Erin Blanchfield vs Manon Fiorot
- Erin Blanchfield
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Tracy Cortez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Submitted Jessica Andrade, Molly McCann, and JJ Aldrich. Beat Taila Santos, Miranda Maverick, and Sarah Alpar. Majority decision over Kay Hansen.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Manon Fiorot
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo and Tabatha Ricci. Beat Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, Jennifer Maia, Mayra Bueno Silva, and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Blanchfield by 4th round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Blanchfield -175
Vicente Luque vs Joaquin Buckley
- Vicente Luque
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 15-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Belal Muhammad, Chad Laprise, and Bryan Barbarena. Submitted and knocked out Niko Price. Also submitted Michael Chiesa and Tyron Woodley. Beat Rafael dos Anjos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Joaquin Buckley
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Fialho, Antonio Arroyo, Jordan Wright, Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat Alex Morono and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision wins over Abdul Razak Alhassan and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
There have been times when I’ve thought Buckley’s striking is a 70. But there’s zero chance Andre Fialho has 70 striking and the strikes between Buckely and Fialho was close to equal. Ditto for Buckley vs Morono. Luque showed he still has 70 striking by out landing against dos Anjos 60 to 38.
Chris’ Pick: Luque by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Luque -300
Chris Weidman vs Bruno Silva
- Chris Weidman
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 11-6 UFC at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum. Beat Omari Akhmedov and Lyoto Machida.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 22-11 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Tavares, Jordan Wright, Wellington Turman, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 11-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I know Silva’s wrestling is at least a 65 as he successfully defended a couple Brendan Allen take downs. Silva did lose to Shara Magomedov by a wide margin, but that’s because Magomedov is really good. Brad Tavares out struck Weidman 68 to 35. Weidman has regressed.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -350
Nursulton Ruziboev vs Sedriques Dumas
- Nursulton Ruziboev
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 35-8-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 wrestler and a well rounded 17-11 fighter.
- Key Draws: Fought a 3-2 grappler to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brunno Ferreira, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a well rounded 8-1 fighter, and a well rounded 14-5 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 14-4 fighter. Beat a well rounded 40-9 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Sedriques Dumas
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-0 striker. Beat Abu Azaitar and Cody Brundage.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Ruziboev by 2nd round knockout
What I think the odds should be: Ruziboev -175
Bill Algeo vs Kyle Nelson
- Bill Algeo
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Submitted TJ Brown. Knocked out Herbert Burns and a 27-8 grappler. Beat Alexander Hernandez, Joanderson Brito, Spike Carlyle, a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Kyle Nelson
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Doo Ho Choi to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy and Marco Polo Reyes. Beat Fernando Padilla and Blake Bilder.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
My initial reaction to Nelson vs Padilla was that Padilla’s striking wasn’t a 65 after all. That Padilla was a tad over rated. But I just watched Padilla vs Luis Pajuelo and Padilla’s 65 striking is very much intact. So it looks like there’s a very good chance Nelson’s striking has leveled up to a 65. Also possible Nelson’s wrestling could be a 65 now too, but I haven’t seen enough yet. Algeo should win mixing in a couple take downs, landing more shots and having better cardio, but there’s more risk Nelson could KO Algeo than I thought before.
Chris’ Pick: Algeo by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Algeo -200
Chidi Njokuani vs Rhys McKee
- Chidi Njokuani
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Albert Duraev.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Todorovic, Marc Andre Barriault, a well rounded 12-1 fighter, an 18-4 wrestler, an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 6-1 fighter and an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-2 wrestler, an 8-2 striker, an 11-3 striker, and a 10-3 grappler. Split decision over Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Rhys McKee
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-5-1
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jai Herbert in 2016, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Slight possibility McKee’s striking is a 65. More confident his wrestling is just a 55 as Ange Loosa was able to take him down multiple times.
