Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland
- Stephen Thompson
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 11-6-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Anthony Pettis. Majority decision loss to Tyron Woodley.
- Key Draws: Fought Tyron Woodley to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Jorge Masvidal, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-0 at 170 lbs. 11-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Tim Means. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I’m still not too sure where to grade Holland’s grappling. It’s definitely better at 170 lbs. Looking at his last fight, I can’t ignore how Khamzat Chimaev was able to overwhelm and quickly get a submission. Plus someone like Means who has 60-65ish wrestling get a couple take downs on Holland. So I’m going to grade Holland’s grappling a 60 for now, but it could be a 65. Thompson has been a 75 striker for some time. And his last fight against Belal Muhammad didn’t reveal anything new. Muhammad had 70 wrestling to take him down repeatedly and the cardio to do it for most of the fight. But I looked back on the fight before that with Gilbert Burns, who has 70 striking. And the striking in that fight was close to equal. So at this point in Thompson’s career I’m downgrading the striking tool to a 70 grade. Perfect fight for both, who have been frustrated by wrestlers lately. Should be a kickboxing match. And Holland’s power is going to make the difference here.
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Holland -150
Rafael dos Anjos vs Bryan Barberena
- Rafael dos Anjos
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 4-4 at 170 lbs. 20-12 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Ben Henderson. Beat Renato Moicano, Paul Felder, Nate Diaz, and Anthony Pettis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Bryan Barberena
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-6
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Jason Witt.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Robbie Lawler. Beat Darian Weeks and Warlley Alves. Split decision over Matt Brown.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Despite being 38 years old, dos Anjos can still compete. But he’s just not as effective at 170 lbs as he is at 155 lbs. He’s just smaller at welterweight and his wrestling isn’t as effective. His last welterweight fight was against Michael Chiesa and dos Anjos got out classed. Was taken down repeatedly. 15 minute fight and Chiesa had over 10 minutes of control time with his 70-75ish grappling. Striking with Chiesa was close to equal. Yes, Barberena looked great knocking out Robbie Lawler. Signature win of his career. And look at the numbers. Barberena out struck Lawler 138 to 78. Wipeout. But what do we make of this? Was that fight more about how Barberena has gotten even better or that Lawler’s skills have fallen off a cliff? Maybe a little of both. Let’s not forget Barberena’s last fight before Lawler was Matt Brown and Barberena squeaked out a split decision win. And just last year, four fights ago, Barberena’s last loss was a majority decision loss to Jason Witt, who’s been cut from the UFC. Barberena is 33 years old. 15 UFC fights. Not too many guys with that many UFC fights still have runway developmentally. I can’t grade Barberena’s striking any higher than a 65. Me grading Barberena’s wrestling a 60 uses a bit of projection, I could be wrong, it could still be a 55. I think Barberena has a chance here. He has more momentum. His striking could be a 70. Could be a close fight. Dos Anjos will have to mix in some take downs to win here.
Chris’ Pick: dos Anjos by decision.
What I think the odds should be: dos Anjos -125
Matheus Nicolau vs Matt Schnell
- Matheus Nicolau
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 17-2 striker. Submitted a 4-0 grappler. Beat David Dvorak, Tim Elliott, Louis Smolka, and a 7-1 grappler. Split decisions over Manel Kape and John Moraga.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Matt Schnell
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-5 at 125 lbs.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Hector Sandoval.
- Key Wins: Submitted Su Mudaerji, Louis Smolka, and Jordan Espinosa. Split decision win over Tyson Nam.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Market thought Nicoalu vs Dvorak would be close. I disagreed, thinking Dvorak’s tools were closer to a 60. But it turned out I was wrong and the fight was super close. Strikes landed was 33 to 33. Doesn’t get closer to that. And the wrestling canceled itself out too. But again, it’s not because Nicolau isn’t as good as I thought he is. So I’m keeping him graded the same. Schnell is coming off one of the more remarkable comebacks in recent memory. Striking with now confirmed 70 striker Sumudaerji was close to equal, but Sumudaerji has a lot more power and was lighting up Schnell. Had him wobbled. But Sumudaerji gassed out trying to finish him. Which enabled Schnell to take Sumudaerji and get the triangle choke submission. I figure Schnell will be an underdog here because the market will remember Schnell almost getting knocked out. But despite the 60 power, Schnell does have legit 70 striking. So as long as Nicolau doesn’t KO him, Schnell should land more shots.
