Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili
- Petr Yan
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Sean O’Malley and Aljamain Sterling.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Douglas Silva de Andrade and Urijah Faber. Beat Cory Sandhagen, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ricky Simon at the very end of the fight. Split decision loss to Frankie Saenz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marlon Moraes. Beat Jose Aldo, Casey Kenney, Cody Stamann, John Dodson, and Brad Katona.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
Dvalishvili vs Aldo wasn’t the most exciting fight but it served a purpose in showing where Dvalishvili’s skills are really at. Most surprising in the fight was that Dvalishvili out struck Aldo 43 to 35. Not sure anyone saw that coming. The market had Yan as a -275 favorite over Sean O’Malley, but I wasn’t sure whether that was because they thought Yan had better striking, or get take downs, or both. But for me, the big question coming out of Yan’s fight with O’Malley is what happened with the wrestling? I didn’t think Yan would be able to repeatedly take O’Malley down, but he did. And I think it’s more likely that O’Malley’s wrestling is closer to a 65. Because I know how good Aljamain Sterling’s grappling is and he was able to take Yan down repeatedly. Should be a fun, close fight. I think Dvalishvili will be able to get take downs just like Sterling. And I also think Dvalishvili’s striking is closer to a 75.
Chris’ Pick: Dvalishvili by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dvalishvili -135
Alexander Volkov vs Alexandr Romanov
- Alexander Volkov
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alistair Overeem, Walt Harris, and Fabricio Werdum. Beat Marcin Tybura and Greg Hardy.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Alexandr Romanov
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chase Sherman. a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out Jared Vanderaa and a well rounded 20-5 fighter. Split decision over Juan Espino.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Romanov is hard to grade because he blitzes in the 1st round. Looks like he has 80 wrestling with his slams. But his problem is if he doesn’t finish the fight, he slows down and isn’t the same guy. What he does in the 1st, he can’t maintain it for more than I round. So it’s possible that with better conditioning and cardio, the wrestling could be a 75, but I have it at a 70 for now. And Romanov’s striking tool was reaffirmed as a 65 against Marcin Tybura. In the past I’ve suspected that Volkov’s striking was very close to a 75 grade and he left no doubt in his last fight that that’s where the tool is at now, out landing against Rozenstruik 21 to 6. If Romanov isn’t able to finish Volkov quickly on the ground, he’ll be in trouble.
Chris’ Pick: Volkov by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Volkov -175
Ryan Spann vs Nikita Krylov
- Ryan Spann
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Misha Cirkunov, and Lil’ Nog. Submitted Ion Cutelaba and Devin Clark. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Nikita Krylov
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 9-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Gustafsson, Ed Herman, and Walt Harris. Submitted Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Francimar Barroso, and Ovince St. Preux. Beat Volkan Oezdemir.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I thought Krylov’s fight with Magomed Anakalaev was an outlier. I couldn’t make sense over what I saw. Krylov actually out struck Ankalaev 45 to 29. Maybe Ankalaev’s striking was a 65 at that point, but still surprising. I know Krylov’s striking is just a 70 based on the numbers in his last fight with Oezdemir. In the Ankalaev fight, Krylov’s wrestling was a 70, but it’s gotten better since then. I know Oezdemir has 70 wrestling. Oezdemir showed it off when he stuffed every take down attempt from Paul Craig. So when Krylov was able to take Oezdemir down repeatedly, I have no choice but to upgrade his wrestling tool to a 75. The people that thought Reyes should’ve been a 2 to 1 favorite over Spann were crazy. I thought it was close to a pick em, thought Reyes should’ve been -125. And Spann proved me right in the fight. Didn’t last long. But the problem for Spann here with Krylov is going to be the wrestling. Spann fought Cutelaba not too long ago and Cutelaba was able to take him down a couple times. And hey, look at this crazy stat. All 5 of Spann’s last 5 fights have ended in the 1st round. The longest of the bunch went 3 minutes and 47 seconds. The blue print for Krylov here is obvious. Put Spann on the fence. Clinch. Take him down, tire him out. It’s a 5 round fight. Take him to deep water. And I think Krylov has the tools to execute the plan.
Chris’ Pick: Krylov by 4th round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Krylov -200
Makhmud Muradov vs Abusupiyan Magomedov
- Makhmud Muradov
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andrew Sanchez, Trevor Smith, a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Beat Alessio Di Chirico.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Abusupiyan Magomedov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 25-4-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Stolztfus, Jessin Ayari, an 11-2 striker, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, and a 10-3 grappler. Submitted a 12-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Muradov by decision.
