out, that once and for all, her 70 grade striking is back. After her win over Kianzad, I still had her striking graded a 65, but it was borderline a 70. But I can’t deny her anymore after she clearly out struck Chiasson. Normally, I’d say Pennington has the edge to win here. Ladd looked terrible in her last fight. Pennington is getting on a roll. But let’s look at the fact that Pennington is taking this fight on 2 week’s notice. She might not have her usual cardio. Can’t discount that. And Ladd seems to be most comfortable wrestling. She can do that here. That’s how Pennington lost her last fight, with Holm clinching and wrestling the whole time. And let’s not forget Ladd has fight ending ground and pound. Probably the best in the division next to Amanda Nunes. Ladd’s goal here has to be to tire Pennington out and frustrate her. But who knows what the judges do with this one. I’m picking Ladd because she’s not going to care if the fight is boring and will wrestle the whole time if that’s what she has to do to win. I think this should be a pick em with both at -110.

Chris’ Pick: Ladd by split decision.

Mickey Gall vs Mike Malott

  • Mickey Gall
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 5-4
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Diego Sanchez. Lost to Mike Perry
  • Key Wins: Submitted Sage Northcutt.
  • Tools: Gall has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).
  • Mike Malott
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 7-1-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Draws: Fought a 5-4 striker to a majority draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted a 8-0 striker, a 6-0 wrestler, and a 3-0 grappler.
  • Tools: Malott has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65).

Interesting fight. Malott looks like an elite prospect. I might be a tad high on grading his tools, but I think they’re the most accurate assessment of where he’s at with so little time in the cage the past few years. Gall’s last fight with Alex Morono is very helpful in showing where he’s at. I’m confident where I’ve graded him. It’s possible Malott could catch Gall in a submission, but more than likely this is a stand up fight. Malott should have more power, but it’s likely Gall will have better cardio and could land more. I’d price Malott at -175.

Chris’ Pick: Malott by decision.

Jared Vanderaa vs Alexei Oleinik

  • Jared Vanderaa
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 2-3
  • Key Losses: Lost to a 4-3 striker.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a 3-0 fighter. Beat Justin Tafa.
  • Tools: Vanderaa has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Aleksei Oleinik
  • Age: 44
  • UFC Record: 8-7
  • Key Wins: Submitted Maurice Greene, Travis Browne, and Mark Hunt. Knocked out Jared Rosholt. Split decision win over Fabricio Werdum.
  • Tools: Oleinik has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).

Oleinik is towards the end of his career. He’s lost 5 out of his last 7. But huge credit to him as he’s still fighting at 44 years old, which is crazy. And I also have to acknowledge that all 5 of the losses have been against top #10 opponents. And I could be wrong, but despite the age and losing all these fights, I still think his grappling is a 65. Vanderaa steps in on less than 2 weeks notice. And what this fight really boils down to, is has Vanderaa shored up his wrestling? Last couple fights I’ve seen Vanderaa, I think his wrestling is a still a 55. He took on Alexandr Romanov. Got up from a take down in the 1st round, but after that, couldn’t get up anymore and Romanov ended the fight in the 2nd round. I don’t think Romanov has 70 wrestling, based on what he did with Juan Espino. I think his wrestling is a 65. Long story short, I think Oleinik will be able to take Vanderaa down and submit him. Odds aren’t out yet. But I wouldn’t all be surprised if Vanderaa is the favorite, despite the short camp. Oleinik is one of the most disrespected fighters in the UFC when it comes to betting and he’s won me many an upset. I’m not going to agree with the oddsmakers, but I think a fair price is Oleinik at -175.

Chris’ Pick: Oleinik by 2nd round submission.

Josh Fremd vs Anthony Hernandez

  • Josh Fremd
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 9-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Submitted a 5-1 wrestler. Split decision over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
  • Tools: Fremd has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Anthony Hernandez
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 8-2
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Brendan Allen.
  • Tools: Hernandez has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average grappling (60).

Hernandez’s last two fights, there’s not much to glean from it. Got dominated by Vieira in the 1st, came back after when Vieira gassed out. Before that, got knocked out by Kevin Holland in less than a minute. Before that, Hernandez took on Jun Yong Park, who was making his UFC debut. And Hernandez got the better of the grappling. I have Park’s wrestling graded a 60 right now. I think he’s improved. But if his wrestling was a 60 making his UFC debut, that would give Hernandez 65 grappling and I highly doubt he’s that high. Not after getting throttled in the 1st round by Vieira. Even if Vieira was emptying the gas tank. 60 grappling is more realistic. Fremd steps in on less than 2 weeks notice. Has fought decent competition. I watched him submit a 5-1 wrestler, but it was more of a knock down, take down, get the choke in type finish. I’m decently confident his striking is a 50 with how he got knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues in 2 minutes. Probably 55 grappling. But this fight will likely come down to where Fremd’s striking is at. Hernandez should win. Should have better cardio. Should have better striking. But Fremd likely has more power and if he shows up with 55 striking, Hernandez could have problems. Oddsmakers have opened Hernandez at -165. I think that’s about right. I think -200 is a fair price for him.

Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by decision.

Kay Hansen vs Piera Rodriguez

  • Kay Hansen
  • Age: 22
  • Pro Record: 7-5
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jihn Yu Frey and 4-1 striker. Knocked out an 8-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
  • Tools: Hansen has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average grappling (60).
  • Piera Rodriguez
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 7-0
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 13-4 grappler and a 3-1 grappler. Beat an 8-2 striker.
  • Tools: Rodriguez has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Rodriguez came into her Contender fight with Valesca Machado as a big -425 favorite. The betting public seemed to be convinced she had the better striking. But grading these prospects before they get to the UFC can be tough. Turns out the striking was close to equal. So which one is it? Is Rodriguez’s striking not as good as we thought or is Machado better than we thought? I tend to think it’s more of the former. That they both have 60 striking. With Hansen, I wasn’t surprised that she couldn’t take Jasmine Jasudavicius down. I was surprised she was able to keep up with the striking. It was close to equal the first 2 rounds. It’s possible Hansen’s striking is a 60, but I’m not quite there yet. I’d price Rodriguez as a -150 favorite. Probably better striking, definitely more power. But Hansen’s relentless grappling and cardio could give Rodriguez problems in the second half of the fight.

Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by split decision.

Julio Arce vs Daniel Gustavo Santos

  • Julio Arce
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 4-3
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sheymon Moraes.
  • Key Wins: Beat Dan Ige.
  • Tools: Arce has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
  • Daniel Gustavo Santos
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 8-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 11-3-1 fighter.
  • Tools: Santos has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).

Normally I wouldn’t bet on a fight thats has a UFC newcomer. There’s just a lot of unknowns. You can watch a fighter outside the UFC but it’s really hard to grade their tools because it’s hard to pin down exactly how good their opponents are. I watched Santos take on a well rounded 7-1 grappler and he looked good. First round KO via body kick. I think he has 55 striking, but it all depends on how good that opponent really is. That said, I am comfortable betting Arce because of the margin in the striking and wrestling. Even if Santos is better than I think, Arce should still win. It’s very, very rare for fighters to walk into the UFC with 65 tools. Victor Henry recently pulled it off against Raoni Barcelos. But he’s a rare exception to the rule. Arce might have got knocked out by Yadong Song in his last fight, but I’m confident he has 65 striking, at least 60 wrestling. Arce is a very steep ask for Santos in his UFC debut and I think it’s too much. I’d have Arce at -325.

Chris’ Pick: Arce by 2nd round knockout.

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