Du Plessis vs Adesanya, Erceg vs Kara France, Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik Fight Picks – UFC 305 – August 17, 2024

Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya

  • Dricus du Plessis
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 7-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Darren Till, a well rounded 7-2-2 fighter, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Knocked out Robert Whittaker, Derek Brunson, Trevin Giles, Markus Perez, a 13-2 striker, and a well rounded 30-7 fighter. Beat Brad Tavares. Split decision win over Sean Strickland.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
  • Israel Adesanya
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 13-1 at 185 lbs. 13-2 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Pereira, Paulo Costa, Robert Whittaker, and Derek Brunson. Beat Jared Cannonier, Marvin Vettori, Kelvin Gastelum, and Anderson Silva.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Prior to Adesanya matching up with Strickland, I said Adesanya being priced at -600 was bonkers. Maybe the market thought Adesanya had top of the scale 80 grade striking. Market was probably really under rating Strickland’s striking. Striking numbers were stunning with Strickland out striking him 121 to 94, with the 4th and 5th rounds where Strickland really pulled away. But the thing that stood out to me the most after rewatching the fight was that Adesanya showed zero ability to adjust on the fly. He didn’t switch his game plan up. Kept doing the same thing over and over again, which is puzzling. Despite Strickland out striking Du Plessis 173 to 134, I still have Du Plessis’ striking as a 75. What really surprised me in that fight though was how Du Plessis got 6 take downs and showed 75 wrestling. Which could be the difference in beating Adesanya.

Chris’ Pick: Du Plessis by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Du Plessis -250


Steve Erceg vs Kai Kara France

  • Steve Erceg
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 12-2
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell. Submitted Shannon Ross and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat Alessandro Costa and David Dvorak.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Kai Kara France
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 7-4
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Amir Albazi.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Rogerio Bontorin. Beat Askar Askarov and Tyson Nam. Split decision over Raulian Paiva.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

I thought Amir Albazi walked into the Kara France with 65 tools. Market thought he had 70 tools and the market was right. That said, I don’t know how Kara France lost. He out struck Albazi 90 to 39 reaffirming his 75 striking. Erceg’s striking is very close to a 75 grade. Very real chance he shows up improved coming off that close title fight loss to Alexandre Pantoja.

Chris’ Pick: Kara France by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kara France -200


Mateusz Gamrot vs Dan Hooker

  • Mateusz Gamrot
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 7-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Diego Ferreira, Scott Holtzman, Norman Parke, a well rounded 9-1-1 fighter, a 16-0-1 grappler, and a 15-3 striker. Submitted Jeremy Stephens and a 9-1 grappler. Beat Rafael dos Anjos, Arman Tsarukyan, a 12-3-1 wrestler, a 24-4 grappler, a 21-7 grappler, and a 12-3 grappler. Split decision over Jalin Turner.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Dan Hooker
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 9-4 at 155 lbs. 12-8 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Claudio Puelles and James Vick. Beat Al Iaquinta and Nasrat Haqparast. Split decision wins over Jalin Turner and Paul Felder.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Hooker showed his 70 tools remained intact when upsetting Turner. Striking was close to equal.

Chris’ Pick: Hooker by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hooker -125


Tai Tuivasa vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

  • Tai Tuivasa
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 8-7
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Serghei Spivac.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai, Greg Hardy, and Cyril Asker. Beat Andrei Arlovski. 
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 7-6
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Shamil Gaziev, Chris Daukaus, Augusto Sakai, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Andrei Arlovski.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Rozenstruik has had 60 wrestling for awhile, but finally, in his last fight with Gaziev, he showed the tool improved to a 65.

Chris’ Pick: Tuivasa by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Tuivasa -125


Jingliang Li vs Carlos Prates

  • Jingliang Li
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 11-6
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Muslim Salikhov, Santiago Ponzinibbio, Dhiego Lima, Zak Ottow, and David Zawada.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Carlos Prates
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 19-6
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Charlie Radtke, Trevin Giles, an 8-0 striker, a 5-0 striker, and an 8-3 striker, and a well rounded 21-7 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Market thought that Prates’ striking was a 70 going into the Radtke fight, had him priced as a -205 favorite. And Prates got the nice KO, but striking was close to equal. Yes, Prates has 3 knockout wins in 3 UFC fights, but let’s not forget that Giles out struck Prates 67 to 37. I even think it’s possible that Prates striking could be as low as a 60.

