Aspinall vs Gane, Dern vs Jandiroba, Nurmagomedov vs Bautista Fight Picks – UFC 321 – October 25, 2025

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane

• Tom Aspinall
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 8-1
• Key Wins: Submitted Andrei Arlovski. Knocked out Curtis Blaydes, Sergei Pavlovich, Marcin Tybura, Serghei Spivac, Jake Collier, and a 6-2 wrestler.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus plus (75)
• Grappling: near plus plus (75)

• Ciryl Gane
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 10-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Sergei Spivac, Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Alexander Volkov, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Tanner Boser. Split decision win over Alexander Volkov.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Aspinall by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Aspinall -225

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Mackenzie Dern vs Virna Jandiroba

• Mackenzie Dern
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 10-4
• Key Wins: Submitted Amanda Ribas, Nina Nunes, Randa Markos, and Hannah Cifers. Beat Loopy Godinez, Angela Hill, and Virna Jandiroba. Split decision wins over Tecia Torres and Ashley Yoder.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Grappling: near plus plus (75)

• Virna Jandiroba
• Age: 37
• UFC Record: 8-3
• Key Wins: Submitted Amanda Lemos, Felice Herrig, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a 10-2 striker. Beat Xiaonan Yan, Loopy Godinez, Marina Rodriguez, and Angela Hill. Split decision wins over Mizuki Inoue and a 7-2 grappler.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: fringe average (45)
• Grappling: near plus plus (75)

Chris’ Pick: Dern by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dern -225

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Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista

• Umar Nurmagomedov
• Age: 29
• UFC Record: 6-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out Raoni Barcelos. Submitted Brian Kelleher and Sergey Morozov. Beat Cory Sandhagen, Bekzat Almakhan, Nathan Maness, a 12-0-1 grappler, and a 5-0 grappler. 
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus plus (75)

• Mario Bautista
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 10-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Miles Johns. Submitted Guido Cannetti, Benito Lopez, and Brian Kelleher. Beat Patchy Mix, Ricky Simon, Da’Mon Blackshear, a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 7-1-2 wrestler. Split decision over Jose Aldo.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
• Grappling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Nurmagomedov by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nurmagomedov -225

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Jailton Almeida vs Alexander Volkov

• Jailton Almeida
• Age: 34
• UFC Record: 9-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out Sergei Spivac, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Danilo Marques. Submitted Alexandr Romanov, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Anton Turkalj, Parker Porter, a 9-0 wrestler, and a 19-4 wrestler. Beat Derrick Lewis.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Grappling: near plus plus (75)

• Alexander Volkov
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 12-4
• Key Wins: Knocked out Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alistair Overeem, Walt Harris, and Fabricio Werdum. Submitted Tai Tuivasa. Beat Sergei Pavlovich, Marcin Tybura, and Greg Hardy.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus plus (75)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 1st round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Almeida -135

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Aleksandar Rakic vs Azamat Murzakanov

• Aleksandar Rakic
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 6-4
• Key Wins: Knocked out Devin Clark and Jimi Manuwa. Beat Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: near plus plus (75)

• Azamat Murzakanov
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 6-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Brendson Ribeiro, Alonzo Menifield, Devin Clark, Tafon Nchukwi, Andre Muniz, Matheus Scheffel, and a 13-3 striker.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Rakic’s striking is right on the bubble between a 70 and a 75 but currently, it might be closer to a 70.

Chris’ Pick: Rakic by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rakic -225

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Nasrat Haqparast vs Quillan Salkilld

• Nasrat Haqparast  
• Age: 30
• UFC Record: 10-4
• Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Held on short notice.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Mullarkey and Joaquim Silva. Beat Landon Quinones, John Makdessi, Rafa Garcia, and Marc Diakiese. Split decision wins over Esteban Ribovics and Jared Gordon.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Quillan Salkilld
• Age: 25
• Pro Record: 9-1
• UFC Record: 3-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Anshul Jubli, a 3-1 grappler, and a 6-1 striker. Submitted a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat Yanal Ashmouz and a 9-1 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Salkilld by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Salkilld -300

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Ikram Aliskerov vs Jun Yong Park

