Alexander Volkov vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- Alexander Volkov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alistair Overeem, Walt Harris, and Fabricio Werdum. Beat Marcin Tybura and Greg Hardy.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Augusto Sakai, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Andrei Arlovski.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Yes, Tom Aspinall surprised Volkov. Took him down. Caught him in a submission in the 1st round. It happens. Kinda like flash knockouts. Despite Volkov losing quickly and not looking good, I’ve seen way too much of him to downgrade his wrestling grade. Before the Aspinall fight, Volkov went against 70 wrestler Tybura. And Volkov stuffed 16 out of 16 take down attempts. On the feet, this fight is a coin flip. On the ground, it’s a whole different story. Volkov has to see that. He only needs to look at Rozenstruik’s last fight with Curtis Blaydes where Rozenstruik lost once again because he hasn’t improved his wrestling beyond a 60. So unless he’s made some big improvements to his wrestling, I see Volkov grinding him out similar to what Blaydes did.
Chris’ Pick: Volkov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Volkov -175
Dan Ige vs Movsar Evloev
- Dan Ige
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gavin Tucker. Knocked down Danny Henry and submitted him. Beat Kevin Aguilar. Split decision wins over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Movsar Evloev
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 15-0
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter and a 15-5 wrestler. Submitted an 11-3 striker. Beat Hakeem Dawodu, Mike Grundy, Enrique Barzola, a 7-1 striker, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 14-2 wrestler. Split decision win over Nik Lentz.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Really close fight. Ige showed some improvements in his striking in his last fight with Josh Emmett. Striking was close to equal and I’m bumping up his striking grade to a 70. But Emmett won the fight because there was a huge difference in power. And Ige only has 2 KOs in 12 UFC fights, so I’ve also decided to downgrade his power to a 60. Evloev showed his wrestling is without a doubt a 70 with the way he took Dawodu down and controlled him for most of the fight. And when they were on the feet, Evloev didn’t do that bad. Dawodu out struck him but it wasn’t a washout. I think this will be close though because I could see Evloev grinding hard for take downs the first half of the fight, starting to tire out. Then Ige taking over on the feet, stuffing more take downs. Ige is a better grappler than Dawodu. So if Evloev got tired grappling Dawodu all fight, he’ll gas out even earlier with Ige.
Chris’ Pick: Ige by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ige -135
Michael Trizano vs Lucas Almeida
- Michael Trizano
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Beat Ludovit Klein. Split decision over Luis Pena
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Lucas Almeida
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 9-3 fighter, a 7-1 wrestler, a 12-3 grappler, and a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Trizano’s last fight with Hakeem Dawodu showed where he’s at. Dawodu, who has 70 striking, out landed Trizano by more than a 2 to 1 clip. Despite the 5-2 UFC record, Trizano’s development has stalled a bit in my opinion. And he’s got an interesting opponent in Almeida, who looked good on The Contender, up until the half way point when he started to gas out. He went hard in the 1st round, but also hadn’t fought in 2 years. It’s possible Almeida’s grappling could be a 55. I suspect Trizano will want to test that out. So I’m not sure what happens on the ground. But what I do know is that Almeida will have a lot more power and if they stand long enough, I see Trizano going out.
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Almeida -125
Poliana Botelho vs Karine Silva
- Poliana Botelho
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Luana Carolina.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 striker, a 3-1 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 4-1 wrestler. Beat Lauren Mueller.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Karine Silva
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 14-4
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 20-3 fighter, well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
We didn’t see much striking from Silva on The Contender. Mostly it was a grappling match that she was mostly losing. But she sunk in a guillotine and that was that. Silva losing the fight up to that point I think has more to do with Qihiu Yan being better than I thought. I do think Silva is a very good prospect but wow, this is a stiff test with Botelho. 6 UFC fights. Way more experience. I’m not confident Botelho has 65 grade striking. It could be a 60. And it’s also possible Silva’s striking could be closer to a 65. So this is close to a coin flip fight but I think Botelho’s experience will help her get it done.
