Calvin Kattar vs Arnold Allen
- Calvin Kattar
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Josh Emmett.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jeremy Stephens, Shane Burgos, Chris Fighgold, and Ricardo Lamas. Beat Giga Chikadze and Dan Ige.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Arnold Allen
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 9-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dan Hooker. Beat Sodiq Yusuff, Nik Lentz, and Gilbert Melendez. Split decision over Makwan Amirkhani.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I don’t put too much stock in Allen’s knockout over Hooker. Hooker was cutting down to 145 lbs on somewhat short notice and his chin clearly isn’t able to absorb much damage. I mean, it’s possible Allen could be unlocking some new power, but he has 9 wins in the UFC and this is his first UFC KO. I think Allen’s close win over Yusuff does a better job at showing where his skills are at. I thought Kattar having 75 striking was a done deal. I discovered Chikadze had 75 striking after all. Kattar’s striking with him was close to equal, but then comes the fight with Emmett. And it’s an interesting fight where striking in first 2 rounds is close to equal. Emmett lands more in the 3rd. Kattar out strikes Emmett by a 2 to 1 clip in the 4th. And Kattar lands more shots in the 5th. So has Emmett’s striking really leveled up to a 75? I doubt it, although it’s possible. I’m going to leave Kattar’s striking a 75 for now, but it’s a shaky grade. But luckily for Kattar, that won’t matter with Allen. He has margin. Even if his striking is just a 70, that should still be enough to beat Allen.
Chris’ Pick: Kattar by 3rd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Kattar -350
Tim Means vs Max Griffin
- Tim Means
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 12-8 at 170 lbs.
- Key Wins: Beat Nicholas Dalby, Mike Perry, and Laureano Staropoli.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Max Griffin
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-8
- Key Losses: Lost to Curtis Millender. Lost split decisions to Neil Magny, Alex Oliveira, and Thiago Alves.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat Mike Perry.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Means got his shot against a higher level of competition in Kevin Holland and the fight played out as expected. Holland out struck Means by a 2 to 1 clip in the 1st round and then knocked Means out early in the 2nd round. Means did do a little better in the 2nd round as Holland out landed him 9 to 7 before the KO, so maybe Means’ striking is up to a 65, but I doubt it. Not too many Glover Teixeira type breakouts. Means wrestling also proved to be a 60 as he got a couple take downs on 60-65ish grappler Holland but Holland was able to quickly bounce back up. And has Griffin really leveled up? It appears to be, yes. Despite the close loss to Neil Magny, I think Griffin is coming off the performance of his career. Almost knocked Magny out in the 1st round and out struck by almost a 2 to 1 clip. Striking the rest of the fight was close to equal. I’m pretty sure Magny’s striking is still a 65 based on how he did against Geoff Neal not too long ago. Good matchup between two late blooming, surging vets, but I see Griffin as the better striker.
Chris’ Pick: Griffin by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Griffin -200
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Jared Vanderaa
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker and a 9-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Jared Vanderaa
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-5
- Key Losses: Lost to a 4-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a 3-0 fighter. Beat Justin Tafa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chase Sherman finally lived up to his potential by knocking out Vanderaa. The one problem I have though in grading Vanderaa is depsite his losing streak, I’ve been convinced he’s had 65 striking. Before the Sherman fight, he got submitted by Alexei Oleinik, which is fine, it’s because Vanderaa has 55 wrestling. But before that, Vanderaa had a close fight with 65 striker Andrei Arlovski and the striking was close to equal. So it’s possible Sherman’s striking leveled up to a 70, but I doubt it. The most likely thing that happened is that Vanderaa is losing confidence and his striking might have regressed to a 60. Vanderaa is only 30 years old, which is young for a heavyweight. I’m going to leave his striking a 65 for now, but it’s possible I’m over rating him. Cortes-Acosta came into his Contender fight as a big -435 favorite. A bit more expensive than he should be in my opinion. And the fight went about how I thought it would. Cortes-Acosta out landed 55 striker Danilo Suzart 23 to 12 before knocking him out in the 1st. So Cortes-Acosta won, but it wasn’t a complete blow out either. Maybe in another weight class, I would pick someone like Vanderaa to win, but the reality at heavyweight is that we get a lot more KOs and a fighter having more power is a big deal. I think Vanderaa will land a few more shots, but Vanderaa has lost 5 out of his last 6 fights and 3 of those 5 losses have been by KO. Not good for Vanderaa.
