Jessica Andrade vs Amanda Lemos
- Jessica Andrade
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-2 at 115 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cynthia Calvillo, Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Joanne Calderwood. Beat Claudia Gadelha and Tecia Torres.
- Tools: Andrade has plus striking (70) and plus wrestling (70).
- Amanda Lemos
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Montserrat Ruiz and Livinha Souza. Submitted Miranda Granger. Beat Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Angela Hill.
- Tools: Lemos has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
It happens with prospects. When there’s not much sample size to go off of, sometimes your evaluation of the fighter can be off. I was supremely confident Lemos was going to steamroll Hill. I had Lemos’ striking as a 70. And Lemos looked the part in the 1st round. But really slowed down in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Let’s look at Lemos’ other 4 wins before the Hill fight. 3 of her 4 wins were 1st round finishes. There you go. She’s been cheating a little bit, what I mean is, blitzing too much in the 1st round. Looks great when you get the finish, but when you don’t, you get the Hill fight. Which had Lemos out strike Hill 36 to 33 in significant distance strikes. So until I see her become more efficient, I have to downgrade Lemos’ striking to a 65. Which is really bad for her chances against Andrade. Jessica moves back down to 115 lbs. Lemos also showed that either A) her wrestling is indeed a 60 or B) both Hill and Lemos have elevated their wrestling to 65s. Lemos better hope her wrestling is a 65 because if it isn’t, Andrade will be able to take her down and win the fight there. Andrade even showed she could take down a 70 wrestler in Chookagian. Look, I really like Lemos as a prospect. But she barely eked out a win over Hill. And Andrade is a top #3 fighter in the whole weight class. This is too much, too soon for Lemos.
Chris’ Pick: Andrade by 3rd round knockout.
What I think the line should be: Andrade -425
Clay Guida vs Claudio Puelles
- Clay Guida
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 17-14
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Bobby Green.
- Key Wins: Beat Michael Johnson. Split decision over Mark O. Madsen.
- Tools: Guida has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Claudio Puelles
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-1 striker. Beat Jordan Leavitt.
- Tools: Puelles has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Despite the spectacular submission win over Santos, there really isn’t too much to take away from a skills stand point with Guida. He won that fight, pure and simple, because Santos emptied the gas tank, trying to knock Guida out in the 1st. I didn’t see any improvement in his tools. Guida was just able to survive and because of that he won. So all Pulles has to do to win here is not gas out. Which isn’t automatic because Puelles went with a wrestling heavy game plan over Greutzemacher and was gassed out by the 3rd round. But the striking between the two was close to equal, which means I’m now grading Puelles’ striking as a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Puelles by decision.
What I think the line should be: Puelles -250
Maycee Barber vs Montana de la Rosa
- Maycee Barber
- Age: 23
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. JJ Aldrich. and Gillian Robertson. Split decision over Miranda Maverick.
- Tools: Barber has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Montana de la Rosa
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 6-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Mayra Bueno Silva to a majority draw,
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ariane Lipski. Submitted Nadia Kassem. Beat Mara Romero Borella.
- Tools: De la Rosa has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has near plus grappling (65).
De la Rosa has improved her striking. It’s a 60 now, albeit with 50 power. Not a one dimensional grappler anymore. But Barber is the worst style matchup for her. Grappling should be equal and cancelled out. Likely a stand up fight. And in Barber’s last couple fights with Alexa Grasso and Maverick, she’s proven to have 65 striking. But it’s the power advantage Barber has that really stands out to me.
Chris’ Pick: Barber by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the line should be: Barber -325
Chase Sherman vs Alexandr Romanov
- Chase Sherman
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-8
- Key Losses: Lost to Justin Ledet.
- Key Wins: Beat Damian Grabowski.
- Tools: Sherman has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Alexandr Romanov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 15-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out Jared Vanderaa and a well rounded 20-5 fighter. Split decision over Juan Espino.
- Tools: Romanov has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65).
Despite the 3-8 UFC record, Sherman has some tools. He does have 65 striking and power. He showed it off in his last fight against 65 striker Jake Collier. Before the Collier fight, he showed 60 wrestling. Then in the Collier fight, he was taken down and got caught in a choke a couple minutes in. But sometimes submissions happen, like KOs. On the surface, it looks like Sherman’s wrestling might be a 55, but with all the take down defense I’ve seen from him in the past, I think it’s closer to a 60. Sherman’s taking this fight on a little over a week’s notice. But that’s not as problematic for heavyweights. And Romanov’s cardio isn’t great either. Seems like he only has enough gas to wrestle for the first half of the fight. But look, the lines that have opened are insane. Romanov -1400 and Sherman coming back at +700. Just bananas. Look, Romanov is definitely more likely to win. He could overwhelm Sherman in the 1st round the same way that Collier did. But the oddsmakers think that Romanov has 70 grappling and I disagree. In my opinion it’s more like a 65. Therefore, I think Sherman has maybe a 45% chance of winning and I can’t ignore the +700.
