Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane
- Francis Ngannou
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 11-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Stipe Miocic, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Curtis Bladyes (twice), Alistair Overeem, Cain Velasquez, and Junior dos Santos.
- Tools: Ngannou has plus plus striking (80) and plus wrestling (70).
- Ciryl Gane
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Derrick Lewis and Junior dos Santos. Beat Alexander Volkov, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Tanner Boser.
- Tools: Gane has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
Right from the jump, this fight being a priced as a pick em is just crazy. Yes, Gane looked amazing against Derrick Lewis. But that was a weird fight. Let’s look at Gane’s fight with Volkov. Much better way to gague his skills. This argument that Gane can’t be hit, I don’t buy it. Volkov hit Gane plenty. Hit Gane over 100 times. Gane barely out struck Volkov. Gane also tried to take Volkov down 4 times, couldn’t do it. Volkov has 65 wrestling. The only pathway I see for Gane to win here is if Ngannou gasses out and Gane takes over in the 2nd half of the fight. But guys, Stipe Miocic has bonafide 75 striking. Ngannou out struck him. Landed more. At worst, Ngannou’s striking is a 75 and the striking is close for a bit. But Miocic was the first opponent in Ngannou’s last 5 fights to make it past 2 minutes. And he only lasted 52 seconds into the 2nd. Gane’s not going to be able to take Ngannou down. I just think Ngannou at -105 is a real bargain and I’m not sure when he’ll be this cheap again.
Chris’ Pick: Ngannou by 2nd round knockout.
Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo
- Brandon Moreno
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 7-2-2
- Key Draws: Fought Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo to draws.
- Key Wins: Submitted Deiveson Figueiredo, Louis Smolka, and Dustin Ortiz. Knocked out Brandon Royval. Beat Kai Kara-France. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Tools: Moreno has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has near plus plus grappling (75).
- Deiveson Figueiredo
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Alex Perez and Tim Elliott. Beat Alex Pantoja.
- Tools: Figueiredo has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
Moreno’s upset over Figueiredo was one of last year’s most surprising outcomes. And not because Moreno took his skills to another level. We saw shades of that in the second half of their first fight. It was surprising because of the massive drop off in Figueiredo’s tools. The first fight, the striking was pretty close to even. The second fight, it wasn’t close. Distance strikes were 36 to 14 Moreno. That’s a massive difference. Figueiredo was taking the Derrick Lewis approach of throwing only power shots, no combinations. He seemed to go all in in the 2nd round when he took Moreno down, but Moreno got back up and Figueiredo was done. His drop off really reminds me of Marlon Moraes after he got a title shot and lost to Henry Cejudo. Figueiredo just had no confidence. And maybe you could say, oh, Figueiredo had a bad weight cut, but Moreno dominated from the very beginning of the fight. I have to downgrade Figueiredo’s tools a little bit based on what happened. And I think pricing Moreno at -175 is fair. I’d price him at -200. Yes, Figueiredo still has more power and could knock Moreno out. But I just the odds of that happening are low. Very likely Moreno drains the gas tank of Figueiredo and takes over later in the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Moreno by 4th round submission.
Michel Pereira vs Andre Fialho
- Michel Pereira
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: DQ loss to Diego Sanchez. Lost to Tristan Connelly.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Danny Roberts. Submitted an 8-2 striker. Beat Niko Price and Khaos Williams.
- Tools: Pereira has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Andre Fialho
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 14-3
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 11-3 fighter, a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and another well rounded 7-1 fighter. Majority decision over a 10-4 grappler.
- Tools: Fialho has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Normally when a fighters pulls out of a fight and the UFC finds a replacement opponent, you’ll find me betting the favorite. Because the number of replacement opponents that win on short notice are very few. But Fialho could very well be an exception. He’s a legit prospect and it’s possible his striking could be a 65. His knockouts over UFC vets James Vick and Stefan Sekulic were vicious. Meanwhile, Pereira’s made great strides. Has transformed himself from a blitzing fighter going for the early finish to someone who tries to win on volume and touch touch. Pereira should win. He’ll land more strikes. But Fialho’s power is the wild card and he’s capable of knocking Pereira out. Fialho will be a live underdog.
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by decision.
Cody Stamann vs Said Nurmagomedov
- Cody Stamann
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Yadong Song to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Alejandro Perez and Brian Kelleher. Split decision wins over Bryan Caraway and Tom Duquesnoy.
- Tools: Stamann has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Said Nurmagomedov
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricardo Ramos and Mark Striegl. Beat a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a 16-3 grappler. Split decision over Justin Scoggins.