• Ikram Aliskerov
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 4-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Muniz, Warlley Alves, Phil Hawes, and a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Submitted Mario Sousa, Dennis Tiuliulin, and an 11-3 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: plus (70)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

• Jun Yong Park
• Age: 34
• UFC Record: 9-3
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andre Muniz. 
• Key Wins: Submitted Albert Duraev, Dennis Tiuliulin, and Joseph Holmes. Beat Ismail Naurdiev, Marc-Andre Barriault, and a 18-6 striker. Majority decision over Tafon Nchukwi. Split decision wins over Brad Tavares and Eryk Anders.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

There’s no way I can grade Park’s striking after Naurdiev out struck him 67 to 38.

Chris’ Pick: Aliskerov by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Aliskerov -300

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Mateusz Rebecki vs Ludovit Klein

• Mateusz Rebecki
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 5-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Loik Radzhabov, a well rounded 18-5 fighter, a 8-1 striker, a 12-1 striker, a 12-2 grappler, a 12-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Submitted Roosevelt Roberts, a 12-2 striker. Beat Nick Fiore and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision over Myktybek Orolbai.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

• Ludovit Klein
• Age: 30
• UFC Record: 7-3-1
• Key Draws: Fought Jai Herbert to a majority draw.
• Key Wins: Knocked out AJ Cunningham, Shane Young, a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Roosevelt Roberts, Thiago Moises, Ignacio Bahamondes, Mason Jones, and an 11-2 striker. Split decision over Devonte Smith.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Grappling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Rebecki by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rebecki -135

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Valter Walker vs Louie Sutherland

• Valter Walker
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 14-1
• UFC Record: 3-1
• Key Wins: Submitted Kennedy Nzechukwu, Don’Tale Mayes, and Junior Tafa. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision over an 8-3 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

• Louie Sutherland
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 10-3
• Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Walker is interesting because his last two heel hook submissions have come in in about a minute, so with how fast he’s getting these heel hooks, it’s very possible his grappling could be a 70 now. 

Chris’ Pick: Walker by 1st round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Walker -135

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Jose Miguel Delgado vs Nathaniel Wood

• Jose Miguel Delgado
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 10-1
• UFC Record: 3-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Hyder Amil, Connor Matthews, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, a well rounded 4-1 fighter, and a 7-2 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Nathaniel Wood
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 9-3
• Key Wins: Submitted Johnny Eduardo and Jose Quinonez, Beat Morgan Charriere, Daniel Pineda, Andre Fili, Charles Jourdain, and Charles Rosa.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

Wood out struck Charriere 62 to 37 proving once and for all that Wood indeed does have 70 striking.

Chris’ Pick: Wood by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Wood -225

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Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Chris Barnett

• Hamdy Abdelwahab
• Age: 32
• Pro Record: 7-1
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Split decision over Jamal Pogues.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Chris Barnett
• Age: 39
• UFC Record: 2-3
• Key Losses: Knocked out by a 3-3 striker. Lost to a 14-8 striker. Split decision loss to an 8-4 wrestler.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Jake Collier and a well rounded 22-5 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Abdelwahab by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Abdelwahab -125

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Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo

• Azat Maksum
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 17-2
• UFC Record: 1-2
• Key Wins: Submitted a 8-0 striker, a well rounded 4-0 fighter and a 5-0 grappler. Knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 12-3 striker. Beat a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over Tyson Nam.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

• Mitch Raposo
• Age: 26
• Pro Record: 9-3
• UFC Record: 0-3
• Key Losses: Split decision losses to Sumudaerji and Andre Lima.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Maksum by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Maksum -135

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Jaqueline Amorim vs Mizuki

• Jaqueline Amorim
• Age: 30
• UFC Record: 4-1
• Key Wins: Submitted Polyana Viana, Vanessa Demopoulos, and Cory McKenna. Knocked out Montserrat Conejo.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: plus (70)

• Mizuki
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 15-6
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Beat Hannah Goldy and Viviane Pereira. Split decision over Yanan Wu.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Mizuki might be the most inactive fighter in all of the UFC. This is her first fight in 2 years and only her second fight in 5 years.

Chris’ Pick: Amorim by 2nd round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Amorim -350