Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov
- Cory Sandhagen
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Edgar, Marlon Moraes, and Iuri Alcantara. Submitted Mario Bautista. Beat Rob Font, Yadong Song, and Raphael Assuncao. Split decision wins over Marlon Vera and John Lineker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Umar Nurmagomedov
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raoni Barcelos. Submitted Brian Kelleher and Sergey Morozov. Beat Bekzat Almakhan, Nathan Maness, a 12-0-1 grappler, and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Sandhagen by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Sandhagen -275
Shara Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Shara Magomedov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Antonio Trocolli, a 16-4 striker, a 4-1 striker, and a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat Bruno Silva and a 21-5 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-3 at 185 lbs. 7-6 overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ovince St. Preux.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chidi Njokuani, Cody Brundage, Shamil Gamzatov, Gian Villante, Gadzhimurad Antigulov, and a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over Modestas Bukauskas.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Hard to take away much from Magomedov’s last fight with Trocoli, who was already a mystery, being that he hadn’t fought in 3 years, and with Magomedov, he took the fight on less than a week’s notice. Oleksiejczuk makes a quick 2 month turnaround after it appeared Kevin Holland might have broken his arm with an armbar.
Chris’ Pick: Magomedov by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Magomedov -175
Marlon Vera vs Deiveson Figueiredo
- Marlon Vera
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 15-8
- Key Losses: Lost to Douglas Silva de Andrade. Lost a controversial decision to Yadong Song.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Dominick Cruz, Frankie Edgar, Sean O’Malley, Frankie Saenz and Andre Ewell. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Rob Font, and Davey Grant.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Deiveson Figueiredo
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 2-0 at 135 lbs. 12-2-1 overall.
- Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Cody Garbrandt, Alex Perez, and Tim Elliott. Beat Rob Font, Moreno, and Alex Pantoja.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Not sure what to make of Garbrandt out striking Figueiredo 16 to 8. Maybe just small sample. Maybe Garbrandt wouldn’t have been able to keep that pace up. But he proved his 75 striking in the Font fight. I see Vera having the same types of problems he had with Cory Sandhagen.
Chris’ Pick: Figueiredo by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Figueiredo -350
Michael Chiesa vs Tony Ferguson
- Michael Chiesa
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 4-3 at 170 lbs. 11-7 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Beneil Bariush. Beat Neil Magny and Rafael dos Anjos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Tony Ferguson
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 18-8
- Key Wins: Submitted Edson Barboza and Kevin Lee. Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis. Beat Rafael dos Anjos.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
There was a time, after Chiesa beat Neil Magney, that I thought Chiesa’s grappling might be as high as a 75. But then Chiesa started to regress. Grappling tool was more likely a 70 all along, but during the Holland fight, Chiesa couldn’t even get him down once. Striking could be a 60. But that won’t matter against Ferguson who’s regression has been even more steep.
Chris’ Pick: Chiesa by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Chiesa -300
MacKenzie Dern vs Loopy Godinez
- Mackenzie Dern
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Nina Nunes, Randa Markos, and Hannah Cifers. Beat Angela Hill and Virna Jandiroba. Split decision wins over Tecia Torres and Ashley Yoder.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Loopy Godinez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-1 at 115 lbs. 7-2 overall
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
- Key Wins: Submitted Elise Reed and Silvana Juarez. Beat Emily Ducote, Ariane Carnelossi, and Loma Lookboonmee. Split decision wins over Tabatha Ricci and Cynthia Calvillo. Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Dern is one of the most inconsistent and frustrating fighters on the roster. Some fights, her grappling is a 75. Some fights, it’s a 70 tool. Sometimes she has good cardio, sometimes she doesn’t. But I do give her credit for improving her striking to a 70 grade. Strikes with Jessica Andrade and Amanda Lemos were close to equal.