Chris’ Pick: Botelho by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Botelho -150
Alonzo Menifield vs Askar Mozharov
- Alonzo Menifield
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Askar Mozharov
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 21-8
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 16-6 fighter. Knocked out by a 14-10 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: fringe average (45)
I’ll say this about Mozharov. He’s young for a light heavyweight. Lots of pro fights. Still a prospect though. Still has lots of work to do with his wrestling. I watched him get submitted by a well rounded 16-6 fighter. His striking looked good, like a 55, but he looked lost when it came to how to get back up to his feet. Menifield has improved his wrestling enough to where it’s a 60. He could stand and strike with Mozharov. But that’s risky. What if his striking has improved to be more like a 60? And from what I could tell, Mozharov looks like he’s the most dangerous in the 1st round. Goes hard, then starts to gas out. I think the path of least resistance is for Menifield to take him down.
Chris’ Pick: Menifield by 1st round ground and pound knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Menifield -600
Ode Osbourne vs Zarrukh Adashev
- Ode Osbourne
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat CJ Vergara.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Zarrukh Adashev
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 4-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-1 grappler in his pro debut in 2015.
- Key Wins: Beat Ryan Benoit.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
When Adashev fought Benoit last time out, the line closed at a pick em price. The market had both guys going in with 60 striking. But Adashev clearly won the striking exchanges. So is Adashev better than we thought or is Benoit’s tools regressing? I think it’s more to do with the latter because going into that fight, I had Benoit’s striking as a 55. I could be wrong though and Adashev could have 65 striking. With Osbourne, his last couple fights with Manel Kape and Vergara show his striking is clearly a 60. So I see Adashev with possible, slightly better striking and he should have a wrestling advantage too.
Chris’ Pick: Adashev by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Adashev -150
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Felice Herrig
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-7
- Key Losses: Submitted by Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Beat Randa Markos. Split decision over Rose Namajunas in 2016.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: below average (40)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Felice Herrig
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Paige Vanzant.
- Key Wins: Beat Alexa Grasso and Justine Kish. Split decision over Cortney Casey.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
This is a really hard fight to pick because Herrig has only had 2 minutes of cage time in the last 4 years. Kowalkiewicz retired, came back, and she’s only had about 4 minutes of cage time in the last 2 years. But I make my picks based off the skill that I’ve seen, as opposed to me projecting whether someone shows up better or worse than before. And yes, Herrig was taken down and submitted by Virna Jandiroba in less than 2 minutes. But she caught. Same thing happens with flash knockouts in the first couple minutes. Let’s look at what she did before that. Her fight with Michelle Waterson who I know has 65 striking and grappling. And Herrig slightly got the better of the grappling. Striking was close to equal. So based on what I’ve seen in the larger sample size, the tools are still there. But the same can’t be said for Kowalkiewicz. Yes, she fought Herrig back in 2018. It was a close split decision win for Kowalkiewicz, but let’s look at her last couple fights. She fought Jessica Penne. Penne has at best 65 grappling. And Penne was able to take her down, no problem, and control her until she got the arm bar. So that’s why I have Kowalkiewicz’s wrestling at a 55. And not much striking in that fight. 4 to 4. So let’s look at her last fight before that. Against Xiaonan Yan. Xiaonan out struck her 73 to 35. More than a 2 to 1 clip. I know Xiaonan has 70 striking. So I’m grading Kowalkiewicz’s striking as a 60. So, hard fight to project. Hard to predict where Herrig’s tools will be at, but based on what we’ve seen, if Penne could take Kowalkiewicz down and have her way, I’m pretty sure Herrig will be able to. And even if she can’t for some reason, Herrig should have better striking.
Chris’ Pick: Herrig by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Herrig -225
Joe Solecki vs Alex da Silva
- Joe Solecki
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jared Gordon.
- Key Wins: Submitted Austin Hubbard and a 6-2 grappler. Beat Jim Miller.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Alex da Silva
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 21-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Alexander Yakovlev.
