Luque vs Muhammad, Barralho vs Omargadzhiev, Baeza vs Fialho Fight Picks – April 16, 2022

Vicente Luque vs Belal Muhammad

  • Vicente Luque
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 14-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Belal Muhammad, Chad Laprise, and Bryan Barbarena. Submitted and knocked out Niko Price. Also submitted Michael Chiesa and Tyron Woodley.
  • Tools: Luque has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
  • Belal Muhammad
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 11-3
  • Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban. 
  • Key Wins: Beat Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, Lyman Good, Chance Rencountre, and Randy Brown. 
  • Tools: Muhammad has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus wrestling (70).

Very interesting fight that will come down to answering the question: just how good is Muhammad’s wrestling? I had it graded as a 65 going into his Thompson fight. And I was pretty confident Thompson had 65 wrestling as well. Thompson had just fought Gilbert Burns. Thompson got taken down repeatedly, but was able to get back up most of the time. I was pretty confident that most of the Muhammad vs Thompson fight would be on the feet. But instead Muhammad took Thompson down and was able to keep him there. Something Burns, who has 70 grappling, was not able to do. So what happen? Is it possible that Belal now has 75 wrestling? Or has Thompson’s wrestling regressed, being that he’s 38 years old? I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. I’m not 100% sure but I’m grading Muhammad’s wrestling a 70 for now. Could be a 75. If it is a 75, Muhammad will probably win by taking Luque down and keeping him there. Yes, Luque did submit Chiesa. Looks great. But the win was more the result of him taking advantage of a Chiesa mistake. Chiesa took Luque down. Went hard for submissions. Almost caught Luque. Put his foot on the gas a bit too hard. Maybe an adrenaline dump. And after all those submission attempts, Chiesa left his neck out in a vulnerable spot. Luque took advantage. I doubt Muhammad makes the same mistake. He’s more of a wrestler that chooses position over submission. I do think Luque will have a monster power advantage and that over the course of 5 rounds, Luque will eventually catch him. I would price Luque at -125.

Chris’ Pick: Luque by 2nd round knockout.


Caio Borralho vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

  • Caio Borralho
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 10-1
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat a 10-2 striker and a 7-0 grappler.
  • Tools: Borralho has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
  • Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 13-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Submitted a 7-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
  • Tools: Omargadzhiev has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).

There’s no way I’m betting this fight. I just haven’t seen enough of Omargadhiev. I have his wrestling as a 60 for now but could be a 65. So the question is going to be can Borralho get back up after taken down. Because I’m pretty sure on the feet he’ll get the better of the striking. It didn’t earn him a UFC contract, but I believe that Borralho’s striking is a 60 based on him out striking Aaron Jeffrey, who I have as a 55 striker. Close fight. Omargadzhiev should have more power. Literal coin flip, but I think Borralho is most likely to win by landing more strikes than Omargadzhiev. I think Borralho should be at -125.

Chris’ Pick: Borralho by split decision.


Miguel Baeza vs Andre Fialho

  • Miguel Baeza
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • UFC Record: 4-2
  • Key WIns: Knocked out Matt Brown. Submitted Takashi Sato. Beat a 10-3 striker.
  • Tools: Baeza has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
  • Andre Fialho
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 14-4
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 striker.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and another well rounded 7-1 fighter. Majority decision over a 10-4 grappler.
  • Tools: Fialho has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).

Fialho is a really good prospect, but he’s really been thrown into the deep end right away. Fought Michel Pereira on a few days notice. Now takes on top prospect Baeza. I’m confident Pereira has 65 striking. And the way the numbers look in his fight with Fialho, it looks like Fialho has 55 striking. But the striking was close to equal in the 1st round and then Fialho faded after that. Therefore, I think Fialho’s striking is more like a 60 grade, but I could be wrong. With Baeza, I still believe his striking is a 65, despite two losses in a row. I think him getting knocked out by Khaos Williams is a result of Williams improving, rather than Baeza not being as good as we thought. I think Baeza should be a -325 favorite.

Chris’ Pick: Baeza by decision.


Mayra Bueno Silva vs Yanan Wu

  • Mayra Bueno Silva
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 3-2-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Montana de la Rosa to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter in her 1st pro fight. Split decision over a well rounded 7-1 fighter in her 3rd pro fight. Submitted a 7-0 striker in her UFC debut and 4th pro fight. Submitted Gillian Robertson in her 5th pro fight.
  • Tools: Bueno Silva has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average grappling (60).
  • Yanan Wu
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 11-4
  • UFC Record: 1-3
  • Key Wins: Submitted Lauren Mueller.
  • Tools: Yanan has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).

