Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Ciryl Gane
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Andrei Arlovski.
- Tools: Rozenstruik has plus striking (70). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ciryl Gane
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Don’tale Mayes. Beat Tanner Boser.
- Tools: Gane has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
I gotta admit. When this fight was first announced, my knee jerk reaction was to pick Rozenstruik. And when the lines opened and Rozenstruik could be had at over +200, I really thought, for sure, that’s the play. But fortunately, there’s apples to apples footage to watch where both Gane and Rozenstruik have recently fought Junior dos Santos. Rozenstruik does pretty good. Is getting the better of the striking by just a bit, before knocking out JDS. Gane on the hand, wow. He really out classed JDS. Definitely looked better against JDS than Rozenstruik did. So I did something I rarely do with fighters with only 4 UFC fights. I upgraded his striking to a championship level 75 grade, albeit with only 65 power. And Gane only has 7 pro MMA fights. He’s special. If he can stay away from Rozenstruik’s power, stay on the outside, make this a clean, technical fight, he’ll pick Rozenstruik apart. Gane’s cardio should be better too.
Chris’ Pick: Gane by decision.
Magomed Ankalaev vs Nikita Krylov
- Magomed Ankalaev
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ion Cutelaba twice. Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula. Beat Klidson Abreu.
- Tools: Ankalaev has plus striking (70) and plus wrestling (70).
- Nikita Krylov
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Walt Harris at heavyweight. Also knocked out Ed Herman. Submitted Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Francimar Barroso, and Ovince St. Preux.
- Tools: Krylov has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).
Ankalaev has been pegged for awhile as a fighter with the potential of being a future champion. He has 70 striking and 70 wrestling pretty early in his UFC career. Probably shows he hasn’t hit his ceiling yet. Krylov is really good in his own right. He’s had 11 UFC fights, you could say that maybe, he is who he is. But 28 years old is young for light heavyweight. There’s still potential for him to develop. But as far as this fight goes Krylov would have a big advantage in the grappling. But Ankalaev’s wrestling will prevent him from taking the fight there.
Chris’ Pick: Ankalaev by 2nd round knockout.
Montana de la Rosa vs Mayra Bueno
- Montana de la Rosa
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Nadia Kassem. Beat Mara Romero Borella.
- Tools: De la Rosa has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has near plus grappling (65).
- Mayra Bueno
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter in her 1st pro fight. Split decision over a well rounded 7-1 fighter in her 3rd pro fight. Submitted a 7-0 striker in her UFC debut and 4th pro fight. Submitted Gillian Robertson in her 5th pro fight.
- Tools: Bueno has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average grappling (60).
I thought de la Rosa was going to get out classed in her last fight with Viviane Araujo, but instead, I was surprised by the improvement in her stand up. She hung in and almost won the fight, so I upgraded her striking to a 60, although she still lacks power. It’s possible Bueno’s grappling could be a 65, but that won’t matter here. Fight will be on the feet. De la Rosa is better there.
Chris’ Pick: de la Rosa by decision.
Jimmie Rivera vs Pedro Munhoz
- Jimmie Rivera
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Beat Cody Stamann, Thomas Almeida, John Dodson, and Urijah Faber. Split decision win over Pedro Munhoz.
- Tools: Rivera has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Pedro Munhoz
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Frankie Edgar, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Bryan Caraway. Submitted Rob Font. Beat Brett Johns.
- Tools: Munhoz has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
I feel like Munhoz has hit his ceiling. 34 years old. 13 UFC fights. His striking hasn’t gotten past a 60. Time and time again he gets out struck by the best in the division. He gets a chance to prove me wrong against Rivera, who he won’t be able to take down. Fight will be on the feet. I’m very confident Rivera will get the better of the striking exchanges.
Chris’ Pick: Rivera by decision.
Angela Hill vs Ashley Yoder
- Angela Hill
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-7
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Michelle Waterson and Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
- Tools: Hill has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Ashley Yoder
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to MacKenzie Dern and Randa Markos.
- Key Wins: Beat Miranda Granger.
- Tools: Yoder has striking that’s a little above average (55-45). She also has above average wrestling (60).
Hill has definitely improved the past couple years, despite her age. She’s lost two very close split decisions in a row to Waterson and Gadelha. I’m pretty close to upgrading her wrestling to a 65 with the way she stuffed so many of Waterson’s 65 grappling. But when Waterson did take her down in the 3rd, Hill was held down for a few minutes until the round was over. Still, 60 wrestling will be good enough to stuff Yoder’s take downs, forcing her to trade strikes. And although Yoder’s striking has improved to a 55, it’s not on Hill’s level.
Chris’ Pick: Hill by decision.
Alex Caceres vs Kevin Croom
- Alex Caceres
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 12-10
- Key Losses: Lost to Masanori Kanehara. Lost a split decision to Guan Wang.
- Key Wins: Beat Chase Hooper.
- Tools: Caceres has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Kevin Croom
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 20-12
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 16-8 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler, a well rounded 9-1 fighter, and a 9-3 striker. Submitted a 7-2 grappler. Split decision over a 5-2 striker.
- Tools: Croom has fringe average striking (45) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Sometimes fighters get caught and knocked out. The same thing can happen in grappling. Sometimes fighters get caught in a bad spot and have to tap out. These quick finishes can sometimes show one fighter is better than the other and sometimes they don’t. Croom submitting Roosevelt Roberts in his debut in 30 seconds I think is one of those instances. I don’t think Croom has better grappling than Roberts. I view Croom’s grappling as a 55. I haven’t seen enough of the tool to offset all the losses and bad performances he’s had in the last few years. Caceres has a ton of value at -225.
