
Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev
- Jan Blachowicz
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 12-6
- Key Knocked out Aleksandar Rakic, Dominick Reyes, Corey Anderson, Luke Rockhold, and Ilir Latifi. Submitted Nikita Krylov and Devin Clark. Beat Israel Adesanya, Jared Cannonier, and Jimi Manuwa. Split decision over Jacare Souza.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Magomed Ankalaev
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 9-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out Anthony Smith. Submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ion Cutelaba twice. Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula. Beat Thiago Santos, Nikita Krylov, and Klidson Abreu.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus wrestling (75)
Ankalaev’s striking is teetering very close to a 75 grade. He showed 75 striking against Oezdemir. His striking was only a 70 against Santos. With his last opponent Anthony Smith, Ankalaev landed more in the 1st round 19 to 12. 2nd round was a small sampe, 4 to 5 up until Smith hurt his leg and the fight was over soon after. I’m going to play it safe and have Ankalaev’s striking at a 70 for now, but it could very well be a 75. Even though the Blachowicz vs Rakic fight ended anti climatically, at least it provided me some closure on how good Blachowicz is. Especially coming off that weird submission loss to Glover Teixeira. Blachowicz out strikes Rakic 31 to 17 proving once and for all, the striking is a 75 tool. There’s an argument to be made he had 75 striking against Reyes. The Adesanya one, it’s hard to grade because we don’t know exactly how good Adesanya is at 205 lbs. And Blachowicz did out strike Teixeira 26 to 11. And another thing proven once and for all is Blachowicz’s wrestling is indeed a 65. Teixeira was able to get him down in the 1st round. But had a few take down attempts stuffed in the 2nd round. Blachowicz was hurt from strikes, that’s how Teixeira finished Blachowicz so quick in the 2nd round. He was out. And after sticking to striking exchanges in the 1st round, we found Rakic switching things up in the 2nd, taking Blachowicz down with his 75 wrestling and being able to control him most of the round. Now that that’s settled, we can see the path for Ankalaev to win here. Take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Ankalaev by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ankalaev -200
Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon
- Paddy Pimblett
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 19-3
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jordan Leavitt, Kazula Vargas, a 7-0 grappler, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a 10-2 grappler, and an 8-2 wrestler. Knocked out Luigi Vendramini and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Julian Erosa.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jared Gordon
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joaquim Silva.
- Key Wins: Beat Leonardo Santos, Danny Chavez, and Chris Fishgold. Split decision over Joe Solecki.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
When the line closed with Gordon as a -260 favorite over Santos, I just couldn’t understand it. Gordon was coming off a loss to Grant Dawson where Dawson was able to take him down and control him for most of the fight. I thought Santos had well rounded 65 tools. I think I was justified with how I felt going in. And in my opinion, Gordon got way, way better. He’s for sure better at lightweight than featherweight. Now, it’s possible Santos regressed to 60 tools. But Gordon out struck Santos 86 to 29. That’s a landslide. And it’s Gordon’s pace, cardio, and volume that make the tool a 70 now, albeit with 60 power. And I might be going against the narrative here, but there were a bunch of red flags in Pimblett’s submission win over Leavitt. If you look at the end result, oh Pimblett by 2nd round submission. Yeah we expected that. But that’s not the real story. The story is that Pimblett struggled and got a bit lucky. And I have nothing against Pimblett. The market closed with him as a -250 favorite. I thought Pimblett should’ve been a -450 favorite. I thought Pimblett had 65 tools. And thought Leavitt had 55 striking and 60 wrestling. But let’s say for sake of the argument I was wrong about Leavitt. Let’s say he has 60 striking and 65 wrestling. What happened in the fight? Leavitt won the vast majority of the 1st round. Out wrestled Pimblett. Took him down a couple times. Controlled him. But Leavitt got reversed at the end of the round and Pimblett landed some big shots in mount. 2nd round, small sample, but Leavitt out strikes Pimblett 7 to 3. Leavitt was also starting to get the better of the wrestling. But in the clinch, Pimblett landed a huge knee that hurt Leavitt bad, fell down. Pimblett took the back, got the choke. So I have no choice but to down grade Pimblett’s tools to 60s. And hey, give credit to the UFC. They might be tempted to give Pimblett easy matchups to help make him a star, but Gordon, especially with the momentum he has, is a very tough match up. I think there’s zero chance Pimblett is able to get Gordon to the ground. And I see Gordon making Pimblett strike all fight where he’s clearly the better striker. Gordon might even cruise here and make it look easy.