Ricardo Ramos vs Austin Lingo
- Ricardo Ramos
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Bill Algeo and Journey Newsom. Knocked out Danny Chavez. Split decision win over Kyung Ho Kang.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Austin Lingo
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat Luis Saldana.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Ramos proved his had 65 striking in his fight with Zubaira Tukhugov. And after knocking Chavez out in about a minute, I think his power is up to a 65 now too. Only his 2nd knockout in the UFC in 10 UFC fights, so I could be wrong. Ok, so Lingo does have some wrestling, he was able to stuff take down attempts by 60 wrestler Saldana. So I have Lingo’s wrestling as a 60 as well. But I’m confident I have Lingo graded accurately and I’m confident Ramos is better everywhere. Monster power advantage for Ramos.
Chris’ Pick: Ramos by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Ramos -350
Said Nurmagomedov vs Jonathan Martinez
- Said Nurmagomedov
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Stamann, Ricardo Ramos, and Mark Striegl. Submitted Saidyokub Kahkramonov. Beat a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a 16-3 grappler. Split decision over Justin Scoggins.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jonathan Martinez
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Losses: Controversial split decision loss to Andre Ewell. Lost to Andre Soukhamthath.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cub Swanson, Frankie Saenz, and Pingyuan Liu. Beat Vince Morales, Alejandro Perez, Thomas Almeida, and Zviad Lavishvili.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Said’s fight with Kakhramonov played out about how I thought it would, minus the guillotine finish. Kakhramonov was getting take downs and control time, but that has more to do with Kakhramonov having legit 70 wrestling. Two surprising things happened in Martinez’s fight with Swanson. First, Martinez was able to control Swanson for chunks of time in the fight. So I’m upgrading Martinez’s wrestling to a 65 because of that. Secondly, the striking was close to equal. But I’ve seen too much of Martinez to doubt the 65 grade I have on that tool. So I’d chalk up the close striking numbers to Swanson showing up like the Swanson of old, rather than Martinez taking a step back. Close fight. Said has more power. I see that being the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Nurmagomedov by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Nurmagomedov -150
Vitor Petrino vs Anton Turkalj
- Vitor Petrino
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rodolfo Bellato twice and Gadzhimurad Antigulov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Anton Turkalj
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-0 at 205 lbs. 1-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat a 14-4 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I thought Bellato’s grappling would give Petrino problems in their rematch, but it turns out Petrino improved his wrestling to a 60. Petrino also proved once and for all his striking is better than a 60 as he knocked Bellato out for a second time. My opinion of how good Turkalj hasn’t changed despite him getting demolished by Jailton Almeida last time out. No shame there. Fight could be close. Turkalj’s grappling is better than Bellato’s. Will probably be able to get Petrino down, maybe lock in a submission. But I do think parts of the fight will be on the feet and Petrino will catch him.
Chris’ Pick: Petrino by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Petrino -135
Karl Williams vs Lukasz Brzeski
- Karl Williams
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 4-1 striker and a 5-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Lukasz Brzeski
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Martin Buday.
- Key Draws: Fought an 18-10 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat a 20-5 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
I badly was under rating Brzeski’s striking. I had it as a 50 tool, but he out struck Buday by more than a 2 to 1 clip. Williams fight with Lawson was a stunner. Lawson came in as a -250 favorite. Had the wrestling pedigree. Williams came in on short notice, moved up to fight at heavyweight and incredibly, was able to take Lawson down and control him for almost the whole fight. Incredible and something we don’t see that often. And what’s more crazy is that Williams also out struck Lawson 14 to 1. Total domination by a lighter fighter. So for starters, I don’t think Lawson is as good as we thought he is. At worst, I still have Lawson’s wrestling as a 55. So I have no problem grading Williams’ wrestling a 65, especially when he’s returning to light heavyweight. And there’s a bit of projection baked in, but I’m decently sure, the striking is a 60 tool. I see Williams having no problem taking Brzeski down and winning with take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Williams by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Williams -250
Raphael Assuncao vs Davey Grant
- Raphael Assuncao
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 12-5
- Key Wins: Beat Victor Henry, Rob Font, Pedro Munhoz and Bryan Caraway. Split decision wins over Marlon Moraes, Aljamain Sterling, and TJ Dillashaw (2013).
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Davey Grant
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Damian Stasiak and Manny Bermudez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Louis Smolka and Jonathan Martinez. Beat Marlon Vera in 2016.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Assuncao proved he can still go out and do Assuncao type things in his upset win over Henry. His tools are still there despite being 40 years old now. The market seemed to think that Grant’s wrestling is a 65, but I’m skeptical. Assuncao will definitely test it.
