Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori
- Israel Adesanya
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paulo Costa, Robert Whittaker, and Derek Brunson. Beat Kelvin Gastelum and Anderson Silva.
- Tools: Adesanya has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Marvin Vettori
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 6-2-1
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya.
- Key Draws: Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karl Roberson. Beat Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, Cezar Ferreira, and Andrew Sanchez.
- Tools: Vettori has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
When some fighters are really popular, you can think that they’re better than they actually are. Adesanya is an example of that. Just watch the Adesanya vs Blachowicz fight. The commentators were making it seem as if Adesanya was clearly winning the striking exchanges. But the numbers showed than Blachowicz landed a lot more strikes. And when the judges rendered their decision, the scorecards were 49-46, 49-45, and 49-45 for Blachowicz. That means that all 3 judges had Blachowicz winning 4 of the 5 rounds. That means the judges thought the same as I did that Blachowicz was winning even before he started using his wrestling. I’ll admit I could be wrong in grading Adesanya’s striking. It could be a 75, but I’m grading it as a 70 because of his overall body of work. Everyone says that Adesanya vs Costa was Adesanya’s finest fight. And I’d agree. But there are reports that Costa got drunk the night before the fight. He looked like he had 75 striking. But did that fight have more to do with Costa not showing up than anything else? Before Costa, Adesanya fough Romero. Romero has 70 striking. And I’ve watched that fight several times now and the striking was close to equal. Before that, Adesanya fought Whittaker. Well, if you look at the striking totals, Whittaker was out landing Adesanya before getting knocked out. Knock outs happens sometimes. They don’t always reflect who the superior striker is. Before that, Adesanya fought Gastelum. Now, Gastelum has proven that he has 70 striking. It’s not better than that. And Adesanya almost lost. The Costa fight seems like the outlier. I’m grading Adesanya’s striking as a 70 for now, but I could be wrong. With Vettori, I know Jack Hermansson has 70 striking. He proved it when he out classed Jacare Souza on the feet when Souza was more in his prime. And Vettori out struck Hermansson for 4 of the 5 rounds they fought in. Then Vettori’s fight with Holland, it wasn’t on the feet for too long. The striking was close. Holland has 70 striking, but it’s possible it could be up to a 75. But Vettori just took Holland down repeatedly. I’m not super confident in grading Vettori’s striking as a 75. That’s what it probably is, but I could be wrong. All that said, I think this is going to be a close fight. I expect Vettori to slightly out land Adesanya, which I know some will think I’m crazy. But even if I’m wrong, Vettori should be able to mix some take downs in. And the threat of the wrestling will cause Adesanya to keep his hands low and allow Vettori to land more shots. I also think Vettori has better cardio. Close fight. Vettori should get it done.
Chris’ Pick: Vettori by decision.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno
- Deiveson Figueiredo
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Alex Perez and Tim Elliott. Beat Alex Pantoja.
- Tools: Figueiredo has near plus plus striking (75). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).
- Brandon Moreno
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 6-2-2
- Key Draws: Fought Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brandon Royval. Knocked Dustin Ortiz down and submitted him. Also submitted Louis Smolka. Beat Kai Kara-France. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Tools: Moreno has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus grappling (70).
If it wasn’t for Figueiredo kicking Moreno below the belt and getting a point taken away, Figueiredo would’ve won the first fight. He largely got the better of the striking, although he did slow down towards the end of the fight. Although, we did find out after the fight that Figueiredo was really sick, but fought anyway. Based on his reaction after the decision was rendered and it was announced that he retained the belt, I think there’s some merit to that. I think Figueiredo has solid value at -300 for all these reasons, plus fighters that won the first fight win the rematch close to 75% of the time. I don’t see any path to victory for Moreno. He took Figuieredo down a couple times in their first fight, but it didn’t take long for Figueiredo to get back up. For Moreno to win, he’d have to come in to this rematch an improved fighter. Maybe he figures out how to unlock more power. Maybe he comes in with better grappling and catches Figueiredo in a submission. But the odds are pretty firmly in Figueiredo’s direction.
Chris’ Pick: Figueiredo by decision.
Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz
- Leon Edwards
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Beat Vicente Luque, Donald Cerrone, and Rafael dos Anjos. Split decision over Gunnar Nelson.
- Tools: Edwards has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Nate Diaz
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-4 at 170 lbs. 14-6 at 155 lbs.
- Key Wins: Submitted Conor McGregor. Beat Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone.
- Tools: Diaz has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus grappling (65).