- Key Wins: Beat an 11-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Da Silva hasn’t fought in almost 2 years since his really close decision loss to Brad Riddell. I actually thought da Silva won the fight. Riddell won the 3rd round with his striking, but the first 2 rounds, the striking was close and da Silva was getting take downs with some control. But he started to gas out from all the wrestling in the 3rd round and Riddell took over. Solecki also gassed out in the Jared Gordon fight. Lost because of it. But I still have his grappling as a 65. He got the better of Gordon when he was fresh. He just needs to be more efficient and conserve his energy better. That said, the ground game should be canceled out here. And let me tell you. da Silva has a 21-3 pro record. Only 1 of his wins came by decision. He’s going to have way more power than Solecki
Chris’ Pick: da Silva by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: da Silva -300
Damon Jackson vs Dan Argueta
- Damon Jackson
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 2-3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Mirsad Bektic, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 20-3 grappler. Knocked out a 12-3 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Dan Argueta
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over a 14-6 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
But Jackson, wow. What improvements. I thought Kirk should have been around a 3 to 1 favorite over Jackson. The market had it as a pick em and I turned out to be wrong, grading Kirk’s tools a tad too high. But Jackson improved both his striking and grappling to 65’s. And Argueta is interesting if you watch his last two fights. He took on an undefeated 12-0 striker. Had his way with him on the ground. Argueta was dominant and I was getting ready to grade his wrestling a 60. But then the next fight after that, his latest fight, he took on a 14-6 grappler. And Argueta squeaked out a split decision win. So it’s weird. Grappling was close to equal that fight. And it’s possible he had 55 grappling, but definitely not a 60 and that’s why I’m keeping Argueta’s grappling as a 55. But even if I’m wrong and Argueta’s grappling is a 60, it doesn’t change the fact that Jackson will have a really big striking advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Jackson by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jackson -325
Niklas Stolze vs Benoit St Denis
- Niklas Stolze
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Lost to an 11-12 grappler in 2017.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Benoit St. Denis
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
The numbers in the St Denis vs Zaleski dos Santos fight are interesting. Zaleski dos Santos battered St Denis in the first 2 rounds of the fight, out landing St Denis at almost a 2 to 1 clip. Lots of people think the ref should’ve stopped the fight, but then in the 3rd round, the striking was close to equal. Did Zaleski dos Santos take his foot off the gas showing mercy? Did he gas out? Did St Denis have better cardio? Who knows. In the last 2 years, Stolze has only logged about 1 minute of time in the UFC cage. Got knocked out by Jared Gooden. So his UFC debut with Ramazan Emeev paints a better picture with where his skills are at. It’s possible Stolze’s grappling could be a 55, but I doubt it. Besides, he should come into this fight improved being he hasn’t fought much. Stolze’s striking with 60 striker Emeev was close to equal and he should out land St Denis, but it’ll be a closer fight than with Zaleski dos Santos.
Chris’ Pick: Stolze by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Stolze -200
Tony Gravely vs Johnny Munoz Jr
- Tony Gravely
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 15-5 fighter, an 8-0 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 7-2 wrestler. Beat Saimon Oliveira. Split decision over Geraldo de Freitas.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Johnny Munoz
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Munoz has really proven to be the real deal. His controversial split decision loss to Nathan Maness has aged well, where Munoz dominated with his wrestling. His last fight with Jamey Simmons, when Munoz decided to take the fight to the ground there was almost no resistance and soon game over. I’m still not 100% sure Gravely has 65 wrestling. Yes, he took Oliveira down 11 times. Yes, he had over 11 minutes of control time in the fight, but it was a unique situation where Oliveira is a confident grappler and he was going for guillotine after guillotine. I still remember Gravely getting taken down over and over again by Brett Johns, but maybe, or probably Gravely’s wrestling has improved. Either way, the wrestling vs grappling won’t decide the fight here. It’ll be the stand up. Gravely should have a big power advantage but I see the striking exchanges being really close. I also think Gravely’s cardio could be a bit better too.