Chris’ Pick: Prates by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Prates -135


Junior Tafa vs Valter Walker

  • Junior Tafa
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 5-2
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Parker Porter and a 6-1 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Valter Walker
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 11-1
  • Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision over an 8-3 striker.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Walker closed as a -230 favorite over Lukasz Brzeski. Looked good early, got take downs. But started to gas out half way through the fight. Also seems like Walker is one dimensional as Brzeski out struck him 55 to 23. Market thought Tafa had 65 striking and 55 wrestling, they thought Rogerio de Lima had 65 striking and 65 grappling, thus Rogerio de Lima came in as just a -220 favorite. But I had Rogerio de Lima pegged with 70 striking, so I wasn’t surprised when Rogerio de LIma out struck him 22 to 10.

Chris’ Pick: Walker by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Walker -225


Josh Culibao vs Ricardo Ramos

  • Josh Culibao
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 3-2-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Danny Silva.
  • Key Draws: Fought Charles Jourdain to a split draw.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Melsik Baghdasaryan. Knocked out a 6-2 striker. Split decision over Seung Woo Choi.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Ricardo Ramos
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 7-5
  • Key Wins: Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Bill Algeo and Journey Newsom. Knocked out Danny Chavez. Split decision win over Kyung Ho Kang. 
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: plus (70)

Culibao is now 6 fights into his UFC career. To me, he still hasn’t shown any improvement in his wrestling, still a one dimensional fighter.

Chris’ Pick: Ramos by 1st round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ramos -300


Casey O’Neill vs Luana Santos

  • Casey O’Neill
  • Age: 26
  • UFC Record: 4-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Antonina Shevchenko and Shana Dobson. Beat a 4-1 striker. Split decision over Roxanne Modafferi.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Luana Santos
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 8-1
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Mairya Agapova. Knocked out Juliana Miller. Beat Stephanie Egger and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Santos by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Santos -175


Jack Jenkins vs Herbert Burns

  • Jack Jenkins
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 12-2
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Beat Don Shainis. Split decision over Jamall Emmers.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Herbert Burns
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 3-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Landwehr. Submitted Evan Dunham, a 5-0 striker, a well rounded 9-1 fighter, and a 7-2 striker. Beat a 10-1 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Jenkins lost to Chepe Mariscal, but it was due to a fluke injury. Jenkins did out strike him 35 to 23.

Chris’ Pick: Jenkins by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jenkins -400


Tom Nolan vs Alex Reyes

  • Tom Nolan
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 7-1
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Victor Martinez, a 12-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Alex Reyes
  • Age: 37
  • Pro Record: 13-4
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 14-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Reyes returned from a long 6 year lay off against Charlie Campbell. A tall ask. Got blown out in the striking 35 to 12. Numbers show he might have 50 striking, but I think he’ll be a little bit better this time around.

Chris’ Pick: Nolan by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nolan -500


Kenan Song vs Ricky Glenn

  • Kenan Song
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 5-4
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Rolando Bedoya.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Ricky Glenn
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 4-5-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Grant Dawson to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquin Silva. Beat Gavin Tucker. Split decision wins over Dennis Bermudez and Phillipe Nover.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

There’s no way Kevin Jousset has 70 striking. Thus, when Jousset out strikes Kenan 121 to 55, I have no choice but to downgrade Kenan’s striking to a 55.

Chris’ Pick: Glenn by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Glenn -225


Jesus Aguilar vs Stewart Nicoll

  • Jesus Aguilar
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Edgar Chairez, an 11-1 striker, a well rounded 5-2 fighter, and a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Knocked out Shannon Ross. Beat a 6-2 grappler. Split decision over Mateus Mendonca.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Stewart Nicoll
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 8-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Going into Aguilar’s last fight against Mendonca, the market thought his striking was a 60. Never got to find out for sure because almost the whole fight was on the ground. Very possible I’m under rated Nicoll, could have 65 tools.

Chris’ Pick: Nicoll by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nicoll -250

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