Chris’ Pick: Cortes-Acosta by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Cortes-Acosta -150
Tresean Gore vs Josh Fremd
- Tresean Gore
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 3-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Josh Fremd
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Submitted a 5-1 wrestler. Split decision over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Turns out Anthony Hernandez got better. I know that Marc Andre Barriault has well rounded 60 tools. And we also have the advantage in knowing that Hernandez showed 65 grappling against Barriault and had the cardio to use it almost all fight. Going back to Fremd, he made his UFC debut on 10 days notice and was able to go back and forth on the grappling for the first two rounds, but then finally ran out of gas in the 3rd round. It’s possible his grappling is a 65, but I’m being conservative and leaving it at a 60 for now. Hernandez also has 60 striking and the exchanges with Fremd were close to equal. I thought the market was too high on Gore and I turned out to be right. He closed as a -150 favorite over Cody Brundage. But Brundage showed off 60 wrestling. And he also out landed Gore 12 to 8. It’s possible Gore could have 55 striking, especially considering how good Bryan Battle has looked, but I’m leaving Gore’s striking tool a 50 for the time being. But even if it is a 55, it won’t be enough to beat Fremd on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Fremd by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Fremd -350
Dustin Jacoby vs Khalil Rountree
- Dustin Jacoby
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-0-1 at 205 lbs.
- Key Draws: Fought Ion Cutelaba to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Da Un Jung, Darren Stewart, Justin Ledet, a 10-3 grappler and a 7-0 grappler. Beat Michel Oleksiejczuk, Maxim Grishin, and a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Khalil Rountree
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Losses: Submitted by Tyson Pedro.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Karl Roberson, Modestas Bukauskas, Paul Craig, and Gokhan Saki. Beat Eryk Anders.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Rountree’s last fight with Roberson went as expected. Striking was close to equal in the 1st round, but the problem for Roberson is Rountree just has way more power. Knocked him out in the 2nd round. And the only surprise about Jacoby vs Jung is that it’s really looking like Jacoby is unlocking more power in his hands. Strikes were close to equal, but I’m upgrading Jacoby’s power to a 65. Total coin flip fight. I believe more in Rountree’s power, but I also think Jacoby has the ability to take Rountree down if he wants if the fight is close. But Rountree has such huge power, him getting the KO is the most likely outcome
Chris’ Pick: Rountree by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rountree -125
Phil Hawes vs Roman Dolidze
- Phil Hawes
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Deron Winn, a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat Kyle Daukaus. Majority decision over Nassourdine Imavov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Roman Dolidze
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kyle Daukaus, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a 13-3 wrestler. Beat Laureano Staropoli. Split decision over John Allan.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I almost never take too much from quick KO’s because you need more time than just a couple minutes in a fight to really evaluate what the skill level of the fighters is at. So with Dolidze, yes, the KO over Kyle Daukaus was great, but Daukaus landed 4 shots to 0. Dolidze got Daukaus in the clinch, and landed a big high knee for the knockout. I’m going to keep Dolidze’s grades the same for now. Hawes vs Winn was the total wipeout I was expecting. Hawes showed his 65 striking is legit by out landing 50 striker Winn by a 3 to 1 clip. Didn’t learn anything new in that fight. I don’t really see a pathway for Dolidze to win here. Even if he improves his grappling to a 65, he won’t be able to get Hawes down. And no question, Hawes is a couple tiers better in the stand up.
Chris’ Pick: Hawes by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Hawes -400
Andrei Arlovski vs Marcos Rodrigo de Lima
- Andrei Arlovski
- Age: 43
- UFC Record: 12-10 in his 2nd stint.
- Key Losses: Lost to Tai Tuivasa. Split decision loss to Augusto Sakai.
- Key Wins: Beat Carlos Felipe, Tanner Boser, Chase Sherman, and Ben Rothwell. Split decision wins over Jake Collier and Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 4-3 at heavyweight. 8-6 in the UFC overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Stefan Struve.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ben Rothwell. Beat Maurice Greene and Adam Wieczorek.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
It’s well established that Arlovski has 65 striking. His last fight with 65 striker Collier was no different with shots landed being close to equal and Arlovski squeaking out a split decision win. But Arlovski’s wrestling hasn’t been tested in awhile. Turns out it’s still a 55 as 60 wrestler Collier was able to take him down a couple times. And it turns out Rogerio de Lima does have that 70 grade striking after all. I wasn’t sure because ever since he moved up to heavyweight, we haven’t seen much of him on the feet for one reason or another. But the Ivanov fight, it went all 3 rounds because both guys are really durable. I know Ivanov has 70 striking and shots landed between him and Rogerio de Lima were close to equal. I really like this fight for Rogerio de Lima. He’s got a monster power advantage on the feet and he could also take Arlovski down.