Chris’ Pick: Gordon by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Gordon -300
Alex Morono vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
- Alex Morono
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 11-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Keita Nakamura.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Zak Ottow. Beat Matthew Semelsberger, Mickey Gall, David Zawada, Kenan Song, and Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Santiago Ponzinibbio
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Michel Pereira and Geoff Neal.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny. Beat Miguel Baeza, Mike Perry, Nordine Taleb, and Zak Cummings.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Ponzinibbio has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, but the last two have been the split decision variety against Geoff Neal and Michel Pereira. Ponzinibbio very much reaffirmed his tools in the Pereira fight, striking was close to equal. The UFC is really throwing Ponzinibbio a bone here, to match him up with a fading Lawler. I expect this fight to go down even worse for Lawler than the Barberena fight did. Morono is a very successful fighter, but developmentally, he’s plateued a bit. Maybe hit a ceiling. The market slept on him a bit in the Semelsberger fight, but he did what I expected. But he’s taking this fight against Ponzinibbio on about a week’s notice. Has the cardio to go all 3 rounds. But the main problem he’s going to run into is Ponzinibbio has a lot more power. He hasn’t been winning as much lately since coming back from a lengthy hiatus, but that’s because welterweight is a shark tank with lots of really high level fighters.
Chris’ Pick: Ponzinibbio by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Ponzinibbio -300
Darren Till vs Dricus du Plessis
- Darren Till
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-4-1 overall. 1-2 at 185 lbs.
- Key Draw: Fought Nicolas Dalby to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone. Beat Stephen Thompson. Split decision over Kelvin Gastelum.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Dricus du Plessis
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 17-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Knocked out Trevin Giles, Markus Perez, a 13-2 striker, and a well rounded 30-7 fighter. Beat Brad Tavares.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Till hasn’t been very active. Since 2020, he’s only fought once a year. Probably to improve his wrestling. After his fight with Robert Whittaker, I thought Till had elevated his wrestling to a 65. But his last opponent Derek Brunson tested him more than Whittaker did. Repeatedly took Till down and was able to control him for most of the fight. And I’ve also thought there was a possibility that Till’s striking was a 75, but after looking back at the numbers of his last two fights, that’s not the case. It’s possible he shows up improved as he hasn’t fought since September 2021, but currently, his striking is a 70. Because of how du Plessis is built, with all his muscle, and how hard he blitzes in the 1st round, you think here’s a guy who’s a 1 round fighter. But the dude is a freak. He had his foot on the gas pedal, the whole 15 minutes against Tavares. And amazingly, it was Tavares that gassed out in the 3rd round and couldn’t keep up. Striking was equal in the first 2 rounds, but then du Plessis pulled away in the 3rd. He also had more power than Tavaes. And because his wrestling was on par with Tavares, I’m upgrading his wrestling to a 65. This is a really interesting fight. Hard to know what we’re getting out of Till with how inactive he’s been. And it’s very possible du Plessis will use his cardio to take Till down and grind him out. He also has the power to knock Till out. But if Till can get back up and avoid the power shots, I’m confident he’ll land more and that path to victory I think gives him a slight edge in what should be a razor close fight.
Chris’ Pick: Till by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Till -125
Bryce Mitchell vs Ilia Topuria
- Bryce Mitchell
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Sayles. Beat Edson Barboza, Andre Fili, Charles Rosa, and Bobby Moffett.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Ilia Topuria
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 12-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-1 grappler and a 7-1 wrestler. Knocked out Ryan Hall, Damon Jackson, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Youssef Zalal.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I know for a fact that Barboza has 65 wrestling. He’s still in his prime. And wow, did Mitchell blow me away by being able to take Barboza down almost at will and control him for over 11 minutes of the fight. Dominant. Last time someone dominated Barboza on the ground like that was Khabib Nurmagomedov. It’s like every time we see Mitchell, he shows up improved. And to top it all off, his striking was on par with Barboza’s. Strikes were 15 to 9. Small sample, bit of projection baked in, but likely 70 striking for Mitchell now. Yes, Topuria’s KO over Jai Herbert was spectacular. But let’s look at the numbers. 65 striker Herbert actually landed more in the 1st round 16 to 6. Then Topuria knocks him out at the beginning of the 2nd round. So I can’t grade Topuria’s striking any better than a 65. And let’s look at the grappling. Line closed with Topuria as a -600 favorite. Market believed Herbert had 55 wrestling. I agreed. Topuria would cruise here cause he could take Herbert down and keep him there. Maybe some thought Topuria’s grappling is a 70. Well, Topuria got a take down in the 1st round, had a couple minutes of control, but Herbert got back up. Topuria even finished the fight 1 for 4 on take down attempts, so maybe Herbert improved his wrestling to a 60, but I certainly can’t grade Topuria’s grappling better than a 65. Which means I think Mitchell will be able to take Topuria down the same way he took Barboza down, threatening with submissions. Topuria does have more power, so Mitchell has to watch out for that, but Topuria isn’t more dangerous than Barboza. Mitchell should get it done.
