Petr Yan vs Deiveson Figueredo
- Petr Yan
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Sean O’Malley and Aljamain Sterling.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Douglas Silva de Andrade and Urijah Faber. Beat Song Yadong, Cory Sandhagen, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Deiveson Figueiredo
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 3-0 at 135 lbs. 13-2-1 overall.
- Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Cody Garbrandt, Alex Perez, and Tim Elliott. Beat Marlon Vera, Rob Font, Moreno, and Alex Pantoja.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Merab Dvalishvili was clearly able to out wrestle Yan. But then a year later, Yan returns against Yadong and shows improved 75 wrestling. And yes, Figueiredo showed off what appeared to be 75 striking in his bantamweight debut with Font. But then Garbrandt out struck Figueiredo 16 to 8. Stirke 1. Then Figueiredo’s striking with Vera is close to equal. Strike 2 and no need for strike 3. Have to downgrade Figueiredo’s striking to a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Figueiredo by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Figueiredo -175
Yan Xiaonan vs Tabatha Ricci
- Yan Xiaonan
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marina Rodriguez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jessica Andrade. Beat Claudia Gadelha, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Angela Hill. Majority decision over MacKenzie Dern.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Tabatha Ricci
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Loopy Godinez.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Penne. Beat Angela Hill, Gillian Robertson, Polyana Viana, and a 12-4 striker. Split decision over Tecia Pennington.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Because Ricci’s striking with Hill was close to equal, I think it’s possible Ricci’s striking could be as low as a 65. After Xiaonan’s fight with Weili, her 75 striking is proven.
Chris’ Pick: Xiaonan by decision.
What odds the favorite should be at: Xiaonan -300
Song Kenan vs Muslim Salikhov
- Song Kenan
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Ricky Glenn and Rolando Bedoya.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Muslim Salikhov
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Alex Garcia.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Fialho, Nordine Taleb, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Francisco Trinaldo, Laureano Staropoli, and an 8-1 wrestler. Split decision wins over Santiago Ponzinibbio and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Ponzinibbio closed as a -180 favorite over Salikhov. Close to the right price I think. But Salikhov out performed the market as he out struck Ponzinibbio 45 to 40. Has Salikhov gotten better at 40 years of age? I doubt it. Most plausible is that Ponzinbbio, at 37 years of age, is starting to regress.
Chris’ Pick: Salikhov by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Salikhov -375
Wang Cong vs Gabriella Fernandes
- Cong Wang
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Submitted a 5-2 striker. Beat Wu Yanan and a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Gabriella Fernandes
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 striker. Beat a 3-0 striker. Split decision over Carli Judice.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Cong by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cong -600
Volkan Oezdemir vs Carlos Ulberg
- Volkan Oezdemir
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dominick Reyes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Johnny Walker, Ilir Latifi, Misha Cirkunov, and Jimi Manuwa. Submitted Bogdan Guskov. Beat Paul Craig. Split decision win over Aleksandar Rakic and Ovince St. Preux.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Carlos Ulberg
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alonzo Menifield, Ihor Potieria, Nicolae Negumereanu, Tafon Nchukwi, an 8-2 striker, and a 5-1 grappler. Submitted Da Woon Jung.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Walker is only 32 years old and 13 fights into his UFC career. Has he really started to regress? I doubt it. And I know 100% for sure his striking is a 70. And although part of me hesitates to upgrade Oezdemir’s striking to a 75, I can’t ignore the numbers where Oezdemir out struck Walker 33 to 15.
Chris’ Pick: Oezdemir by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Oezdemir -250
Zhang Mingyang vs Ozzy Diaz
- Zhang Mingyang
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 17-6
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brendson Ribeiro, a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Submitted a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Ozzy DIaz
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-2 striker. Knocked out Bevon Lewis and a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Mingyang by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mingyang -200
Baergeng Jieleyisi vs Suyoung Yu
- Baergeng Jieleyisi
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 18-5
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 12-3 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Suuoung Yu
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 19-5 fighter. Split decision over Zhawupasi Daermisi.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Yu by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Yu -250
Kiru Sahota vs Donghun Choi
- Kiru Sahota
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter and a 6-1 grappler. Split decision over a well rounded 16-4 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Donghun Choi
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 wrestler. Beat a 3-0 striker. Split decision wins over Niushiyue Ji and a well rounded 10-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Sahota by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Sahota -250
Shi Ming vs Feng Xiaocan
- Ming Shi
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 16-5
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 7-3 grappler, a 10-3 striker and a well rounded 14-3 fighter. Split decision over Huaxiong Dong.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Feng Xiaocan
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Feier Huang and a 7-3 grappler. Submitted Miki Motono. Beat a 14-5 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Xiaocan out struck Motono 58 to 19 solidifying she has a legit 65 striking tool.
Chris’ Pick: Xiaocan by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Xiaocan -300
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel vs Carlos Hernandez
- Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Split decision over a 9-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Carlos Hernandez
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: Beat Denys Bondar and a 3-1 striker. Split decision wins over Victor Altamirano and Daniel Barez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Tumendemberel out struck Peter Danesoe 24 to 7, but the gap was wide because Tumendemberel hurt him early, poured on strikes before submitting him. It’s possible that Tumendemberel’s striking leveled up to a 65, but I want to see more. Rei Tsuruya closed as a big time -475 favorite against Hernandez but Hernandez showed big time improvement. His wrestling in particular took a massive step forward as he was able to hold his own against Tsuruya. The 65 striking grade does have some projection baked in, but for what it’s worth, he did out strike Tsuruya 8 to 2.
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Hernandez -225
Lone’er Kavanagh vs Jose Ochoa
- Lone’er Kavanagh
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 striker and a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat a 6-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jose Ochoa
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Ochoa by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ochoa -225
Xiao Long vs Quang Le
- Xiao Long
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 26-8
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chang Ho Lee.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over a 10-3 grappler. Majority decision over a 13-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Quang Le
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Despite losing, Le’s fight with Chris Gutierrez really impressed me. In particular his wrestling, which is close to a 70 tool.
Chris’ Pick: Le by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Le -325
Maheshate vs Nikolas Motta
- Maheshate
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Steve Garcia. Beat a 7-0 striker. Split decision over Gabriel Benitez.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Nikolas Motta
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Nolan, Cameron VanCamp, Joe Solecki, and a 6-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 striker and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Not sure how Maheshate beat Benitez as Benitez out struck him 120 to 93. Judges got that one wrong. I’m confident Motta’s wrestling is a 60. And he for sure showed 60 striking in his fight with Trey Ogden. But after that with Nolan, the striking was close to equal, showing 65 striking, but in a small sample, Nolan out landing him 11 to 8. So it’s possible the striking could be a 60 still, but I think the 65 grade is more likely.
Chris’ Pick: Motta by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Motta -400