Chris’ Pick: Schnell by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Schnell -135
Tai Tuivasa vs Sergei Pavlovich
- Tai Tuivasa
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Serghei Spivac.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai, Greg Hardy, and Cyril Asker. Beat Andrei Arlovski.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Sergei Pavlovich
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Derrick Lewis, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Maurice Greene.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Not much to take away from Pavlovich’s fight with Lewis, being only 55 seconds and all, except that despite the misdirection from Pavlovich’s fight with Abdurakhimov, Pavlovich does indeed have 70 striking. Within that 55 seconds Pavlovich out landed Lewis 14 to 4. And not much to learn from Tuivasa’s fight with Ciryl Gane either. Except that Gane looks like he’s on track to go down as the greatest heavyweight of all time in the UFC. The numbers he put up against Tuivasa are just bonkers. If you watched the fight, it looked close. Gane got clipped, almost knocked out. But Gane out struck Tuivasa 108 to 26. Total landslide. But I still have confidence Tuivasa’s tools are where I graded them. Total coin flip fight. I have more confidence that Tuivasa’s striking is a 70 than Pavlovich. And I think Tuivasa is more durable, which is a big deal at heavyweight.
Chris’ Pick: Tuivasa by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Tuivasa -135
Roman Dolidze vs Jack Hermansson
- Roman Dolidze
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Phil Hawes, Kyle Daukaus, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a 13-3 wrestler. Beat Laureano Staropoli. Split decision over John Allan.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jack Hermansson
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Strickland.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thales Leites. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum, David Branch, and Gerald Meerschaert. Beat Chris Curtis, Edmen Shahbazyan and Jacare Souza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Hermansson did exactly what I thought he’d do to Curtis. Showed there was a big difference in the stand up. Out struck Curtis 99 to 41. Hermansson reaffirmed his tools. Brunson pulls out, in steps Dolidze on less than 2 weeks notice. He’s technically coming off a KO win over Hawes, but that had everything to do with Hawes blowing out his knee and fighting on one leg. Before the injury happened, Hawes was able to take Dolidze down and control him for a bit with his 65 wrestling. It did look like Dolidze’s striking was better so I’m upgrading it to a 60. Big opportunity for Dolidze here to take on a top 5 guy, but I don’t see any path for him to win. Hermansson’s wrestling is even better than Hawes’ and I see him getting back to his biggest strength, his top game and ground and pound.
Chris’ Pick: Hermansson by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Hermansson -450
Kyle Daukaus vs Eryk Anders
- Kyle Daukaus
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Jamie Pickett and a 12-2 grappler. Beat Dustin Stoltzfus and an 8-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Eryk Anders
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-6 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Jun Yong Park, Lyoto Machida, and Elias Theodorou.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rafael Natal. Beat Darren Stewart and Markus Perez. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Anders is better at 185 lbs than 205 lbs, but he’s now 6-6 in the UFC at middleweight. He’s 35 years old. I think he’s hit his ceiling, developmentally. 65 striker Jun Yong Park landed more shots. But Anders still has 65 wrestling. Daukaus’ shocking KO loss to Roman Dolidze isn’t looking too bad these days after Dolideze also upset Phil Hawes. Daukaus’ tools remain intact. On paper, it looks like a close fight. But Daukaus has a ways to go before hitting his ceiling and I expect his striking will be better and he’ll land more.
Chris’ Pick: Daukaus by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Daukaus -135
Niko Price vs Phil Rowe
- Niko Price
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Jouban, Randy Brown, and Tim Means.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Philip Rowe
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jason Witt, Orion Cosce, and a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Rowe’s striking could be a 65, but there hasn’t been a lot of data on Rowe’s stand up because he knocks guys out quick. But I have it graded a 60 for now because his striking with 60 striker Witt was close to equal. I’m not entirely sure what to grade Price’s striking. I thought he had elevated the tool to a 65 with how the striking against Michel Pereira was close to equal. But it looks like that might have been due to Pereira gassing out in the second half of the fight. Price’s last fight against 60 striker Alex Oliveira, striking was close to equal there. So I think Price has 60 striking, but I’m not super confident. Both guys could have 65 striking. Coin flip fight. Fight could go either way, but I’m picking Rowe because Price doesn’t have the best chin, seen him be knocked out a few times.
Chris’ Pick: Rowe by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rowe -125
Angela Hill vs Emily Ducote
- Angela Hill
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 8-9
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Amanda Lemos, Michelle Waterson, and Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Loopy Godinez, Ashley Yoder, and Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Emily Ducote
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-6
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: split decision loss to Kanako Murata.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-3 wrestler and a 10-2 striker. Submitted a well round 6-1 fighter. Beat Jessica Penne.