Chris’ Pick: Mitchell by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Mitchell -225
Raul Rosas Jr vs Jay Perrin
- Raul Rosas Jr
- Age: 18
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jay Perrin
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-6
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 12-4 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
I’ll admit I under estimated Perrin. Qileng Aori opened a -300 favorite but by the time it closed he was only a -130 favorite. Market was right. Striking was close to equal. Perrin’s wrestling and cardio was a bit better, especially in the 3rd round, so I’ve upgraded his tools. Not because of where his tools are at currently, but because of the age of the fighter, Rosas Jr has similarities to Jon Jones back when he first started. That said,I thought he was going to lose to Mando Guttierez on the Contender. I thought Guttierez would try to stuff some take downs and out strike him. But it turned out, even at his age, Rosas Jr had the better grappling. Which is so impressive considering Guttierez is a very legit prospect with 60 grappling. Striking was close to equal. Perrin might be one of the best 0-3 fighters the UFC has ever had. He’s really good. And his wrestling is very close to a 65. I see Perrin making sure at least decent size chunks of this fight plays out on the feet. And Perrin’s striking should be better.
Chris’ Pick: Perrin by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Perrin -135
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Chris Daukaus
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Augusto Sakai, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Andrei Arlovski.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Chris Daukaus
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexei Oleinik and Rodrigo Nascimento.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The fact that Daukaus has lost 2 in a row shows there’s a bit of a gap between where he’s at and the top #5 at heavyweight. The thing with Curtis Blaydes is that I grade his striking a 70, not so much because of his technique, but because the wrestling threat forces his opponents to keep their hands down lower than they normally would. So Blaydes lands a lot. And that’s how he knocked Daukaus out. With Rozenstruik, he has well established his striking tool as being a 70. I thought Volkov would win, but he’d use his 70 wrestling to do it. And what ended up happening is Volkov out landed him by 21 to 6. So Maybe Volkov elevated his striking to 75. Or maybe Rozenstruik’s hands were lower to try and stuff take downs. In any case, I think this fight is simple. Rozenstruik should have the better striking, unless Daukaus shows up improved, which he could.
Chris’ Pick: Rozenstruik by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rozenstruik -200
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dalcha Lungiambula
- Edmen Shahbazyan
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Tavares and Charles Byrd.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Dalcha Lungiambula
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Split decision over a 16-3 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The market had Punahele Soriano as a -200 favorite against Lungiambula. I disagreed with it, had both graded equal. I thought Soriano should be a slight favorite because Lungiambula is known to gas out after the 1st round. And the numbers prove me right. Striking was close to equal in 1st round. And Soriano got the KO at the start of the 2nd round. Despite losing 3 in a row, Shahbazyan didn’t do that bad in his last fight with 70 striker Nassourdine Imavov. Striking was close to equal. But once again Shahbazyan’s cardio woes reared their ugly head. Imavov forced Shahbazyan to grapple most of the fight. And towards the end of the 2nd round, Shahbazyan was put on his back and just couldn’t get up anymore. Out of gas. And got lost via TKO ground and pound. He still has the tools and his age on his side, he just needs to improve his cardio. But that shouldn’t be an issue with an opponent with similar problems. Fight is a bit of a mismatch. I see Shahbazyan’s striking on a way higher level. I don’t see Lungiambula being much of a threat.
