Chris Duncan vs Charlie Campbell
- Chris Duncan
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a 14-5 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Charlie Campbell
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 striker and a well rounded 3-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Really impressed by what I saw from Campbell. Fighting out of the Serra Longo camp. He took on a 5-2 striker where all 5 of his wins came by KO. And the opponent also missed weight by 7 lbs. But that didn’t matter to Campbell who was able to mix in some take downs to go with superior striking on the feet. Only took him 3 minutes to get the knockout. With Duncan, we saw him on The Contender against Slava Borshchev. We know Borshchev has 60 striking and 50 wrestling. Duncan got a couple take downs, but Borshchev did out land him on the feet, up until Borshchev got the KO. So I have Duncan with well rounded 55 tools. But I see the same thing happening to Duncan, getting beat by a better striker.
Chris’ Pick: Campbell by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Campbell -225
Shannon Ross vs Vinicius Salvador
- Shannon Ross
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 12-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Ashkan Mokhtarian.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 grappler. Beat a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Vinicius Salvador
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 13-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a well rounded 9-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Not much video on Salvador past 2018, which is odd, because there’s a lot more smaller shows filmed nowadays than before. But I watched Salvador fight Rafael Costa, a well rounded 8-1 fighter. And I expect Costa to make it to the UFC as well. High level fight between the two. Fight was really close, back and forth, but Costa caught Salvador in an arm triangle in the 2nd round. Ross didn’t really impress me. One of his last fights was against a 4-1 grappler who I thought had 55 grappling. Striking on the feet was close to equal. But Ross kept getting taken down and the grappler eventually caught him in a rear naked choke in the 1st round. I see Salvador having the same level of wrestling as the grappler Ross faced. But the big problem for Ross will be how much faster Salvador is on the feet. And get this, 12 of Salvador’s 13 wins are by KO and he’s a flyweight. That’s rare and big power for the weight class.
Chris’ Pick: Salvador by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Salvador -275
Francis Marshall vs Connor Matthews
- Francis Marshall
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Connor Matthews
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Matthews is an unknown to me. 4 of his 5 wins, he’s finished in less than 1 minute. Longest fight he’s ever been in in his pro career went 2 minutes 21 seconds and that was against a fighter with a 15-97 record. All of Matthews wins are over cans though. So there’s not much data on him. My eyes see 55 grappling, at least. But it’s easy to look great when you’re taking on bad fighters. I watched Marshall take on a fighter with a 24-30 record. I thought the journeyman had 40 striking and wrestling. And Marshall did okay. He was out striking his opponent, but getting hit a lot. He’d get lots of take downs but his opponent kept getting up. I think Matthews’ grappling is slightly better, should have slightly more power, but it’s not my most confident pick.
Chris’ Pick: Matthews by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Matthews -150
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Danilo Suzart
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Danilo Suzart
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to a 6-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Majority decision over a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Suzart took on a legit prospect in his last fight, a 4-0 grappler, where all 4 of his wins have come by submission. And he went hard for the take downs. I thought 55 grappling. And even though Suzart was taken down a few times, he was able to get back up and out strike the grappler on the feet. Probably 55 striking and power for Suzart. Cortes-Acosta’s last fight with 5-0 Thomas Petersen looked like a UFC quality fight. I’m very confident we’ll eventually see Petersen in the UFC. Petersen has 60 wrestling. Took Cortes-Acosta down a few times, but he always worked to get back up. Striking was high level, close to equal. But Cortes-Acosta’s cardio really stood out, which is a big deal at heavyweight, because not everybody at heavyweight has that. I actually think Petersen was a tougher opponent than Suzart and I expect Cortes-Acosta to have better striking and take over in the second half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Cortes-Acosta by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Cortes-Acosta -200
Shimon Smotritsky vs Billy Goff
- Shimon Smotritsky
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 grappler. Beat a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Billy Goff
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 grappler and a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I watched Goff take on a 7-2 grappler. He did okay. Goff got rocked in the stand up. Grappler jumped a guillotine but Goff was able to shake it off. Goff did decent in the stand up, 55 grade for me, but his wrestling and ability to stuff the take downs was better than I thought it would be, enough for me to grade his wrestling a 55. Smotritsky took on UFC vet William Macario in his last fight, who had an 11-5 record at the time. Smotritsky showed improved strength and wrestling. Was able to take Macario down and got the ground and pound TKO in the 2nd round. And I upgraded his wrestling to a 60. I want to say he’s improved since we last saw him on The Contender, but the reality is that Contender fight with Mike Malott only lasted 39 seconds and we now know how good Malott is. Could be a close fight. I’m going with Smotritsky because his wrestling should be better and his striking is more likely to be a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Smotritsky by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Smotritsky -135