I’m not buying in to this whole idea that Bueno Silva has big power. She throws power shots. But as far as getting the desired result, a KO, she only has 1 knockout in 10 pro fights. And that 1 KO was her opponent’s corner throwing in the towel. So she’s not a threat to knock anyone out. Yanan on the other hand, has 12 pro wins, 6 of them by KO, 5 by submission, 1 by decision. So she absolutely has more power, and more finishing ability. And that’s what this fight comes down to. Could Yanan knock Bueno Silva out? Because if she can’t, Bueno Silva has better grappling and will land more strikes. I think Bueno Silva is also moving up to 135 lbs for this fight. Not sure how that could effect her grappling, but it could. I think Bueno Silva should be the favorite at -175.

Chris’ Pick: Bueno Silva by decision.


Pat Sabatini vs TJ Laramie

  • Pat Sabatini
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 16-3
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jamall Emmers, a 12-4 wrestler and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Tucker Lutz and a 6-2 grappler.
  • Tools: Sabatini has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has plus grappling (70).
  • TJ Laramie
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 11-4
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by an 8-3 wrestler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Charles Jourdain when he was 19 years old. Also beat a 5-1 grappler and a 6-2 grappler.
  • Tools: Laramie has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).

Sabatini has had 3 fights in the UFC now and every one of his fights, he’s been able to take his opponent down almost at will. We haven’t seen much of a sample size, but when we have seen Sabatini strike, it’s a 60 grade for me. Pretty confident in that. His striking with Lutz, who has 60 striking, was close to equal. And when he fought Emmers, Emmers out struck him 8 to 1. Yes, Sabatini threw 9 strikes at Emmers and only landed 1. I have Laramie’s wrestling as a 60, but it’s not my most confident grade. I had the tool graded a 55 going into his Contender fight with Daniel Swain. Laramie closed a -400 favorite as there was a consensus that Laramie had the better striking. But instead, they grappled. It went back and forth. Swain almost caught Laramie in an armbar. Laramie escaped. And Swain wasn’t the same after that. Laramie pounded him on the ground the rest of the round. And after the bell, Swain seemed to have a rib injury and couldn’t continue. I had Swain with 55 grappling going into that fight. I think Laramie had the better wrestling, but had Swain not gotten hurt, what would’ve happened the rest of the fight? We’ll never know. What I do know is the odds are very high that Sabatini will be able to take his opponent down, per usual. I don’t see Laramie being a threat anywhere. I like Sabatini at anywhere near -325.

Chris’ Pick: Sabatini by 1st round submission.


Ange Loosa vs Mounir Lazzez

  • Ange Loosa
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 8-2
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Wins: Split decision loss to an 8-4 wrestler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Split decision win over a 3-0 wrestler.
  • Tools: Loosa has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Mounir Lazzez
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 striker. Beat Abdul Razak Alhassan.
  • Tools: Lazzez has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).

Lazzez is still a man of mystery. His UFC debut, he took on Alhassan, who hasn’t fought in 2 years going into that. Had legal issues. We’ve now seen that Alhassan was not himself his first couple fights after the hiatus but has since bounced back. So hard to say what Lazzez’s tools are coming off that fight. For his Sophomore effort, Lazzez fought Warlley Alves. We saw Alves get the better of the grappling but the fight was over in less than 3 minutes with Alves landing perfect body kicks to the liver. Shut Lazzez down. That happens sometimes. With Loosa, he drew a tough assignment on The Contender against Jack Della Maddalena. There was some thought that Loosa’s striking could be a 60. But Della Maddalena out struck him by a 2 to 1 clip. And it’s already rare for prospects to come into the UFC with a 65 grade tool. So to say Della Maddalena’s striking is a 70, the odds of that are pretty slim. So I’m pretty confident in his striking being a 55. Based on my grades Lazzez’s striking should be better and the fact that Loosa is taking this fight on a week’s notice makes me more confident to bet Lazzez. I think Lazzez at -225 is fair.

Chris’ Pick: Lazzez by decision.