- Tools: Nurmagomedov has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
Nurmagomedov hasn’t been that active. He’s only had 51 seconds of cage time in the last 2 years. But his close loss to Raoni Barcelos has certainly aged well. And after taking a closer look at Nurmagomedov, I’m upgrading his striking and wrestling to 65s. And based on how good Barcelos has turned out to be and how close that fight was, Said’s striking could be a 70. And he might really be starting to unlock some serious power as he has 14 pro wins, 4 of them by KO. 2 knockout wins in his last 3 fights. With Stamann, his striking is tricky to grade. 4 fights ago, he took on Yadong Song. And the striking was close to equal. Looks like 65 striking. 3 fights ago, he took on Kelleher. Out struck him. Looks like 65 striking. 2 fights ago, he took on Jimmie Rivera and Rivera out struck him. And I know Rivera has no better than 65 striking. It’s not like he got better all of a sudden because his next fight was a close loss to 65 striker Pedro Munhoz. Last fight, Stamann was out struck by Merab Dvalishvili. And with Merab, I thought his striking was more of a 60. I’ll give him credit for a 65, but there’s no way it’s a 70. So based on the data, I have to grade Stamann’s striking a 60. And this is the type of fight I love to bet. There’s a decent margin in the striking as I think Nurmagomedov’s striking could be a 70 now. Huge power advantage. But the biggest thing is there’s really not a path for Stamann to pull off a fluky upset. He lacks KO power. He’s not a grappler. For Stamann to win, he’d have to come in to this fight way better than last time out or something really fluky happens. And Nurmagomedov being priced at -200 is not that steep.
Chris’ Pick: Nurmagomedov by 2nd round knockout.
Trevin Giles vs Michael Morales
- Trevin Giles
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bevon Lewis, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 grappler. Submitted a 9-2 striker. Beat Roman Dolidze. Split decision over Ryan Spann.
- Tools: Giles has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Michael Morales
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 12-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 9-3 striker.
- Tools: Morales has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
Giles and Morales both I think could very well have 60 striking. So I expect the fight to be close on the feet. Morales has the best tool in this fight, that’s his 60 wrestling. He hadn’t really used it that much before stepping on to The Contender. 9 of his 12 wins by KO. Crazy young. 21 years old. Championship level upside. Long frame for the weight class. Morales at -145 is priced right, mixing in a few take downs should help him win.
Chris’ Pick: Morales by decision.
Raoni Barcelos vs Victor Henry
- Raoni Barcelos
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Timur Valiev.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chris Guttierez. Beat Khalid Taha and Said Nurmagomedov.
- Tools: Barcelos has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Victor Henry
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 21-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anderson dos Santos. Submitted a well rounded 11-2 fighter, an 18-3 wrestler and a 10-2-1 wrestler. Beat a 6-0 wrestler, a 4-0 striker, and a 12-4 wrestler. Split decision over Kyler Phillips.
- Tools: Henry has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
Finding a short notice replacement for Barcelos that might have a chance is certainly a tall order. But I think the UFC did as good of a job as they could with bringing in a seasoned vet like Henry. 26 pro fights. Great record. Lots of quality wins. The biggest one being a split decision over potential contender Phillips. The price on Barcelos is a tad higher than I’d like at -360, but it just shows the oddsmakers are confident that Barcelos striking is better. There’s not a lot of recent footage on Henry, but the odds of anyone coming into the UFC and debuting with 65 striking is slim. Very, very few guys debut with their striking at that high of a level.
Chris’ Pick: Barcelos by 2nd round knockout.
Pete Rodriguez vs Jack Della Maddalena
- Pete Rodriguez
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 4-0
- Tools: Rodriguez has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
- Jack Della Maddalena
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Della Maddalena has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s above average (55).
Della Maddalena fought Ange Loosa on The Contender and the fight was priced as a pick em. Due to both being well rounded with 55 tools across the board. But the fight turned out to not be close. The grappling was close to equal. But Della Maddalena out classed Loosa on the feet, out striking him by a nearly 2 to 1 clip. The data says to grade Della Maddalena’s striking a 65. I’ve done it. But I’m hesitant and could be wrong because it’s very rare that fighters show up to the UFC with a tool as high as a 65 grade. Which means it could be a 60. Warlley Alves gets hurt and in steps a short notice replacement. And on the surface, Rodriguez looks like a typical, best the UFC could do short notice replacement. 4-0 pro record. But where things get interesting is you’ll notice that all 4 of Rodriguez’s wins are by 1st round KO. Longest one lasted 2 and a half minutes. And I watched it, it only went that long because Rodriguez took his opponent down for a bit. I dug deeper and it turns out Rodriguez also has a 8-2 amateur record. 7 of his 8 wins are by 1st round KO. The 8th win was a KO 50 seconds into the 2nd. But the caveat to all this is that all 4 of his pro wins have been against fighters just starting their pro careers. 1-1 records, 0-2 type records. So to me, this fight is a giant unknown and I can’t bet on it. Because of the lack of quality competition Rodriguez has gone against, I can’t say I’m confident in his 60 striking grade. It could be a 55. It could be a 65. But after Saturday we’ll get a good idea. I will say this though, some books have opened Della Maddalena at -300. That’s so crazy. Tons of value on Rodriguez at +250 with the one punch KO power he’s shown.
Chris’ Pick: Della Maddalena by 2nd round knockout.
Saimon Oliveira vs Tony Gravely
- Saimon Oliveira
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 18-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 12-2 wrestler. Split decision win over a well rounded 13-5 fighter.
