Jared Cannonier vs Caio Borralho
- Jared Cannonier
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 7-3 at 185 lbs. 10-7 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Anderson Silva, and David Branch. Beat Marvin Vettori, Sean Strickland, and Kelvin Gastelum.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Caio Borralho
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig and an 8-3 grappler. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk and a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat Makhmud Muradov, Armen Petrosyan, Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, a 10-2 striker, and a 7-0 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
Borralho out struck Craig 35 to 22 and Craig got nowhere close to being able to take Borralho down. Enough for me to see he’s gotten better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Borralho by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Borralho -175
Angela Hill vs Tabatha Ricci
- Angela Hill
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 11-10
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Amanda Lemos, Michelle Waterson, and Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Submitted Luana Pinheiro. Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Denise Gomes, Emily Ducote, Loopy Godinez, Ashley Yoder, and Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Tabatha Ricci
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Loopy Godinez.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Penne. Beat Gillian Robertson, Polyana Viana, and a 12-4 striker. Split decision over Tecia Pennington.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
I’m not convinced that Hill, at 39 years of age, has improved her wrestling. The market had her priced as a -150 favorite over Pinheiro and she came in line with expectations. Striking between Ricci and Pennington was close to equal so it seems like Ricci’s striking has leveled up to a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Ricci by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ricci -250
Robert Valentin vs Ryan Loder
- Robert Valentin
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker, a 10-3 wrestler, and an 11-3 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Ryan Loder
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 grappler. Beat a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Valentin is an exciting fighter to watch with how hard he throws, but his track record so far is that if he can’t get you out early, he fades in the second half of the fight. Offensively his striking might be close to a 60, but he’s not defensively responsible and gets hit way too much. Either Valentin wins here early or Loder wins late.
Chris’ Pick: Valentin by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Valentin -125
Kaan Ofli vs Mairon Santos
- Kaan Ofli
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker. Beat a 5-2 wrestler and another 5-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Mairon Santos
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 13-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker and a 6-2 grappler. Beat a 7-1 wrestler and a well rounded 14-4 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I really thought Nathan Fletcher was one of the best prospects on TUF this year. And then Ofli blew me away with his ability to take a 65 grappler in Fletcher down, control him, and stay away from his submission game. Ofli did start to gas out towards the end of the 2nd round though.
Chris’ Pick: Ofli by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ofli -250
Michael Morales vs Neil Magny
- Michael Morales
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Adam Fugitt and Trevin Giles. Beat Jake Matthews, Max Griffin, and a 9-3 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Neil Magny
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 25-11
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mike Malott. Hector Lombard. Submitted Daniel Rodriguez. Beat Geoff Neal, Robbie Lawler, Anthony Rocco Martin, Jingliang Li and Tim Means. Split decision wins over Phil Rowe and Max Griffin.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The only reason Magny beat Malott is because Malott gassed out. Prior to that, the fight went how everyone thought it was going to go. Morales striking is a legit 70 grade as he out struck Matthews 80 to 54. But what’s interesting is that the strikes in the 3rd round were 23 to 22. So Morales did slow down. But I’m sure he’s aware of the danger of Magny in the second half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Morales by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Morales -300
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Gerald Meerschaert
- Edmen Shahbazyan
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out AJ Dobson, Dalcha Lungiambula, Brad Tavares, and Charles Byrd.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Gerald Meerschaert
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 11-9
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Andre Petroski, Kevin Holland, and Eryk Anders.
- Key Wins: Submitted Bryan Barberena, Bruno Silva, Dustin Stoltzfus, Makhmud Muradov, Bartosz Fabinski, Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Shahbazyan by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Shahbazyan -300
Dennis Buzukja vs Francis Marshall
- Dennis Buzukja
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Connor Matthews.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Francis Marshall
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to William Gomis.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcelo Rojo. Submitted a 4-0 striker. Beat a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Isaac Dulgarian has a very legit 70 grade wrestling tool. But it’s not a 75 yet. Thus, the way Dulgarian dominated Marshall on the ground, I have to downgrade his grappling to a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Marshall by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Marshall -175
Zachary Reese vs Jose Medina
- Zachary Reese
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Marquez. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jose Medina
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision over a 4-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Medina is a unique fighter in that he lost on the Contender, but showed so much heart that he was signed to the UFC. He also lacked proper training and diet, so projection wise, very good chance he shows up with a 60 tool. This fight is all about the fact that Reese has never fought past the 1st round, only fought past 2 minutes once. And Medina’s plus durability. Very legit chance Reese gasses himself out to finish Medina.
Chris’ Pick: Reese by 1st round round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Reese -300
Slava Borshchev vs James Llontop
- Slava Borshchev
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Draws: Fought Nazim Sadykhov to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Maheshate. Dakota Bush and a 7-0 striker. Beat a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- James Llontop
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Malik Lewis and a well rounded 8-1-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I really don’t know what to think of Borshchev’s loss to Chase Hooper. I know Nazim Sadykhov is good. He submitted Terrance McKinney. And Borshchev looked so impressive against Sadykhov, getting up after being taken down and out striking Sadykhov 141 to 66.
Chris’ Pick: Borshchev by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Borshchev -200
Josiane Nunes vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti
- Josiane Nunes
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bea Malecki, a 6-1 striker, a 3-0 grappler. Beat Zarah Fairn and Ramona Pascual.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jacqueline Cavalcanti
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat Zarah Fairn, Nora Cornolle and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I had both Nunes and Chelsea Chandler with 60 striking grades. They traded strikes in their fight. Close to equal. But then Chandler takes on Yana Santos and I know for sure Santos has 70 striking. And Santos only out struck Chandler by a bit. Not a landslide. Therefore, it’s more likely Chandler has 65 striking and thus Nunes has 65 striking. I was pretty confident Zarah Fairn had 65 striking. The market thought her striking was a 60 and the market is probably right. But wow, Cavalcanti proved to be way, way better than I thought. Out struck Fairn 116 to 39. Possible Cavalcanti’s wrestling could be a 65, but I haven’t seen enough of her yet.
Chris’ Pick: Cavalcanti by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cavalcanti -300
Cong Wang vs Victoria Leonardo
- Cong Wang
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 5-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-2 striker. Beat Wu Yanan and a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Victoria Leonardo
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0-1 striker. Beat Mandy Bohm and a 4-0 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I feel bad for Leonardo. She goes from fighting Natalia Silva now to Cong.
Chris’ Pick: Cong by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cong -300