Chris’ Pick: Assuncao by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Assuncao -200
Josh Fremd vs Sedriques Dumas
- Josh Fremd
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-4
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Submitted a 5-1 wrestler. Split decision over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Sedriques Dumas
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I don’t think I was under rating Tresean Gore. The market had Fremd as a -165 favorite going in. And Gore did pull the upset, partly because he showed up improved. And partly, I think his win was more of the fluky variety. Fremd got too comfortable going for a take down. Gore got the neck, got a choke locked in deep. Got the tap. It happens sometimes. But the 1st round of the fight reaffirmed Fremd’s tools. This is a tough fight to pick though because I haven’t seen much of Dumas. It’s possible that his skills are better than where I have him graded. But Fremd is more likely to have better striking.
Chris’ Pick: Fremd by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fremd -175
Mario Bautista vs Guido Cannetti
- Mario Bautista
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miles Johns. Submitted Benito Lopez and Brian Kelleher. Beat a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 7-1-2 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Guido Cannetti
- Age: 43
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Leomana Martinez.
- Key Wins: Submitted Randy Costa. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I thought the striking between Bautista and Lopez would be close, but nope. Maybe Lopez’s striking is more of a 55. Probably is. Well, Bautista out struck him 32 to 13. So I can absolutely confidently grade Bautista’s striking a 70 now. I really don’t see a path for Cannetti to win here.
Chris’ Pick: Bautista by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Bautista -450
JJ Aldrich vs Ariane Lipski
- JJ Aldrich
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Beat Gillian Robertson, Vanessa Demopoulos, Polyana Viana, and Lauren Mueller. Split decision over Cortney Casey.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Ariane Lipski
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Luana Carolina, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 12-4 grappler. Beat Mandy Bohm.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Not much to take from Lipski getting knocked out in a minute by Priscila Cachoeira, except that it had more to do with Cachoeira leveling up. And who’s been Erin Blanchfield’s toughest fight? Maybe Jessica Andrade. But maybe Aldrich. Because even though Aldrich lost, she looked real good. Striking was close to equal. And going into the fight, I thought Blanchfield’s striking was a 65. But after seeing how Blanchfield’s stand up did against Andrade, it looked like a 70, borderline 75. Incredible. But that raises the question, how good exactly is Aldrich’s striking? Probably a 70. And her wrestling is definitely a 70 too. More confident in that. I’m also very, very confident Aldrich wins here, has two legit paths to win.
Chris’ Pick: Aldrich by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Aldrich -500
Victor Henry vs Tony Gravely
- Victor Henry
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 22-6
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anderson dos Santos. Submitted a well rounded 11-2 fighter, an 18-3 wrestler and a 10-2-1 wrestler. Beat a 6-0 wrestler, a 4-0 striker, and a 12-4 wrestler. Split decision over Kyler Phillips.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Tony Gravely
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Johnny Munoz, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, an 8-0 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 7-2 wrestler. Beat Saimon Oliveira. Split decision over Geraldo de Freitas.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Gravely was doing okay against Javid Basharat, but he went too hard early and started gassing out towards the middle of the fight. The tools are still there, he just needs to manage his cardio better. Assuncao upset Henry, but that had more to do with the market giving up on Assuncao, then Henry not being as good as thought. Henry should win here but he just has to look out for Gravely’s power.
Chris’ Pick: Henry by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Henry -150
Tyson Nam vs Bruno Silva
- Tyson Nam
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Matt Schnell.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ode Osbourne and Jerome Rivera.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 12-5-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Draws: Fought Casey Kenney and a 4-0 grappler to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victor Rodriguez, JP Buys, and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Nam has had a decently successful UFC career thus far. Yes, he has a 2-3 record, but he’s gone against top ranked opponents. His losses have been against contenders Matt Schnell, Kai Kara France, and Sergio Pettis. He hasn’t fought in about a year and a half. Lost his last fight to Schnell because Schnell has 65 striking. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nam wins and knocks Silva out, but I’m picking Silva because he’s more likely to have 65 striking and is 7 years younger.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -125
Carlston Harris vs Jared Gooden
- Carlston Harris
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 17-5
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to an 11-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Impa Kasanganay and an 8-1 striker. Submitted a 17-1 grappler. Beat Wellington Turman, a 7-1 striker, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: alittle above average (55)
- Jared Gooden
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 22-8
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Niklas Stolze. Beat a well rounded 9-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Gooden put on the performance of his career in his last UFC fight with Randy Brown. I thought it would be a mismatch but Gooden showed up with improved skills. His striking is actually really close to a 65. But unfortunately for him, the loss left him with a 1-3 UFC record and he was cut. But Abubakar Nurmagomedov pulls out of the fight with Harris and Gooden gets another opportunity on a week’s notice. Gooden has a chance here, especially if his striking is indeed a 65, but I think Harris will start to take over in the 2nd half of the fight. Gooden does struggle with cardio and I see Harris being patient and ramping up as Gooden gets tired.
Chris’ Pick: Harris by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Harris -250