- Tools: Oliveira has average striking (50) and above average grappling (60).
- Tony Gravely
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 15-5 fighter, an 8-0 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 7-2 wrestler. Split decision over Geraldo de Freitas.
- Tools: Gravely has striking that’s a little above average (55) and near plus wrestling (65).
I could be wrong on Gravely’s wrestling. I might be grading it too high. Might be a 60. But I am confident in Gravely’s striking being a 55. Question is whether Oliveira’s striking is a 50. There’s not too much footage of him outside The Contender. I had his Contender opponent Jose Alday at 50 striking too and it was close to equal with Oliveira. But it’s not hard to project to see Gravely having way better cardio. Oliveira likes to go for big, power strikes, which consume a lot of energy. I see Gravely clinching Oliveira against the fence. Tiring him out and Gravely should win at least the last 2 rounds.
Chris’ Pick: Gravely by decision.
Matt Frevola vs Genaro Valdez
- Matt Frevola
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-3-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes.
- Key Draws: Fought Lando Vannata to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Jalin Turner. Split decision win over Luis Pena.
- Tools: Frevola has striking that’s a little above average that’s paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Genaro Valdez
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter and an 8-3 wrestler.
- Tools: Valdez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Valdez is an excellent case study on the risks of betting on prospects new to the UFC. When Valdez fought Patrik White on the Contender, Valdez ballooned up to -800. Massive favorite due to the public thinking Valdez would easily be able to take White down. That’s what I thought too. But shockingly, White was able to get back up, time and time again. Valdez eventually gave up taking him down and knocked him out, but the striking on the feet was close. There were some nervous times. So what exactly happened in that fight? Was White’s wrestling under rated? Or was Valdez’s wrestling over rated? Looking at the line for this fight, Frevola clocks in as a -200 favorite. So that means the betting public thinks Frevola can get some take Valdez down and win on the ground. But I disagree with that. I watched Valdez’s last fight before the Contender. The guy he fought was a decent prospect, average 50 wrestling. I saw Valdez dominate the whole fight, especially in the wrestling. I think it was White’s wrestling that was under rated. Valdez’s wrestling is probably a 60 or 55 at worst. I think the fight is decided on the feet where Valdez has more power and Frevola is fresh off a 17 second knockout. So there’s definitely some value on Valdez at +160.
Chris’ Pick: Valdez by 1st round knockout.
Vanessa Demopoulos vs Silvana Juarez
- Vanessa Demopoulos
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 6-4
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Sam Hughes. Knocked out a 5-2 striker.
- Tools: Demopoulos has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Silvana Juarez
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 striker.
- Tools: Juarez has striking that’s a little above average (55) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Coin flip fight. I agree on how they’re priced as a pick em currently. I’m confident Demopoulos has 55 grappling and that Juarez has 55 wrestling. The striking is where things get interesting. Juarez has 6 knockouts and 8 total finishes inside 10 wins. That’s a lot for a female strawweight. Juarez’s striking could be a 60, with real 60 power, but I have her at a 55 for now. With Demopoulos, in watching her fight Aldrich, my eyes told me her striking was a 55. But. Aldrich is a flyweight and Demopoulos took the fight on short notice and is a strawweight. Aldrich was much bigger in the fight. And if you look at the data, the striking on the feet was close. So I’m not super confident, but have Demopoulos as a 60 striker for now. I see Demopoulos having better cardio, landing more. Has the best chance of winning the fight, but Juarez is very capable of knocking her out.
Chris’ Pick: Demopoulos by split decision.
Kay Hansen vs Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Kay Hansen
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 7-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Jihn Yu Frey and 4-1 striker. Knocked out an 8-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
- Tools: Hansen has average striking (50) and above average grappling (60).
- Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 4-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Beat an 8-2 striker.
- Tools: Jasudavicius has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
This is the best value bet on the card. When Jasudavicius went into her Contender fight with Julia Polastri, the betting line was close to a pick em. But there ended up being a big gap between the two fighters in wrestling. Polastri’s wrestling being more like a 50 and Jasudavicius’ being a 60. And that wrestling will really come in handy against an elite wrestling prospect in Hansen. I rewatched Hansen vs Cory Mckenna, I still think Hansen won that fight, despite the judges giving it to McKenna. This is a really tough matchup for Hansen, coming off a loss and now having to fight a grown woman in Jasudavicius who’s 11 years older than her. And yeah, she beat a grown woman in Frey, but she had better wrestling. Won’t be able to take Jasudavicius down. On the feet, Jasudavicius’ reach advantage will be too much. So the thing that’s crazy is Hansen is priced as a -250 favorite. That’s nuts. I would’ve had Jasudavicius as the favorite at -225. Basically, the market thinks Hansen can win with her wrestling. That her wrestling is more like a 65 and Jasudavicius’ wrestling is a 55. But there’s no way. It’s even possible Jasudavicius’ wrestling could be a 65 after how she dominated Polastri there.
Chris’ Pick: Jasudavicius by decision.