Song Yadong vs Ricky Simon
- Yadong Song
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 8-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Cody Stamann to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marlon Moraes, Julio Arce, Felipe Arantes, and Alejandro Perez. Beat Marlon Vera. Split decision over Casey Kenney.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ricky Simon
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Urijah Faber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jack Shore and Merab Dvalishvili. Knocked out Raphael Assuncao. Beat Brian Kelleher, Montel Jackson, and Rani Yahya. Split decision over Ray Borg.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
75 might seem to be an aggressive number to grade Simon’s striking, but I stand by it. He’s proved it enough times. Especially the way he beat Shore on the ground. Yadong is pound for pound one of the best young fighters in the UFC and a possible future champion, but his wrestling and cardio won’t be enough to stop Simon from doing what he normally does.
Chris’ Pick: Simon by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Simon -225
Caio Borralho vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Caio Borralho
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat Makhmud Muradov, Armen Petrosyan, Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, a 10-2 striker, and a 7-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ovince St. Preux.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Brundage, Shamil Gamzatov, Gian Villante, Gadzhimurad Antigulov, and a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over Modestas Bukauskas.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Striker vs wrestler here. Whole fight will be decided based on whether Borralho can take Oleksiejczuk down and control him there or not. That simple. And I think he can, for the most part.
Chris’ Pick: Borralho by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Borralho -200
Rodolfo Vieira vs Cody Brundage
- Rodolfo Vieira
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Dustin Stoltzfus, Oskar Piechota, Saparbek Safarov, and a well rounded 10-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Cody Brundage
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tresean Gore. Submitted Dalcha Lungiambula and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Vieira continues to make small steps of improvement. Despite losing to Chris Curtis, he didn’t gas out at the end of the fight. He wasn’t able to take 65 wrestler Curtis down. Traded strikes. Curtis got the better of it, but Vieira did okay, showing 55 striking. Real coin flip fight because Vieira will probably get Brundage down at least a couple times and could legitimately get the submission. Brundage will probably have more power. But I’m picking Brundage because I think his goal will be to put a really heavy pace on Vieira to tire him out as soon as possible.
Chris’ Pick: Brundage by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Brundage -125
Julian Erosa vs Fernando Padilla
- Julian Erosa
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 10-7
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Artem Lobov and Teruto Ishihara.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Landwehr and Jamall Emmers. Submitted Charles Jourdain and Sean Woodson. Beat Hakeem Dawodu. Split decision over Steven Peterson.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Fernando Padilla
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 14-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Spike Carlyle.
- Key Wins: Submitted Darrick Minner. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-3 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I thought maybe Erosa had improved his striking to a 70 after he upset Dawodu. But after his fight with Alex Caceres, where the striking was close to equal, before he got knocked out, I think a 65 grade is closer to where the tool is at. Padilla is tall and lanky for the weight. Possible his striking could be a 60. But even if it is, Erosa’s striking will prove to be too much, too soon.
Chris’ Pick: Erosa by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Erosa -300
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker and a 9-1 striker. Beat Chase Sherman and Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 5-3 at heavyweight. 9-6 in the UFC overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Stefan Struve.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ben Rothwell. Submitted Andrei Arlovski. Beat Maurice Greene and Adam Wieczorek.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
When I saw Cortes-Acosta close as a -240 favorite, I scoffed. I was pretty convinced Sherman’s striking was a 65 and at worst, this would be a coin flip fight. But instead, to my shock, Cortes-Acosta out classed Sherman. To the tune of Cortes-Acosta out landing him 142 to 66. So not only is it likely Sherman’s striking may be closer to a 60, but Cortes-Acosta showed up better than the market thought. So much so that I’m now grading his striking as a 70. So we’ve established that Cortes-Acosta is a great prospect. But he’s going to have big problems with Rogerio de Lima’s power. Big power difference. I also think Rogerio de LIma could get a couple take downs too. 4 of the last 6 of Rogerio de Lima’s fights have ended in the 1st round.