Chris’ Pick: Caceres by 2nd round knockout.
Alexander Hernandez vs Thiago Moises
- Alexander Hernandez
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Beneil Dariush and Chris Greutzemacher. Beat Oliver Aubin-Mercier and Francisco Trinaldo.
- Tools: Hernandez has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Thiago Moises
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamall Emmers. Submitted Michael Johnson. Beat Bobby Green.
- Tools: Moises has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has near plus grappling (65).
Moises pulled off a big upset in his last fight, beating Bobby Green by a controversial decision. I scored the fight for Green. Green had thoroughly out struck Moises by close to a 2 to 1 margin. But Moises was a little better in the grappling and that seems to be why the judges gave him the win. And wow, Hernandez really broke out in his last fight over a usually durable Chris Greutzemacher. After seeing Hernandez fight several times in the UFC, I was starting to think he lacked power and that his Dariush knockout in his debut was more of a fluke. But he knocked Greutzemacher out pretty quick. I think that was his first fight after moving to Colorado to train with Factory X. Moises may have gotten Green down, but he won’t get Hernandez down. He’s got legit near plus 65 wrestling. The fight will come down to who the better striker is.
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by 1st round knockout.
Ramazan Kuramagomedov vs Alex Oliveira
- Ramazan Kuramagomeov
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted an 18-4 wrestler. Split decision over Jordan Williams.
- Tools: Kuramagomedov has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Alex Oliveira
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 11-7
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Yancy Medeiros.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means. Knocked out Ryan LaFlare. Beat Peter Sobotta.
- Tools: Oliveira has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Coin flip fight that I could see going either way. Oliveira has 18 UFC fights. That’s a lot. He got submitted in the 1st round in his last fight by a newcomer in Shavkat Rakhmonov. Not a good look. But before that, he had won 2 in a row and barely lost to Nicolas Dalby. For a lot of wrestlers in the UFC, they won’t try to wrestle the whole fight unless they’re dominating. But then there’s also wrestlers that will wrestle the whole time regardless, and I think Ramazan is one of those guys. On the feet, Oliveira probably lands a little more. But I think Ramazan will get enough take downs to edge out a win.
Chris’ Pick: Kuramagomedov by split decision.
Sabina Mazo vs Alexis Davis
- Sabina Mazo
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Maryna Moroz.
- Key Wins: Submitted Justine Kish. Beat an 8-0 grappler and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision win over JJ Aldrich.
- Tools: Mazo has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Alexis Davis
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Wins: Split decision over Liz Carmouche.
- Tools: Davis has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average grappling (60).
Good test for Mazo’s wrestling. I thought Kish would challenge Mazo there in Mazo’s last fight, but Kish mostly preferred to try and win the stand up. Davis though will be much more focused on the take downs, but Mazo has a great frame for sprawling. Tall. I think she keeps most of the fight on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Mazo by decision.
Alonzo Menifield vs William Knight
- Alonzo Menifield
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Tools: Menifield has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- William Knight
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Aleksa Camur.
- Tools: Knight has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Menifield looked like a guy who was cruising towards a title shot in the next year or so until he gassed out and lost his fight with Devin Clark. Then he does okay against Ovince St Preux before getting knocked out. But Knight is a much more beatable opponent. Not as durable as Clark and OSP. Doesn’t have the best cardio. Doesn’t really pose a threat anywhere to Menfield.
Chris’ Pick: Menifield by 1st round knockout.
Ronnie Lawrence vs Vince Cachero
- Ronnie Lawrence
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Tools: Lawrence has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Vince Cachero
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-3 wrestler. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Nohelin Hernandez. Split decision over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Tools: Cachero has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Lawrence blew me away in his UFC debut on The Contender. Watching him, I thought his wrestling was fringe, a 45. His opponent Jose Johnson was a -280 favorite going into the fight. But wow, Lawrence has wrestling. I’m now grading it a 55. And I wish I got to see Lawrence’s striking more, but it had flashes of a 60 grade. With Cachero, he was better than I thought he’d be against Jamall Emmers, but he’s going to have a disadvantage in the stand up.
Chris’ Pick: Lawrence by decision.
Dustin Jacoby vs Maxim Grishin
- Dustin Jacoby
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 2-0 in his second UFC stint at 205 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Justin Ledet, a 10-3 grappler and a 7-0 grappler. Beat a 7-2 grappler.
- Tools: Jacoby has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Maxim Grishin
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 31-8-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 7-3 striker.
- Key Draws: Fought Jordan Johnson and an 11-4 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker and a 7-1 Alexander Volkov, back in 2010. Knocked out a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 33-10-1 fighter, a 15-3 grappler, and a well rounded 11-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Johnson, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, an 8-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 15-4 fighter.
- Tools: Grishin has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Coin flip fight that could literally go either way. Both are very, very similar in what they can do. Jacoby is younger, has momentum. And I think his striking has a higher ceiling, as opposed to Grishin who’s probably at his ceiling, developmentally speaking. It’s very possible Jacoby comes into this fight even better with 65 striking.
Chris’ Pick: Jacoby by 2nd round knockout.