Rose Namajunas vs Tracy Cortez
- Rose Namajunas
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 12-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Submitted Joanne Calderwood and Michelle Waterson. Beat Amanda Ribas and Tecia Torres. Split decision over Jessica Andrade.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Tracy Cortez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Beat Jasmine Jasudavicius, Melissa Gatto, Mariya Agapova, and Stephanie Egger. Split decision wins over Justin Kish and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
And here I was thinking Cortez’s striking was only a 60, going into the Jasudavicius fight. First time Cortez really relied on the stand up tools and she out struck Jasudavicius 91 to 58. Grading Namajunas’ striking is quite the puzzle. On the one hand, I know 100% for sure Manon Fiorot has 75 striking and her strikes landed were close to equal in her fight with Namajunas. On the other hand, I know Ribas had 70 striking going into her Namajunas fight. And I was so sure Namajunas would out strike her but instead, Namajunas only out struck her 81 to 76. Really close. So what’s more likely? Namajunas regressing at age 31 or Ribas’ striking leveling up at age 30? Probably the latter, but I could be wrong. Being that Cortez was training for a 3 round fight, took this 5 round matchup on less than 2 weeks notice, and they’re fighting at high altitude, Namajunas will likely have a big cardio edge.
Chris’ Pick: Namajunas by 4th round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Namajunas -250
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Muslim Salikhov
- Santiago Ponzinibbio
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 11-6
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Michel Pereira and Geoff Neal.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Morono, Gunnar Nelson, and Neil Magny. Beat Miguel Baeza, Mike Perry, Nordine Taleb, and Zak Cummings.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Muslim Salikhov
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Alex Garcia.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Fialho, Nordine Taleb, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Francisco Trinaldo, Laureano Staropoli, and an 8-1 wrestler. Split decision over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Ponzinibbio by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ponzinibbio -225
Drew Dober vs Jean Silva
- Drew Dober
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 13-9
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricky Glenn, Bobby Green, Terrance McKinney, Alexander Hernandez, and Nasrat Haqparast. Beat Scott Holtzman.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jean Silva
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Charles Jourdain, a well rounded 4-0 fighter, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a 5-2 striker. Submitted a 5-2 striker. Beat an 11-0 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Silva takes on his 2nd fight in 2 weeks, but he didn’t take much damage in the Jourdain fight. Silva for sure validated that he does have 70 striking. He’s fighting up a weight class, but it’s likely his tools could translate better at 155 lbs where he doesn’t have such a harsh cut. Dober does have legit 65 wrestling and he very well might use that to take Silva down and grind him out in the high altitude.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Silva -200
Gabriel Bonfim vs Ange Loosa
- Gabriel Bonfim
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 15-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Trevin GIles, Mounir Lazzez, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Ange Loosa
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Beat Rhys McKee and AJ Fletcher. Split decision loss to an 8-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Split decision win over a 3-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Obviously how Bonfim lost his first fight. Ran out of gas. He should learn his lesson and should have the ability to take Loosa down and submit him there. But the thing that makes me a bit nervous is they’re fighting at high altitude in Denver. So Bonfim needs to be smart here.
Chris’ Pick: Bonfim by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bonfim -200
Christian Rodriguez vs Julian Erosa
- Christian Rodriguez
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Joshua Weems. Beat Cameron Saaiman, Raul Rosas Jr, and a 5-1 striker. Split decision over Isaac Dulgarian.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Julian Erosa
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 11-8
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Artem Lobov and Teruto Ishihara.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Landwehr and Jamall Emmers. Submitted Ricardo Ramos, Charles Jourdain, and Sean Woodson. Beat Hakeem Dawodu. Split decision over Steven Peterson.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
After Erosa got knocked out two fights in a row, I thought he was starting to regress. But then he returns against Ramos, goes close to equal in the striking and submits Ramos in a guillotine. So his skills are intact, although I still don’t trust his chin and durability.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rodriguez -135
Cody Brundage vs Abdul Razak Alhassan
- Cody Brundage
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zachary Reese and Tresean Gore. Submitted Dalcha Lungiambula and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Abdul Razak Alhassan
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Joaquin Buckley and Omari Akhmedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Claudio Ribeiro, Alessio di Chirico, and Niko Price.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Alhassan has 11 UFC fights now and hasn’t seen any improvement in his skills for awhile. Brundage’s cardio is really good, trains at high altitude. I see Alhassan gassing out.