Chris’ Pick: Rodrigo de Lima by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rogerio de Lima -450
Jun Yong Park vs Joseph Holmes
- Jun Yong Park
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision against a 5-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Beat Marc-Andre Barriault and a 18-6 striker. Majority decision over Tafon Nchukwi. Split decision over Eryk Anders.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Joseph Holmes
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Submitted Alen Amedovski and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Not too much to take out of Holmes’ win over Amedovski as it happened in about a minute. I still have Holmes’ loss to Jamie Pickett fresh in my mind so I’m going to leave his grades where they’re at. And turns out I was really under rating Park’s striking. I had the tool graded as a 55 going into his last fight with Anders. The market disagreed with me and the market was right, although the fight was really close due to Anders getting the better of the wrestling. I still like Holmes as a prospect, but I think Park is too much, too soon for him. Park seems to be on his way to possibly becoming a contender and I don’t really see any way Holmes wins here.
Chris’ Pick: Park by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Park -275
Chase Hooper vs Steve Garcia
- Chase Hooper
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Draws: Fought a 7-8 striker to a draw.
- Key Losses: Lost to Alex Caceres.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Felipe Colares and Daniel Teymur. Beat a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Steve Garcia
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Aalon Cruz. Split decision loss to a 5-0 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 grappler. Split decision over a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Can’t really take much away from Garcia’s last fight, getting knocked out in a minute by Maheshate Hayisaer. But there was a lot to take out of Hooper’s last fight, really had a breakout. At the time, I had Colares with 50 striking and 55 grappling. But the market closed with Colares as a -190 favorite. So it’s possible, if not likely that Colares’ striking is really a 55 and his grappling a 60. Either way, Hooper had the performance of his career and there were a few things that stuck out to me. He seemed to be stronger. Made big improvements in his cardio. His pressure and the fact that he kept it up all fight long is what makes his grappling tool elevate to a 65 for me. And he has so much confidence with his grappling, he has no problem giving up positions to go for submissions, because he knows he can get the position back. The UFC is definitely being less aggressive in how they’re matching Hooper up. They want him to succeed. Garcia is similar to Colares, but actually a tier down. Hooper is a lot better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Hooper by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Hooper -450
Cody Durden vs Carlos Mota
- Cody Durden
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 2-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out JP Buys and a 6-2 grappler. Submitted a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Qileng Aori.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Carlos Mota
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-3 striker and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Durden’s KO over Buys looked spectacular, took about a minute, but he only out landed Buys 8 to 5. Too small a sample to make any changes to his tools, but it’s possible his striking has elevated to a 65. Now, let’s look at Muhammad Mokaev. He’s really good. Some say he’s a future champ at 125 lbs. Who gave him his toughest fight? Charles Johnson. They grappled all fight with Mokaev getting the better of it. Slightly. Anyway. A lot of people consider Mota as one of the top flyweight prospects in the world. His only loss? To Johnson. But if you watch the fight, it’s very close with Mota hanging in there the whole time. Striking and wrestling close to equal. Johnson ends up getting the KO in the 5th round but that has more to do with him having better cardio in a 5 round fight. What I’m saying is Mota is really good. I have him graded with well rounded 60 tools. But it’s possible I’m under rating him and they could be 65 tools. This is a really good fight. Using MMA math, you could look at how Mokaev steamrolled Durden and say that Mota is more likely to win. The MMA math could be right. But despite taking the fight on a week’s notice, I’m picking Mota because projection wise, it’s more likely he has 65 tools.
Chris’ Pick: Mota by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Mota -125
Christian Rodriguez vs Josh Weems
- Christian Rodriguez
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 5-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Joshua Weems
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 striker. Split decision over a 3-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Loss aside, Rodriguez was supremely impressive in a short notice fight against Jonathan Pearce. And I wasn’t the only one under rating Rodriguez as Pearce came in as a -350 favorite. For starters, Rodriguez was fighting up a weight class at 145 lbs. Here he returns to 135 lbs. Pearce would win the fight repeatedly taking Rodriguez down, but I saw enough for me to grade Rodriguez’s grappling a 60. But Rodriguez’s stand up was the most impressive. Pearce has 60 striking, is the bigger guy, and yet Rodriguez out struck him 23 to 10. There’s an argument that could be made that Rodriguez’s striking could be as high as a 70 grade, but I’ll keep it as a 65 for now. In hindsight, I was probably under rating Weems’ grappling when he went on the Contender against Fernie Garcia. Probably a 55 going into that fight. Garcia knocked him out, but in his last couple fights, Weems has gotten better. Weems’ last matchup was against Contender vet Mo Miller, who’s still a really good prospect. Weems proved to have better cardio and his skills matched Miller’s. Weems ended up getting a guillotine choke to get the submission but it was a close fight up to that point and Miller just ran out of gas. So yes, Weems has improved, but unfortunately for him, Rodriguez is a very good prospect who’s going to have a huge power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rodriguez -350