Devin Clark vs William Knight

  • Devin Clark
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 6-6
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Alex Nicholson in 2016.
  • Key Wins: Beat Alonzo Menifield and Mike Rodriguez.
  • Tools: Clark has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
  • William Knight
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-0 striker.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Fabio Cherant and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Alonzo Menifield and Aleksa Camur.
  • Tools: Knight has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).

I really thought Knight’s striking had elevated to a 65 after his win over Alonzo Menifield. But then he takes on Maxim Grishin and Grishin completely out classes him on the feet. Grishin out struck Knight 62 to 16. Wow. I had Grishin with 65 striking going in. Maybe it’s a 70. But without a doubt, I have to downgrade Knight’s striking to a 60 grade. However, I do have to give him some credit, his wrestling looked better. And that’s important taking on someone like Clark. I think because of these improvements, Knight will be able to keep the fight on the feet. So really this fight comes down to Clark’s durability. Can he survive the 1st round? And Knight’s cardio, what happens if he doesn’t get the KO in the 1st round? Does Clark take over after that? It’s close to a coin flip, but I think Knight getting the knockout is slightly more likely to happen. I’d price Knight at -135.

Chris’ Pick: Knight by 1st round knockout.


Pannie Kianzad vs Lina Lansberg

  • Pannie Kianzad
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 4-3
  • Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-5 striker.
  • Key Wins: Beat Alexis Davis, Sijara Eubanks, Bethe Correia, and Jessica-Rose Clark.
  • Tools: Kianzad has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • Lina Lansberg
  • Age: 40
  • UFC Record: 4-3 at 135 lbs. 4-4 overall.
  • Key Wins: Beat Macy Chiasson and Tonya Evinger.
  • Tools: Lansberg has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average wrestling (60).

Despite Lansberg being 40 years old, she can still fight. Her loss to Sara McMann was lopsided, but before that, picked up a win over Macy Chiasson. I did have to downgrade Lansberg’s power to a 50 though. The reality is that she has 4 UFC wins and none of them are KOs. The last time she knocked someone out was 2016. I’m harping on her power because her knocking Kianzad out is really her only path to win here. Kianzad has a loss on her record to Raquel Pennington in her last fight, but the judges really could’ve gone either way. Wrestling and clinch game was close to equal. Striking was close to equal. Kianzad is 10 years younger too. I’d have Kianzad at -275.

Chris’ Pick: Kianzad by decision.


Drakkar Klose vs Brandon Jenkins

  • Drakkar Klose
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Wins: Beat Bobby Green. Split decision over Marc Diakiese.
  • Tools: Klose has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
  • Brandon Jenkins
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 14-7
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to an 8-6 wrestler.
  • Key Wins: Beat a 9-2 grappler and a well rounded 6-2-1 fighter.
  • Tools: Jenkins has average striking (50) and fringe average wrestling (45).

Giant mismatch here. Jenkins fought against Zhu Rong in his UFC debut. And lost because Zhu kept taking him down and was able to control him on the ground. I have Zhu with 55 wrestling. So what do you think happens here with Klose who I’ve graded with 65 wrestling. And let’s not forget that Klose’s Beneil Dariush fight has aged well. And it’s not like it was a surprise that Klose almost knocked Dariush out. The line closed with Dariush as a -170 favorite. I think Klose would be justified to be as high as -600.

Chris’ Pick: Klose by 1st round ground and pound TKO.


Rafa Garcia vs Jesse Ronson

  • Rafa Garcia
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 12-2
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat a 10-3 striker. Beat Natan Levy. Majority decision win over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
  • Tools: Garcia has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Jesse Ronson
  • Age: 36
  • Pro Record: 21-10
  • UFC Record: 0-3 at 155 lbs.
  • Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 striker.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 wrestler and a well rounded 12-3 fighter. Split decision win over a 6-2 grappler.
  • Tools: Ronson has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

I ask myself, am I really grading Ronson’s striking a 60, and the answer is yes. Despite his UFC return with Nicolas Dalby being turned into a no contest, he did out land Dalby 21 to 17 in distance significant strikes. And I’m very confident Dalby’s striking is a 60. Garcia showed in his last fight with Natan Levy, he doesn’t mind going for take downs frequently and often. Even if his opponent keeps getting up and the fight is a tad boring. I could see Garcia trying to do that here. But Ronson has more power than Levy did, with better striking. I think Ronson will eventually catch Garcia, but I don’t plan on betting him. I’d price Ronson at -150.

