Morales vs Burns, Craig vs Bellato, Pennington vs Pinheiro Fight Picks – May 17, 2025

Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales

  • Gilbert Burns
  • Age: 38
  • UFC Record: 7-5 at 170 lbs. 13-8 overall.
  • Key Losses: Lost to Rashid Magomedov and Michel Prazares.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Demian Maia. Submitted Neil Magny, Alex Oliveira, and Mike Davis. Beat Stephen Thompson, Tyron Woodley, Alexey Kunchenko, and Gunnar Nelson.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Michael Morales
  • Age: 25
  • UFC Record: 6-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Neil Magny, Adam Fugitt, and Trevin Giles. Beat Jake Matthews, Max Griffin, and a 9-3 striker.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Burns by split decision.


Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato

  • Paul Craig
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 1-3 at 185 lbs. 9-9-1 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Muniz, Jamahal Hill, and Shogun Rua. Submitted Nikita Krylov, Kennedy Nzechukwu, and Magomed Ankalaev.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Rodolfo Bellato
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 12-2-1
  • UFC Record: 2-1-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Jimmy Crute to a majority draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Ihor Potieria, a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 4-1 striker. Submitted a 5-1 striker and an 11-4 striker. Beat a 15-5 wrestler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Craig by 2nd round submission.


Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro

  • Tecia Pennington
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 11-9
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to Tabatha Ricci and Mackenzie Dern.
  • Key Wins: Beat Carla Esparza, Angela Hill, Sam Hughes, Michelle Waterson, and Brianna van Buren.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Luana Pinheiro
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 4-3
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Beat Sam Hughes. Split decision over Michelle Waterson.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Pennington by decision.


Nursulton Ruziboev vs Dustin Stoltzfus

  • Nursulton Ruziboev
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 37-9-2
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 wrestler and a well rounded 17-11 fighter.
  • Key Draws: Fought a 3-2 grappler to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Eric McConico, Sedriques Dumas, Brunno Ferreira, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a well rounded 8-1 fighter, and a well rounded 14-5 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 14-4 fighter. Beat a well rounded 40-9 fighter.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: near plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Dustin Stoltzfus
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 4-5
  • Key Wins: Submitted Puna Soriano. Knocked out Marc Andre Barriault and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat Dwight Grant and a 10-2 wrestler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Ruziboev by 1st round knockout.


Carlos Hernandez vs Hyun Sung Park

  • Carlos Hernandez
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 4-4
  • Key Wins: Beat Denys Bondar and a 3-1 striker. Split decision wins over Nyamjaral Tumendemberel, Victor Altamirano, and Daniel Barez.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Hyun Sung Park
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 9-0
  • UFC Record: 4-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Shannon Ross and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Submitted a 7-2 wrestler and an 8-3 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Park closed as a monster -600 over Ross, with the market thinking he had 65 tools. And even though on the surface Park got the 2nd round KO, the numbers show Ross was getting the better of the striking 46 to 36 up until the knockout.  

Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by decision.


Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa

  • Luana Santos
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 8-2
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Mairya Agapova. Knocked out Juliana Miller. Beat Stephanie Egger and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Tainara Lisboa
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Rose Clark. Beat Ravena Oliveira.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Santos by 2nd round submission.


Gabe Green vs Matheus Camilo

  • Gabe Green
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 2-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Yohan Lainesse, a 7-0 striker, and a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat Philip Rowe.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Matheus Camilo
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 9-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 wrestler and a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat an 8-0 wrestler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Camilo by decision.


Denise Gomes vs Elise Reed

  • Denise Gomes
  • Age: 25
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Yazmin Jauregui, Bruna Brasil, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 3-0 striker. Beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz and a 3-0-1 grappler. Split decision over Eduarda Moura.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Elise Reed
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 4-4
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat Jinh Yu Frey and Melissa Martinez. Split decision wins over Cory McKenna and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Gomes by decision.

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