Chris’ Pick: Brundage by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Brundage -200
Joshua Van vs Charles Johnson
- Joshua Van
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Felipe Bunes and a 7-1 wrestler. Beat Kevin Borjas. Split decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Charles Johnson
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ode Osbourne.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jimmy Flick and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Jake Hadley and Azat Maksum. Split decision wins over Zhulgas Zhumagulov, a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Van is a very unique fighter. In all 3 of his UFC fights, he loses the 1st round, then comes back to steamroll his opponent the rest of the way. Striking is on the low end of a 70 grade, but closer to a 70 than a 65. And the high altitude gives Van a huge advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Van by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Van -275
Fatima Kline vs Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Fatima Kline
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 4-1 striker and a well rounded 6-3-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 4-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted Priscila Cachoeira. Beat Miranda Maverick, Gabriella Fernandes, Kay Hansen, and an 8-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Kline looks like a future title contender, possible champion even. Her upside is that high. But she’s taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. She’s not coming completely off the couch as she was training for a September fight on Contender Series. Kline is fighting up a weight class too. So her skills won’t translate as well there as at 115 lbs. And. This fight is in Denver where cardio will matter even more than usual.
Chris’ Pick: Jasudavicius by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jasudavicius -200
Da’Mon Blackshear vs Montel Jackson
- Da’Mon Blackshear
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-6-1
- UFC Record: 2-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought to majority draw with Youssef Zalal.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Luan Lacerda. Submitted Jose Johnson, Aalon Cruz, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Montel Jackson
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Rani Yahya. Beat Julio Arce, JP Buys, and Felipe Corales.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Blackshear is very interesting. In the span of 5 months last year, he fought an astonishing 4 times. Went 2-2 in that span. But since his last fight, which he took 2 fights in the span of 7 days, he’s taken a year off. Returns now. And despite taking the Bautista fight on 7 days notice, Blackshear’s wrestling matched Bautista’s. And Blackshear actually landed more strikes 52 to 51. So he’s got easy 70 tools for me. Matter of fact, his grappling is really close to a 75 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Blackshear by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Blackshear -275
Mariya Agapova vs Luana Santos
- Mariya Agapova
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Sabina Mazo and Hannah Cifers. Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Luana Santos
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Juliana Miller. Beat Stephanie Egger and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
This is Agapova’s first fight in 2 years. Very real chance she shows up with better wrestling. But unfortunately for her, even if the wrestling tool becomes a 60, Santos will still likely get her down. Santos being able to get Egger down and get some control time was really impressive.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Santos -250
Josh Fremd vs Andre Petroski
- Josh Fremd
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Submitted Sedriques Dumas and a 5-1 wrestler. Beat Jamie Pickett. Split decision over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Andre Petroski
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Nick Maximov and Yaozong Hu. Beat Wellington Turman. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Either Petroski leveled up in his last fight or I’m over rating Jacob Malkoun. It’s one or the other. But I’m pretty sure I have Malkoun graded accurately, which would mean despite getting finished, Petroski did show up improved. Fremd had a similar experience where he for sure came into the fight improved, but still got knocked out.
Chris’ Pick: Petroski by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Petroski -175
Evan Elder vs Darrius Flowers
- Evan Elder
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Beat Genaro Valdez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Darrius Flowers
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-7
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-2 striker, a 4-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Now that I know how good Nazim Sadykhov is, I know how good Elder is. Elder’s cardio is also well suited for a short notice fight in Denver. And Flowers lost his last 2 fights to Michael Johnson largely because he gassed out.
Chris’ Pick: Elder by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Elder -200