Chris’ Pick: Dern by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dern -225
Joel Alvarez vs Elves Brener
- Joel Alvarez
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key WIns: Submitted Marc Diakiese, Alexander Yakovlev, Joseph Duffy, a 5-1 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a well rounded 14-2 fighter, and a 9-1 striker. Knocked out Thiago Moises and a 12-4 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Elves Brener
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 16-4
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Lost to a 10-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kaynan Kruschewsky and Guram Kutateladze. Submitted a 7-0 grappler, a 5-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Split decision over Zubaira Tukhugov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
The market had Alvarez priced as only a -195 favorite over Diakiese, thinking Alvarez’s striking is only a 65. I disagree, think it’s a 70. Last time we saw a decent sample size of his strikes was with Moises and Alvarez out struck him 36 to 11. After losing to Myktybek Orolbai, slight possibility Brener’s wrestling could be a 65. It’s close.
Chris’ Pick: Alvarez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Alvarez -175
Azamat Murzakanov vs Alonzo Menifield
- Azamat Murzakanov
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devin Clark, Tafon Nchukwi, Andre Muniz, Matheus Scheffel, and a 13-3 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Alonzo Menifield
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 10-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Crute to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jimmy Crute. Knocked out Misha Cirkunov, Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Dustin Jacoby.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Menifield got knocked out in 12 seconds in his last fight. That’s right up Murzakanov’s alley. I see him showing Menifield no respect.
Chris’ Pick: Murzakanov by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Murzakanov -200
Mohammad Yahya vs Kaue Fernandes
- Mohammad Yahya
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-2 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Kaue Fernandes
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marc Diakiese.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 wrestler. Knocked out a 19-5 striker, a 6-0 wrestler, and a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Beat a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Fernandes by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Fernandes -125
Shamil Gaziev vs Don’Tale Mayes
- Shamil Gaziev
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Martin Buday, Darko Stosic, and a 4-0 striker. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision over a 13-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Don’tale Mayes
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-6
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Allen Crowder. Split decision loss to Hamdy Abdelwahab.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Arlovski, Josh Parisian, a 10-1 grappler, and a 4-0 striker. Beat Caio Machado.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I think Gaziev’s power is slightly more potent and mixing in take downs should get Mayes to drop his hands.
Chris’ Pick: Gaziev by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gaziev -175
Guram Kutateladze vs Jordan Vucenic
- Guram Kutateladze
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Damir Ismagulov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 wrestler and a 9-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 22-5 fighter. Split decision over Mateusz Gamrot.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Jordan Vucenic
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter and a 6-0 striker. Split decision over Paul Hughes and Morgan Charriere.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Vucenic has a split decision win over Morgan Charriere back in 2021, so we know he has legit skills. Watching one of his last fights, it seems like his striking and grappling is on the lower end of 65 grades.
Chris’ Pick: Kutateladze by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kutateladze -125
Viktoriia Dudakova vs Sam Hughes
- Viktoriia Dudakova
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Istela Nunes. Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat Jinh Yu Frey and Maria Silva.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Sam Hughes
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 grappler. Beat Jaqueline Amorim and a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Majority decision over Istela Nunes.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Hughes might have lost her last fight to Yazmin Jauregui, but she definitely leveled up. Jauregui only out struck her 84 to 80. The market priced Dudakova as a monster -500 favorite over Frey, with 70 grappling, and Dudakova under performed. Is it possible Frey got better and showed up with 65 wrestling? Doubtful. Frey is 38 years old with 8 UFC fights. Maybe Frey caught Dudakova off guard? Maybe Dudakova was trying to work some submissions off her back? Too early to tell, but I think a 60 grade is right for her grappling. But even if the grappling is a 65, it won’t stop Hughes from winning here.
Chris’ Pick: Hughes by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hughes -250
Jai Herbert vs Rolando Bedoya
- Jai Herbert
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 2-4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Francisco Trinaldo.
- Key Draws: Fought Ludovit Klein to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy, an 8-2 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3 fighter. Beat Kyle Nelson.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Rolando Bedoya
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Khaos Williams.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 9-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
The market didn’t believe that Herbert had improved his wrestling to a 65, but the fight with Fares Ziam proved that it is.
Chris’ Pick: Herbert by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Herbert -200
Sedriques Dumas vs Denis Tiuliulin
- Sedriques Dumas
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-0 striker. Beat Abu Azaitar and Cody Brundage.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Denis Tiuliulin
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 10-9
- UFC Record: 1-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Pickett and a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Dumas by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dumas -250