- Striking: near plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I agreed with the market going into the Ducote vs Penne fight. Line closed with Ducote as a -160 favorite. Looked like she had an edge with having more power than Penne. But wow, she blew everyone away. Penne was 0 for 8 on take down attempts. But most impressively is that Ducote out struck Penne 115 to 55. Total wipeout. I know Penne has 60 striking from her match with Loopy Godinez. Therefore, I have no choice but to grade Ducote’s striking a 70. Hill has been a successful upper tier gatekeeper. This is a good test for Ducote. But based on what we saw her do to Penne, Ducote should win here. Not sure why Hill continues to get underestimated. Line closed with Godinez as a -330 favorite. I thought that was crazy and it’d be a close fight and sure enough it was. Striking was close to equal. Godinez got a take down and a little bit of control early. But wasn’t able to use her 70 wrestling as much as the fight went on, probably because both took the fight on a couple weeks notice. I’ve seen enough of Hill to know her wrestling is only a 65. She’s 37 years old. The odds of her improving that tool to a 70 are possible, but not likely. Based on what Ducote did to Penne, I do think she’ll be able to out strike Hill. But I’ve only seen Ducote once in the UFC and there is a possibility that Penne regressed big time in her last fight. And if Ducote’s striking is closer to a 65, this could be another close split decision.
Chris’ Pick: Ducote by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ducote -200
Clay Guida vs Scott Holtzman
- Clay Guida
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 17-15
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Bobby Green.
- Key Wins: Beat Michael Johnson. Split decision over Mark O. Madsen.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Scott Holtzman
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Nik Lentz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Patrick and Dong Hyun Ma. Beat Jim Miller.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Not much to learn from Guida’s last fight with Claudio Puelles. He made a tactical error taking Puelles down thinking he could use his wrestling to control him on the ground. Turns out Mateusz Gamrot is really good. Like title contender good. Which is relevant for Holtzman because even though he got knocked out by Gamrot, he didn’t do that bad. I think Gamrot arrived to the Arman Tsarukyan fight with improved 70 striking and 75 wrestling. But in the Holtzman fight, I think Gamrot had 65 striking and 70 wrestling. Gamrot was able to get a couple take downs but Holtzman got up, so it’s possible Holtzman’s wrestling could be as high as a 65. And I’m pretty confident Holtzman now has 60 striking. Guida still has some gas in the tank and has been better lately, but I see Holtzman with better striking, a lot more power. Way less miles on his body, more in his prime, despite his age.
Chris’ Pick: Holtzman by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Holtzman -250
Marc Diakiese vs Michael Johnson
- Marc Diakiese
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Drakkar Klose.
- Key Wins: Beat Damir Hadzovic, Viacheslav Borshchev,, Joseph Duffy, and Lando Vannata.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Michael Johnson
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 10-12 at 155 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jamie Mullarkey.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Patrick and Dustin Poirier. Beat Edson Barboza
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Diakiese has had one of the more memorable career turnarounds I’ve seen in awhile. Started his UFC career 3-0. Then lost 3 in a row. Won 2, then lost 2. But now has reinvented himself as a well rounded fighter. He took 55 wrestler Hadzovic down easily and controlled him for most of the fight. Johnson really turned back the clock and impressed me against Mullarkey. I thought Johnson’s career was done. Then he knocks out Patrick and has a close split decision loss to Mullarkey. The fact that Johnson was able to stuff 60 wrestler Mullarkey’s take down attempts makes me upgrade his wrestling tool to a 60. Really close fight here that I could see going either way. Diakiese might be able to get some take downs here but Johnson’s cardio held up all 3 rounds. He’ll be able to get back up and he could KO Diakiese. But Diakiese is more likely to win. Younger. Still developing. Johnson could regress. Diakiese should land more on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Diakiese by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Diakiese -175
Jonathan Pearce vs Darren Elkins
- Jonathan Pearce
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joe Lauzon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Makwan Amirkhani, Kai Kamaka III, and a 5-1 striker. Submitted Omar Morales. Beat Christian Rodriguez
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Darren Elkins
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 17-9
- Key Wins: Knocked out Darrick Minner and Mirsad Bektic. Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Chas Skelly and Godofredo Pepey. Split decision over Dennis Bermudez.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Elkins has been showing that he’s still got some miles left. After losing 4 in a row and being seemingly done, he’s now won 3 of his last 4 fights. And in his last matchup with Tristan Connelly, he fought a smarter fight. He took Connelly down repeatedly, had better cardio. Connelly would get back up most of the time, but Elkins was able to grind out a win. Striking was close to equal but I think it’s more likely due to Connelly having 55 striking as opposed to Elkins’ striking regressing to a 50. Pearce got a step up in competition with Amirkhani and really had a coming out party. He put on a frantic pace in the 1st round, mostly grappling, mostly even round. But by the 2nd round the pace and pressure was too much. Pearce got him down and he wasn’t able to get back up with Pearce swinging away with ground and pound. Grading Pearce’s striking a 65 might be too high. Shots landed against 60 striker Amirkhani was close to equal in the 1st round, but Pearce out struck him 13 to 5 in the 2nd round. I think if the fight kept going, the 3rd round would’ve been more of the same. Elkins is been given a step back up in competition, taking on a guy in Pearce who could be a potential contender. But Pearce is just going to be too much. Will be able to take Elkins down if he wants. Better everywhere. All Pearce has to be is not gas out going for the finish.