Chris’ Pick: Sherman by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the line should be: Romanov -200
Lando Vannata vs Charles Jourdain
- Lando Vannata
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-5-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Bobby Green, Drakkar Klose, and Marc Diakiese.
- Key Draws: Fought Matt Frevola and Bobby Green to draws.Key Wins: Knocked out John Makdessi. Beat Yancy Medeiros. Split decision over Mike Grundy.
- Tools: Vannata has above average striking (60). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Charles Jourdain
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 3-3-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Desmond Green.
- Key Draws: Split draw to an 8-1 strike
- Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted a 9-3 striker. Beat Andre Ewell.
- Tools: Jourdain has near plus striking (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Vannata’s striking is tricky to figure out. He hasn’t been that active either, so that doesn’t help. His last two fights, he went against Bobby Green. And Vannata was the favorite going into the fight. This was at the beginning of Bobby Green’s 2020 run. Vannata slight favorite, I think he was near -135. So close to a pick em, but Vannata the favorite due to projection, Green being the journeyman. Striking in the 1st round is close to equal. But Green’s pace is too much. Green out strikes Vannata by more than a 2 to 1 clip in the 2nd and in the 3rd but a 3 to 1 clip. Wow. So that’s probably when Green’s striking started to elevate to a 70 grade. But then there’s Vannata’s last fight with Grundy. The same Grundy that was favored to beat Makwan Amirkhani. And what does Vannata do? Out lands Grundy by a 2 to 1 clip in the 1st, albeit with a lower volume. And in the 2nd round, out lands Grundy by more than a 3 to 1 clip. But gets tired. Grundy’s cardio is better. And the 3rd round, the striking is close. So part of me thinks Vannata’s striking could be a 65 due to what he did to Grundy. But the other part of me remembers the Green fight and says that’s impossible by how much Green out struck him. Not my most confident grade, but I land on Vannata’s striking being a 60 for now. But it’s possible he could’ve taken a step forward in the Grundy fight, improving it to a 65, but I’m not there yet. And Jourdain might have had a breakthrough performance himself in his last fight with Ewell. I say maybe because despite how that fight ended, the striking was close to equal in the 1st. But Ewell appeared to gas out hard in the 2nd round and Jourdain took over from there out landing Jourdain 95 to 55 in distance strikes on the fight. So maybe Jourdain’s got amazing cardio, pushed a pace, tired Ewell out and has taken his striking to a 70, but I’m not there yet. I’m going to grade it a 65 for now. And Julian Erosa proved Jourdain’s grappling is only a 55. So Jourdain should win here. He should have the better striking. But it’s not a slam dunk as Vannata’s striking could be at a 65 now.
Chris’ Pick: Jourdain by decision.
What I think the line should be: Jourdain -175
Jordan Wright vs Marc-Andre Barriault
- Jordan Wright
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Pickett and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Tools: Wright has near plus striking (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Marc-Andre Barriault
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Jun Yong Park.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Abu Azaitar, a 9-3 striker, and a 7-1 striker. Beat Dalcha Lungiambula.
- Tools: Barriault has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
Yes, Wright did get knocked out by Bruno Silva in his last fight. But. He was out striking Silva up until that point. My point is that I know for sure Silva has 65 grade striking and the fact that Wright was able to keep up with him was impressive. Knockouts happen, especially with Silva. But that type of fight can produce flip of the coin type of results. I could be wrong, small sample. Wright out struck Silva 11 to 8, but I’m going to upgrade his striking to a 65. We didn’t really learn much about Barriault from his last fight as he got knocked out in 16 seconds. This fight could really boil down to the 1st round. Because check this out. Not only has Wright never gone 15 minutes in his whole pro career, he’s never fought in the 3rd round. Ever. So obviously if Wright can’t get Barriault early, he’s not going to win. Barriault has some of the best cardio in the division.
Chris’ Pick: Wright by 1st round knockout.
What I think the line should be: Wright -135
Dwight Grant vs Sergey Khondozkho
- Dwight Grant
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Francisco Trinaldo.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Carlo Pedersoli. Split decision wins over Alan Jouban and a well rounded 12-3 fighter.
- Tools: Grant has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Sergey Khandozhko
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 26-6-6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Lost to a 6-3 grappler, a well rounded 15-8 fighter, and a well rounded 17-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-2 striker. Beat a 6-0 striker.
- Tools: Khandozhko has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
This will be Khandozhko’s first UFC fight in almost 3 years. Haven’t seen much of him. And the only 2 guys he’s fought in the UFC aren’t in the UFC anymore. Although, I am decently confident that Khandozhko’s opponent Rostem Akman has 55 wrestling. And Khandozhko was able to stuff most of the take downs. That said, I think this is a stand up fight. Grant’s striking to his last opponent Francisco Trinaldo, a 60 striker, striking was close to equal. Grant’s going to have a monster power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Grant by 1st round knockout.