Chris’ Pick: Njokuani by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Njokuani -275
Nate Landwehr vs Jamall Emmers
- Nate Landwehr
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Austin Lingo and Ludovit Klein. Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 13-2 grappler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter. Beat Darren Elkins, a 6-2 grappler, a 9-2 grappler, and a 15-3 grappler (twice). Majority decision over David Onama.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jamall Emmers
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Jenkins.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Knocked out Dennis Buzukja and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Cory Sandhagen back in 2017. Split decision win over Alexander Hernandez back in 2013.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Landwehr’s striking is 70ish after the Ige fight. Close enough to a 70 grade for me to have him there. But it wouldn’t surprise me if the fight was close. Landwehr’s cardio should give him a slight edge in the second half of the fight as well.
Chris’ Pick: Landwehr by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Landwehr -200
Virna Jandiroba vs Loopy Godinez
- Virna Jandiroba
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a 10-2 striker. Beat Marina Rodriguez and Angela Hill. Split decision wins over Mizuki Inoue and a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Loopy Godinez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-1 at 115 lbs. 7-2 overall
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
- Key Wins: Submitted Elise Reed and Silvana Juarez. Beat Emily Ducote, Ariane Carnelossi, and Loma Lookboonmee. Split decision wins over Tabatha Ricci and Cynthia Calvillo. Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Jandiroba turned in the best performance of her career by accumulating over 12 minutes of control time on Marina Rodriguez. Possible her striking leveled up to a 70 as Rodriguez only out struck her 10 to 7.
Chris’ Pick: Jandiroba by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jandiroba -175
Julio Arce vs Herbert Burns
- Julio Arce
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sheymon Moraes.
- Key Wins: Beat Daniel Santos and Dan Ige.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Herbert Burns
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Landwehr. Submitted Evan Dunham, a 5-0 striker, a well rounded 9-1 fighter, and a 7-2 striker. Beat a 10-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Burns’ grappling in the 1st round looks like a 70 tool, but then a lot of times he gasses out and isn’t the same guy in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. But. Montel Jackson had success controlling Arce for chunks of time in the fight. Pretty confident his wrestling is just a 60. Arce hasn’t fought in a year and a half. Makes sense for Burns to blitz Arce early, plays up to his strengths.
Chris’ PIck: Burns by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Burns -135
Connor Matthews vs Dennis Buzukja
- Connor Matthews
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-3 grappler. Beat a 10-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Dennis Buzukja
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Matthews by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Matthews -250
Anton Turkalj vs Ibo Aslan
- Anton Turkalj
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 1-2 at 205 lbs. 1-3 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat a 14-4 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Ibo Aslan
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-2 striker and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Turkalj has been finished quick in 2 of his last 3 fights. I don’t think he’s going to be durable enough for Aslan.
Chris’ Pick: Aslan by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Aslan -175
Melissa Gatto vs Viktoriia Dudakova
- Melissa Gatto
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-2-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ariane Lipski.
- Key Draws: Fought a 9-4-1 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karol Rosa. Knocked out Victoria Leonardo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Viktoriia Dudakova
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Istela Nunes. Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat Jinh Yu Frey and Maria Silva.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I’m really confident Dudakova’s striking is just a 60 based on her striking numbers with Frey. Slight chance her grappling is only a 60 as well as Frey did have her moments in that fight. I know that Ariane Lipski’s striking is at least a 65 for sure and Gatto out struck Lipski 70 to 53.
Chris’ Pick: Gatto by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Gatto -275
Andre Petroski vs Jacob Malkoun
- Andre Petroski
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Nick Maximov and Yaozong Hu. Beat Wellington Turman. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jacob Malkoun
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Beat Nick Maximov, AJ Dobson, and Abdul Razak Alhassan.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Malkoun by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Malkoun -200
Caolan Loughran vs Angel Pacheco
- Caolan Loughran
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-0 striker, a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Angel Pacheco
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Based on how good Danny Silva looked against Josh Culibao, I’m upgrading Pacheco’s tools a tad. But it is a projection and I’m least confident about his striking being a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Loughran by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Loughran -175