Chris’ Pick: Ronson by 2nd round knockout.


Chris Barnett vs Martin Buday

  • Chris Barnett
  • Age: 35
  • Pro Record: 22-7
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-3 striker. Lost to a 14-8 striker. Split decision loss to an 8-4 wrestler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 22-5 fighter.
  • Tools: Barnett has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
  • Martin Buday
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 9-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker.
  • Tools: Buday has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).

Total coin flip fight. Barnett’s striking with Gian Villante was almost identical before knocking him out. Pretty sure Buday has 55 striking although we didn’t see much of it when he fought on The Contender. It’s possible Buday’s wrestling could be a 55. But Barnett’s confidence has to be high right now and I would price him at -125.

Chris’ Pick: Barnett by 2nd round knockout.


Jordan Leavitt vs Trey Ogden

  • Jordan Leavitt
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 8-1
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Matt Sayles and a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
  • Tools: Leavitt has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average grappling (60).
  • Trey Ogden
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 15-4
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-2 fighter and an 8-2 grappler. Beat a 4-0 wrestler.
  • Tools: Ogden has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average grappling (60).

There’s a lot of prospects that make their way into the UFC. A 15-4 pro record isn’t the shiniest, but Ogden is one of the better prospects to make his debut. I saw his record. Ho hum. Looked up who he beat. Okay, he has a few decent wins. But then I watched his last fight against a 8-2 grappler. And wow. I had the grappler with 50 striking, 40 power, 50 grappling. Ogden dominated. Easily won the fight on the feet. Took his opponent down with ease. Ogden has 15 pro wins and 11 submissions. His grappling might even be a 65, I was that impressed. But Leavitt has been impressive too. I also have his grappling graded a 60, but just like Ogden, it could be a 65. But unlike Ogden, I’m confident in saying Leavitt’s striking is a 50. Ogden’s I know is at least a 55 and could even be a 60. And Ogden trains at Glory MMA with James Krause. It’ll be interesting where the line opens, but I think Ogden should be priced as a -175 favorite.

Chris’ Pick: Ogden by decision.


Sam Hughes vs Istela Nunes

  • Sam Hughes
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 5-4
  • UFC Record: 0-3
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
  • Tools: Hughes has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Istela Nunes
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 6-2
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 striker.
  • Tools: Nunes has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Despite the loss, I was really impressed with Nunes in her UFC debut. She took on Ariane Carnelossi. Got taken down repeatedly, got back up repeatedly. But I have Carnelossi as a 60 striker and Nunes out struck her by a decent margin. Enough for me to grade her striking a 65. Which is rare. Very rare a fighter walks into the UFC with a 65 tool. I feel bad for Hughes. She’s 0-3 in the UFC. But she’s drawn some really tough opponents. Tecia Torres. Loma Lookboonmee. Then her last fight with Luana Pinheiro, Pinheiro was over a 4 to 1 favorite. But Hughes made it a close fight. Hughes lost, but not by much. She draws yet another tough assignment in Nunes. I think Hughes has potential, but Nunes has margin to win here because of her striking. I would have Nunes at -350.

Chris’ Pick: Nunes by decision.


Heili Alateng vs Kevin Croom

  • Heili Alateng
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 14-8-2
  • UFC Record: 2-1-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Gustavo Lopez to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 striker. Beat Danaa Batgerel. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
  • Tools: Heili has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
  • Kevin Croom
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 20-14
  • UFC Record: 0-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 16-8 wrestler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler, a well rounded 9-1 fighter, and a 9-3 striker. Submitted a 7-2 grappler. Split decision over a 5-2 striker.
  • Tools: Croom has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).

Croom is set to make his UFC bantamweight debut here. If he can make that weight, he’s going to be huge and have a big reach at that weight. I give Glory MMA and James Krause a ton of credit because Croom used to be a one dimensional submission specialist. But now he can strike, and the striking tool has almost surpassed his grappling tool. And some say that Heili’s win over rising contender Batgerel has “aged well”, but I don’t think Batgerel was the same guy he is now. Also, Heili’s last 2 fights against Casey Kenney and Lopez do a better job of showing where his skills are at. Could be a close fight. But it’s possible Croom’s striking could be a 65 because he actually out struck Brian Kelleher. And it’s possible Heili’s striking could be more of a 55. Because of that, I give Croom a slight advantage and I’d price him at -135.

Chris’ Pick: Croom by decision.

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