Chris’ Pick: Pearce by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Pearce -500
Natan Levy vs Genaro Valdez
- Natan Levy
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 grappler. Majority decision over a 5-3 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Genaro Valdez
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter and an 8-3 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Not completely sure where Levy’s skills are at. I had him with 55 striking and wrestling going into the Mike Breeden fight. Market agreed with me as Levy closed as a -210 favorite. What’s ironic is I thought Levy would land more against 50 striker Breeden, that that would be the path to victory. Instead, the striking was close to equal, but Levy did get some take downs and control. I’m tentatively upgrading his wrestling to a 60 and I think the striking is a 55, but I’m not super confident about it because we haven’t seen much of Breeden. But I think the grades are right based off of seeing him with Rafa Garcia. Not sure why the market had Matt Frevola as a -200 favorite over Valdez. Maybe they thought he’d have the better striking. I disagreed, thinking Valdez would have more power and should’ve been a -135 favorite. But it turns out that was the first fight where Frevola has shown more power in his hands. Fight only lasted 3 minutes. Wild brawl with shots landed being close to equal before Frevola got the KO. I still think Valdez has 55 striking. And Levy is a very similar opponent to Frevola. Except he should have 45 power and not be as big a threat on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Valdez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Valdez -135
Marcelo Rojo vs Francis Marshall
- Marcelo Rojo
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 16-8
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 striker. Knocked out an 8-1 striker and a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Francis Marshall
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker. Beat a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
There were a lot of unknowns with Marshall going into his Contender fight. Only had one quality win. I had him graded with 50 striking and grappling initially. Market disagreed with me and thought he had 55 tools. But he turned out to be even better than the market thought, being able to take Connor Matthews down, who I thought had 55 grappling. Striking in the 1st round was close to equal, but as the fight went longer, Matthews faded more and more. Last 2 rounds, Marshall did out strike Matthews and I have Marshall’s striking tool graded as a 55. Rojo will probably come into this fight as the underdog, but he’s very under rated, despite the below average pro record and 0-2 start to his UFC career. His last opponent Kyler Phillips has 65 striking and did land more shots, but it wasn’t a blow out either, 63 to 53. Not too shabby. Rojo also showed his wrestling has improved to a 60 with the way he was able to get back up when taken down. He almost escaped in the 3rd round before Phillips caught him in an arm bar. Up to that point, the fight was starting to get close. I really like Rojo here. He should be able to stuff most of Marshall’s take downs and he’s going to have way more power on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Rojo by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rojo -250
Yazmin Jauregui vs Istela Nunes
- Yazmin Jauregui
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Iasmin Lucindo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Istela Nunes
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 6-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Sam Hughes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Sam Hughes had her big breakout against Elise Reed. Clearly she got better. But the fight before that was Nunes and it’s hard to say whether the improved version of Hughes showed up in the Nunes fight or the Reed fight. Because we’ve only seen Nunes twice in the UFC so far. So I trust what we saw with Nunes in the Ariane Carnelossi matchup more. Nunes showed legit 65 striking. But Carnelossi was able to control her in the clinch for chunks of time throughout the fight. Nunes also started to fade in the second half of the fight which contributed towards Carnelossi taking her down and getting the submission in the 3rd round. Jauregui’s fight with Lucindo was very memorable. Very rare the UFC puts two debuting fighters, both skipping the Contender and TUF, getting signed right to the UFC and fighting each other in the third to last fight on the main card. And they delivered. I had both graded with 60 striking. Market closed with Jauregui as a -190 favorite because I think they viewed Jauregui as the better striker. I thought Lucindo would win. I’m confident she has 65 wrestling and would get take downs, but Jauregui shook them off easy. Striking turned out to be close to equal. So I’m pretty sure Jauregui has 65 wrestling, but less confident in the 65 striking grade. Either way, I expect Jauregui to mix in her wrestling to wear Nunes down and finish finish her late in the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Jauregui by 3rd round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Jauregui -250