Chris’ Pick: Rogerio de Lima by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rogerio de Lima -200
Trey Waters vs Josh Quinlan
- Trey Waters
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Josh Quinlan
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jason Witt. Submitted a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Despite Waters getting submitted in the 1st round against Gabriel Bonfim, I actually think he out performed the market. Bonfim closed as a near -500 favorite, but the fight was close up until Bonfim got Waters stuck in a von Flue choke. Striking was close to equal. Coin flip fight, will be fun to watch. Waters steps in on a week’s notice, but with how fast both guys like to start it probably won’t matter.
Chris’ Pick: Quinlan by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Quinlan -125
Jake Collier vs Martin Buday
- Jake Collier
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 2-4 at heavyweight. 5-7 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrei Arlovski.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chase Sherman. Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Gian Villante and a 9-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Martin Buday
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker. Beat Chris Barnett. Split decision over Lukas Brzeski.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Buday usually likes to win with his wrestling and clinch game, but he won’t be able to utilize it with Collier. Collier might have 3 losses in his last 4 fights, but 2 of them are split decisions to decent opponents. Collier’s striking might be more like a 60, but even if it is, there’s margin here for him to beat Buday.
Chris’ Pick: Collier by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Collier -225
Charles Johnson vs Cody Durden
- Charles Johnson
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ode Osbourne.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jimmy Flick and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision wins over Zhulgas Zhumagulov, a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Cody Durden
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out JP Buys and a 6-2 grappler. Submitted a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Carlos Mota and Qileng Aori.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
It might be tempting to look at the end result or even watch the Durden vs Mota fight and conclude that Durden was just doing what he normally does. Wrestler. Took his opponent down, no big deal. But we can’t forget that Mota closed as a -160 favorite. Which means at worst, Mota’s wrestling is a 55. No way it’s worse than that. Which means I think Durden elevated his wrestling to a 65 grade. I have both guys graded identically but there’s an argument for Johnson’s wrestling to be a 60 after Ode Osbourne’s wrestling fared better against him than I thought it would. I also think it’s also possible that Durden could’ve improved his striking to a 65, so for those reasons, I give him a slight edge.
Chris’ Pick: Durden by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Durden -125
Stephanie Egger vs Irina Alekseeva
- Stephanie Egger
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Ailin Perez and Jessica Rose Clark. Knocked out Shanna Young and Mara Romero Borella. Beat a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Irina Alekseeva
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 8-6 fighter.
- Key Wins: Beat a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Alekseeva is one of these fighters with not many pro fights and she hasn’t fought in over a year and a half. One of those fighters that you expect to show up improved. And for what it’s worth, I watcher her fight with Liliya Kazak and thought Alekseeva won. I do know where Egger’s skills are at. She should be a little better than Alekseeva everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Egger by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Egger -200
Marcus McGhee vs Journey Newson
- Marcus McGhee
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Journey Newson
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Beat Fernie Garcia.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average wrestling (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
It’s possible that Newson improved his striking to a 65. He actually out struck Sergey Morozov 25 to 16. But he lost because Morozov had the cardio to take him down repeatedly the whole fight. I wasn’t that impressed with McGhee. I watched a 6-1 grappler take him down once, get a body triangle in, and McGhee wasn’t able to get out, got choked out. Then he took on a 6-6 grappler. Mostly stayed on his feet. Sprawled well, but again, against lower competition. It’s possible McGhee’s striking could be a 60, I see him blitzing Newson and going all in on the 1st round KO being he took the fight on less than a week’s notice. But I like Newson here because he should not only have the better striking, but also the ability to take McGhee down if things get too crazy.
Chris’ Pick: Newson by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Newson -325
Hailey Cowan vs Jamey-Lyn Horth
- Hailey Cowan
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-2 fighter.
- Key Wins: Split decision over an 8-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Jamey-Lyn Horth
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 grappker. Knocked out a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I guess I was under rating Cowan a bit. I knew she was coming in with some hype, but I wasn’t as impressed with her on LFA and Invicta. But she did show up, edged out a close split decision win. Horth couldn’t have been more impressive in her last fight. She took on a 9-3 grappler, line closed as a pick, but Horth dominated, was able to take the grappler down and controlled her for most of the fight. I know the grappler for sure has at least 55 grappling, so I’m confident that Horth is one of the rare prospects that comes into the UFC with a 65 tool. I’m also decently confident Horth’s striking is a 60, but not as confident being that I didn’t see too much of it in the LFA fight. Horth should be a little bit better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Horth by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Horth -225