What I think the line should be: Grant -175
Tyson Pedro vs Ike Villanueva
- Tyson Pedro
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Khalil Rountree. Knocked out Paul Craig.
- Tools: Pedro has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).
- Ike Villanueva
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 1-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker.
- Tools: Villanueva has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).
Soft landing for Pedro who hasn’t fought in 3 and a half years. Matchup wise, this is great for him. You’d think he’d show up improved 3 and a half years since his last fight. Villanueva hasn’t shown anything that would suggest his wrestling being better than a 50. Maybe Villanueva is able to get back up after being taken down, but Pedro is so slick there, he’s likely to catch Villanueva in a choke one of these times he gets Villaueva on the ground. It’s also possible Villanueva’s striking could be a 60. He did okay against Marcin Prachnio. But it won’t matter if he’s taken down repeatedly.
Chris’ Pick: Pedro by 2nd round submission.
What I think the line should be: Pedro -175
Qileng Aori vs Cameron Else
- Qileng Aori
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 18-9
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key WIns: Submitted a 9-2 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat a 5-0 grappler.
- Tools: Qileng has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Cameron Else
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter and a 4-0 striker.
- Tools: Else has above average striking (60) and average grappling (50).
Really close fight. On the one hand there’s Else, who, yes, was knocked out in the 2nd round of his UFC debut, but 1) he fought rising contender Kyler Phillips and 2) even though he was dominated on the ground, he did pretty good on the feet. Striking was close to even, which is not an easy feat against Phillips. So I have his striking as a 60, but it’s possible it could be a 65. And on the other hand with Qileng, he moves up to 135 lbs for the first time. And it’ll be interesting to see how he does not going through such a tough cut to 125 lbs. Decent chance he shows up better. So, very unpredictable fight. Striking could be close to equal, Else should have more power, but I’m picking Qileng because I think his striking is closer to a 65 than Else and he should mix a couple take downs in.
Chris’ Pick: Qileng by split decision.
What I think the line should be: Qileng -125
Evan Elder vs Preston Parsons
- Evan Elder
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Tools: Elder has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
- Preston Parsons
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 16-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 wrestler and a 5-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Parsons has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Parsons made his UFC debut on short notice. I might be too low on where I have him graded but that’s based off what I’ve seen from him so far. It’s also possible I could be under rating Elder but I was really underwhelmed watching him in his last fight. He took on a well rounded 8-16 fighter. And Elder seemed more interested in accruing cage time than being in a rush to get his opponent out of there. And when Elder got the guy on the ground, he really didn’t pass guard. Stayed in the same position, landed a few shots. So I have Elder graded with 50 tools for now. And Parsons will be the toughest fight in his career by far. On less than a week’s notice. I think Elder might have more power, but Parsons should be able to mix a couple take downs in, tire Elder out. Wear on him and get a close win.
Chris’ Pick: Parsons by split decision.
What I think the line should be: Parsons -125
Marcin Prachnio vs Philipe Lins
- Marcin Prachnio
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ike Villanueva. Beat Khalil Rountree.
- Tools: Prachnio has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Philipe Lins
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 14-5
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by a 12-7 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Rosholt, a 6-2 grappler, a 7-2 grappler, a 7-2 striker, and a well rounded 18-5 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 striker, a 6-1 grappler, and a well rounded 12-3 fighter.
- Tools: Lins has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60).
I’m really looking forward to this fight. Prachnio went from starting his UFC career 0-3. Getting a rare 4th shot, to winning 2 in a row, including a win over Khalil Rountree, which is aging pretty well. And he’s proven his 65 striking. But Lins is very interesting at 205 lbs. Yes, he’s got an 0-2 UFC record. But he lost a really close fight with 65 striker Andrei Arlovski. Striking was close to equal. And 70 striker Tanner Boser knocked Lins out, but it wasn’t a blow out up to that point. Those are 2 quality heavyweights. And the gap between light heavyweight and heavyweight is the biggest in the sport. Striking could be close to equal here, but I like Lins because projecting out, his striking is more likely to be closer to a 70 based on what he did at heavyweight and he might be able to mix in a couple take downs too.
Chris’ Pick: Lins by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the line should be: Lins -135
Mike Jackson vs Dean Barry
- Mike Jackson
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 0-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Tools: Jackson has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). He also has below average wrestling (40).
- Dean Barry
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 3-1
- Tools: Barry has average striking (50) and fringe average wrestling (45).
Lots of projection needed to pick this fight because neither has that many pro MMA fights. Jackson is here because he’s coming off a win, now a no contest over CM Punk 4 years ago. We’ll see if he’s improved at all. Barry should have an advantage. He’s been way more active despite only fighting once a year. It looks like he’s the better striker, but again, we haven’t seen much of Jackson inside the cage.
Chris’ Pick: Barry by decision.
What I think the line should be: Barry -225