Chris’ Pick: Shahbazyan by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Shahbazyan -350
Chris Curtis vs Joaquin Buckley
- Chris Curtis
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 12-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brendan Allen, Phil Hawes, a well rounded 13-3 fighter. a 10-1 striker, an 8-2 striker and an 18-5 wrestler. Beat Rodolfo Vieira, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 18-4 fighter. Majority decision win over an 11-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Joaquin Buckley
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Antonio Arroyo, Jordan Wright, Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision wins over Abdul Razak Alhassan and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
There’s no way around. Buckley’s striking got better. I thought he’d get out classed by Nassourdine Imavov on the feet. Line closed with Imavov as a -240 favorite because of it. But by the end of the fight, Buckley landed more shots 44 to 36. I know Imavov has 70 grade striking. But Buckley’s wrestling remained as a 60 as Imavov, who I thought had 65 wrestling, was able to take Buckley down repeatedly and able to control him. Imavov’s wrestling probably improved to a 70. Curtis got a short notice opportunity last time out against Jack Hermansson and was out classed on the feet as Hermansson out landed him 99 to 41. But the wrestling was interesting. Hermansson went 0 for 6 on take down attempts, but I don’t think he went all out for them. I think he just leveled changed to give Curtis something to think about. Hermansson was having so much success on the feet. So because of that, I’m keeping Curtis’ wrestling a 65, but it’s possible he might’ve elevated the tool to a 70. Interesting fight in the sense that Buckley will win easily if the fight stays on the feet. But Curtis should be able to take Buckley down, so it should be a striker vs wrestler match up. But Buckley’s power is the difference for me.
Chris’ Pick: Buckley by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Buckley -135
Billy Quarantillo vs Alexander Hernandez
- Billy Quarantillo
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Michel Quinones.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez, Kyle Nelson, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 5-1 wrestler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Spike Carlyle.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Alexander Hernandez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Beneil Dariush and Chris Greutzemacher. Beat Oliver Aubin-Mercier and Francisco Trinaldo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Quarantillo is interesting because going into his last fight with Shane Burgos, I thought he’d have to take Burgos down and submit him to win. But Burgos stuffed most of the shots. But to my surprise, Quarantillo had improved his striking. I had Burgos as a shaky 70 striker going in. Striking was close to equal. Burgos’ more than likely has 65 striking, which means I’m going to upgrade Quarantillo’s striking to a 65 too. Hernandez out struck Renato Moicano in the 1st round of their fight, but I think it had more to do with Hernandez putting his foot on the gas pedal. Because the 2nd round was different with 70 striker Moicano out landing him 16 to 9. Moicano hurt Hernandez, stuffed a take down, took the back, got the choke. I think it’s possible if Hernandez was more efficient, his striking could get up to a 70. I think he’ll land more shots, has more power. My only concern is that Quarantillo’s cardio is way better. He’ll probably push Hernandez hard and will likely win the 3rd round. So Hernandez really has to take the 1st and 2nd.
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hernandez -125
Erik Silva vs TJ Brown
- Erik Silva
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key WIns: Submitted a well rounded 18-6 fighter. Knocked out a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- TJ Brown
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by 11-17 journeyman and a 3-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker and an 8-1 striker. Split decision over Kai Kamaka.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
I think Brown is close to his ceiling. Developmentally, he hasn’t improved much in the past couple years. His last opponent Nuerdanbieke Shayilan has 65 wrestling, was able to take Brown down a few times. Striking was close to equal. It’s possible I’m over rating Silva’s wrestling, it could be a 60, but I did my homework. And his opponent on the Contender, I’m pretty sure his wrestling was a 55. But even if the wrestling was a 50, the way Silva had him down within 10 seconds and pummeled him the whole fight, I think his wrestling is a 65 regardless. I think Silva will mix in some take downs, has more power on the feet. Is more likely to show up improved. Silva should win, but fight could be closer if Silva’s wrestling is a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -175
Steven Koslow vs Cameron Saaiman
- Steven Koslow
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Cameron Saaiman
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Saaiman has a very high ceiling making his UFC debut on the Contender at 20 years old. Knocked out a Josh Wang Kim who had well rounded 55 tools. Saaiman did what I expected him to do. Out struck Kim 54 to 37. Not much video out there on Koslow. What makes him an even bigger unknown quantity is that he hasn’t fought a single quality opponent. Best opponent he’s gone against had a 4-4 record. So my grades have a lot of projection baked in. But he’s taking the fight on less than 2 weeks. Seems like a submission specialist as all 6 of his wins are by 1st round submission. I see him blitzing Saaiman hard in the 1st round, going all in. I think Saaiman survives the storm and after it passes, overwhelms Koslow on the feet. Unless of course, Koslow turns out to be really good.
Chris’ Pick: Saaiman by 1st round knockout.
What I think odds should be: Saaiman -250