Chris’ Pick: Gravely by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Gravely -125
Jeff Molina vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov
- Jeff Molina
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel da Silva. Beat Qileng Aori and a 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Zhalgas Zhumagulov
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 14-6
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 12-5 fighter. Split decision losses to a well rounded 19-7 fighter and a 6-5 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jerome Rivera. Beat Tyson Nam. Knocked out a 5-0-1 striker. Beat a 9-3 wrestler. Majority decision over a 7-0 grappler. Split decision win over a 19-6 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Real high level fight here. Molina did look really impressive in his last fight with da Silva. Knocked him down, finished him with ground and pound. But it was his power that really got it done. Because the data shows that on the feet, da Silva out landed him by 14 to 9. So it was Molina’s power and slight wrestling advantage that got it done. Zhumagulov reaffirmed his 60 striking in his last fight with Manel Kape. Striking was close, but Kape was landing more. But it’s possible Kape’s striking could be closer to a 70 and Zhumagulov’s closer to a 65. Zhumagulov might land here more. And despite how good Molina’s wrestling looked last time out, I have Zhumagulov with a slight advantage there.
Chris’ Pick: Zhumagulov by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Zhumagulov -150
Andreas Michailidis vs Rinat Fakheretdinov
- Andreas Michailidis
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-0 wrestler and a 9-3 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Rinat Fakheretdinov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 18-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 13-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Michailidis is tricky to grade. He’s had 3 fights in the UFC. His last fight with Alex Pereira, barely any strikes were thrown before he got knocked out. His last fight with KB Bhullar was very interesting. Michailidis started off fast, got off to a lead. Out struck Bhullar 22 to 11 in the 1st round. But started to slow down mid way through the fight. Striking was close to equal in the 2nd round. And Bhullar out landed Michailidis 37 to 19 in the 3rd. And who knows what Bhullar’s striking really is. Bhullar’s only other UFC fight was him getting knocked out in less than 2 minutes. Probably the best data I can go off of is Michailidis’ UFC debut with Modestas Bukauskas. Michailidis out struck Bukauskas 23 to 11 in the only round of the fight. And in Bukauskas’ last fight, I had him graded with 60 striking. But I don’t think Michailidis has 65 striking. The most probable scenario is Bukauskas making his UFC debut with 55 striking and then later improving to a 60. Which makes Michailidis’ striking a 60. But not my most confident grade. Fakheretdinov comes to the UFC with a lot of hype and a shiny 18-1 pro record. There’s not much video on him out there but I watched him knock out UFC vet Eric Spicely in quick fashion, but do admit that there’s a bunch of projection baked into his grades. So I have these guys graded close to equal, but I’m going to pick Fakheretdinov due to his reputation and he’s more likely to come in better than I think he is as opposed to Michailidis.
Chris’ Pick: Fakheretdinov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fakeretdinov -150
Erin Blanchfield vs JJ Aldrich
- Erin Blanchfield
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Tracy Cortez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Beat Miranda Maverick and Sarah Alpar. Majority decision over Kay Hansen.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- JJ Aldrich
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Beat Gillian Robertson, Vanessa Demopoulos, Polyana Viana, and Lauren Mueller. Split decision over Cortney Casey.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Blanchfield is the very rare type of prospect that I can say will likely be champion some day. I know for 100% fact that Maverick has 65 grade wrestling. And Blanchfield dominated Maverick on the ground. Thus, I have to grade Blanchfield’s wrestling a 75, a grade that usually is only given to champions and top contenders. And she’s only 22 years old. I don’t know why Aldrich called Blanchfield out. Yes, Aldrich has improved wrestling. Yes, Aldrich stuffed Robertson’s take downs. But Aldrich’s wrestling is a 65, same as Maverick’s. I see Blanchfield having no problem here.
Chris’ Pick: Blanchfield by 2nd round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Blanchfield -375