Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker 2
- Magomed Ankalaev
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out Anthony Smith. Submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight.
- Key Draws: Fought Jan Blachowicz to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ion Cutelaba twice. Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula. Beat Thiago Santos, Nikita Krylov, and Klidson Abreu.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus wrestling (75)
- Johnny Walker
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, Ryan Spann, Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov. Submitted Ion Cutelaba. Beat Anthony Smith.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I was thinking maybe Smith’s striking was starting to regress going in to his fight with Ryan Spann. Everybody saw it as a coin flip fight. Then Smith out strikes Spann 90 to 50. Wow. So Smith’s striking hasn’t gone anywhere. Is still a 70. And now let’s go back. Walker out landed Smith 81 to 38. Wow. Can’t deny that Walker’s striking has leveled up to a 75. I’ll admit I’ve been going back and forth on how good Blachowicz’s striking is. He’s not consistent there. He fights Ankalaev and the striking is close to equal. But I’ve been up in the air on how good Ankalaev’s striking is too. Then Blachowicz takes on Alex Pereira and it’s case closed. Pereira had 75 striking at 185 lbs. Moves up to 205 lbs against Blachowicz. And Pereira out strikes him 62 to 41. There’s no way Pereira’s striking is all of a sudden a top of the scale 80 after moving up a weight class. So Blachowicz has 70 striking and Ankalaev also has 70 striking. Now, I could see Ankalaev winning a decision by taking Walker down repeatedly. But it’s a 3 round fight. Walker has huge power. I just think the chances of Walker catching him are pretty good.
Chris’ Pick: Walker by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Walker -200
Jim Miller vs Gabriel Benitez
- Jim Miller
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 25-16
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nik Motta. Submitted Donald Cerrone, Roosevelt Roberts, and Clay Guida.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Gabriel Benitez
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Enrique Barzola.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Charlie Ontiveros. Submitted Sam Siciliia. Beat Jason Knight.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
This fight could go either way, but I have more confidence Miller’s striking is a 60. I didn’t like how Ontiveros out struck Benitiez. And Benitez has been knocked out in 2 of his last 3 fights and 3 of his last 6 fights. Miller, despite being 40 years old, seems more durable.
Chris’ Pick: Miller by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Miller -125
Ricky Simon vs Mario Bautista
- Ricky Simon
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Urijah Faber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jack Shore and Merab Dvalishvili. Knocked out Raphael Assuncao. Beat Brian Kelleher, Montel Jackson, and Rani Yahya. Split decision over Ray Borg.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Mario Bautista
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miles Johns. Submitted Guido Cannetti, Benito Lopez, and Brian Kelleher. Beat Da’Mon Blackshear, a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 7-1-2 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
If Blackshear, on 5 days notice, had success taking Bautista down again and again, you know what Simon is going to do here.
Chris’ Pick: Simon by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Simon -300
Phil Hawes vs Brunno Ferreira
- Phil Hawes
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Deron Winn, a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat Kyle Daukaus. Majority decision over Nassourdine Imavov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Brunno Ferreira
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Knocked out Gregory Rodrigues, a well rounded 10-1 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Hawes is coming off a bad KO loss. I expect him to go to his wrestling early and often. And he should have the cardio to grind out Ferreira.
Chris’ Pick: Hawes by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hawes -175
Andrei Arlovski vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Andrei Arlovski
- Age: 44
- UFC Record: 12-11 in his 2nd stint.
- Key Losses: Lost to Tai Tuivasa. Split decision loss to Augusto Sakai.
- Key Wins: Beat Carlos Felipe, Tanner Boser, Chase Sherman, and Ben Rothwell. Split decision wins over Jake Collier and Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lukasz Brzeski, a 5-0 striker, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Chase Sherman and Jared Vanderaa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
The fight only lasted 3 minutes, so small sample size, but the striking between Brzeski and Cortes-Acosta was close to equal. And there’s no way Brzeski has 70 striking. Arlovski is coming off a KO loss. I think it’s likely his chin could be giving out.
Chris’ Pick: Cortes-Acosta by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Cortes-Acosta -250
Matthew Semelsberger vs Preston Parsons
- Matt Semelsberger
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Jeremiah Wells.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Martin Sano and Jason Witt. Beat Jake Matthews, AJ Fletcher, and a 10-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Preston Parsons
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 16-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 wrestler and a 5-2 wrestler. Beat Evan Elder.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I wasn’t the only one low on Parsons as Roberts closed as a -130 favorite against Parsons. But Parsons leveled up his wrestling stuff both take down attempts. It’s also possible his striking could be as high as a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Semelsberger by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Semelsberger -500
Marcus McGhee vs Gaston Bolanos
- Marcus McGhee
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Journey Newson. Knocked out JP Buys and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Gaston Bolanos
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Chris’ Pick: McGhee by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: McGhee -500
Farid Basharat vs Taylor Lapilus
- Farid Basharat
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Kleydson Rodrigues. Beat Da’Mon Blackshear, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Taylor Lapilus
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nathan Maness, Yuta Sasaki, an 11-0 wrestler, and an 8-0-1 wrestler. Beat Caolan Loughran, a well rounded 12-1 fighter. Split decision over a 6-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I could be under rating Lapilus a little bit but I’m just not sold on Loughran’s wrestling being a 65 grade. So I think Loughran’s ability to out wrestle Lapilus has more to do with Lapilus not being as good as I thought but I could be wrong.
Chris’ Pick: Basharat by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Basharat -500
Jean Silva vs Westin Wilson
- Jean Silva
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a 5-2 striker. Submitted a 5-2 striker. Beat an 11-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Westin Wilson
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 16-8
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by an 8-4 wrestler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Silva by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Silva -400
Tom Nolan vs Nick Motta
- Tom Nolan
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-1 striker and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Nick Motta
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cameron VanCamp, Joe Solecki, and a 6-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 striker and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Everybody thought Motta vs Ogden was a near pick em, with everybody giving Motta a slight edge as he closed a -130 favorite, likely due to him having more power. But instead, despite the no contest, Ogden out classed him. Was able to take Motta down. Out struck him 44 to 14.
Chris’ Pick: Nolan by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Nolan -400
Felipe Bunes vs Joshua Van
- Felipe Bunes
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 13-6
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker, a well rounded 7-0-1 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Joshua Van
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 wrestler. Beat Kevin Borjas. Split decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I watched Bunes take on Jussier Formiga in LFA and even though Bunes lost, I was still impressed. Bunes did okay and arguably out grappled Formiga in the 1st round, but seemed to tire out in the 2nd round, made a mistake in the grappling and Formiga capitalized on it. At first glance, it’s not a great record, but he has the skills. Van’s cardio and pace is so impressive. Striking could be as high as a 70. Borjas is a good prospect but Van out struck him 153 to 73.
Chris’ PIck: Van by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Van -500