Diaz is a really smart for insisting on this fight being 5 rounds. Because the reality is that Diaz’s strongest rounds are in the 3rd. Look what he did with McGregor in the 4th and 5th rounds of their 2nd fight. Yes, Jorge Masvidal got the better of the striking in their fight. But if the fight was allowed to go into the the 4th and 5th rounds, it’s very possible Diaz could’ve started coming back. Because this is a 5 round fight, I’m upgrading DIaz’s striking to a 70. So when I compare this guys side to side, they’re graded pretty close to equal. I have more confidence in grading Edwards’ striking a 70 than Diaz. But I’m more confident in grading Diaz’s grappling a 65 than Edwards’ wrestling a 65. It’s possible Diaz could take Edwards down or catch him in a choke. Edwards doesn’t have knockout power. Fight will more than likely go 5 rounds. Diaz is dangerous in the 2nd half of the fight. Originally, I was going to pick Edwards, but some books have Diaz as high as +400. That’s crazy. Edwards should be priced around -130 or -150. Because of that, I’m picking the live dog that has a 50/50 chance of winning.
Chris’ Pick: Diaz by decision.
Demian Maia vs Belal Muhammad
- Demian Maia
- Age: 43
- UFC Record: 13-6 UFC record at 170 lbs.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ben Askren. Beat Gunnar Nelson. Split decision win over Jorge Masvidal.
- Tools: Maia has above average striking paired with below average power (60-40). He also has plus grappling (70).
- Belal Muhammad
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban.
- Key Wins: Beat Lyman Good, Chance Rencountre, and Randy Brown.
- Tools: Muhammad has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
I get it. Maia is old. Lots of people, when they’re picking fights, age can be a factor. Muhammed is a whopping 11 years younger. Maia is borderline in his mid forties. But Maia has aged very well. He hasn’t taken a ton of damage over the years. He’s only lost to the best. Matter of fact, he’s won 3 out of his last 4 fights. Muhammad has shown improvement lately, but it’s been with his striking. His wrestling tool has kinda plateaued at 60. I get why Muhammad is the favorite. Majority think that Muhammad can stuff the grappling and out strike Maia. But I disagree. Maia has been out of sight, out of mind for the last year and a half. His body has had time to recover. I think he’s going to get Muhammad against the cage, take him down, and surprise everyone again.
Chris’ Pick: Maia by 1st round submission.
Jamahal Hill vs Paul Craig
- Jamahal Hill
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ovince St Preux. Beat Darko Stosic. Knocked out a 9-2 striker.
- Tools: Hill has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Paul Craig
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shogun Rua. Submitted Kennedy Nzechukwu and Gahdzhimurad Antigulov.
- Tools: Craig has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus grappling (70).
How good is Hill’s wrestling? We’re going to find out in this fight. Thus far, Hill’s stiffest tests when it comes to take downs have been against Klidson Abreu and Darko Stosic. Craig has a true 70 grappling tool. He’s dangerous at all times. And I understand why Hill is the favorite. Craig has a messy 6-4-1 record in the UFC. But I think a lot of people are under estimating the improvements Craig has made in his striking by out striking Shogun Rua. Hill is going to have to respect Craig’s hands. He can’t just keep them down preparing for take down attempts. That should pave the way for Craig to get Hill down, to a place he’s not used to being.
Chris’ Pick: Craig by 2nd round submission.
Drew Dober vs Brad Riddell
- Drew Dober
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Hernandez and Nasrat Haqparast. Beat Scott Holtzman.
- Tools: Dober has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Brad Riddell
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat Alex da Silva, a 12-2 striker. Split decision over Magomed Mustafaev.
- Tools: Riddell has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
This fight is an absolute coin flip. Either guy could win. I have both graded exactly the same. Despite getting dominated by Islam Makhachev in his last fight, Dober has truly improved. And by improve, I mean he’s improved his wrestling because taking him down has been the way to beat him. No one has out struck Dober on the feet and it’s possible his striking could be a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Dober by 2nd round knockout.
Darren Stewart vs Eryk Anders
- Darren Stewart
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-5 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Kevin Holland and Edmen Shahbazyan.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Charles Byrd. Beat Bevon Lewis. Split decision win over Deron Winn.
- Tools: Stewart has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Eryk Anders
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-4 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Lyoto Machida and Elias Theodorou.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rafael Natal. Beat Markus Perez. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Tools: Anders has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
This is a rematch from their no contest back in March. Anders showed improved striking since Krzysztof Jotko out struck him. Anders got the better of the clinch game and wrestling. This is a coin flip fight, but I got to give the edge to Anders because 1) if the striking is close, Anders getting the better of the wrestling could be the difference in him winning the fight. And 2) he was on the verge of knocking Stewart out, before the illegal knee happened. Anders will have that confidence, but don’t be too surprised if Steward pulls a knockout upset.
Chris’ Pick: Anders by decision.
Joanne Calderwood vs Lauren Murphy
- Joanne Calderwood
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-2 at 125 lbs.
- Key Wins: Beat Jessica Eye and Ariane Lipski. Split decision over Andrea Lee.
- Tools: Calderwood has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Lauren Murphy
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 4-0 at 125 lbs. 6-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sara McMann.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mara Romero Borella. Beat Roxanne Modafferi. Split decision over Andrea Lee.
- Tools: Murphy has above average striking (60). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
I’m not super confident in grading Calderwood’s wrestling a 65. I’ve had her as a 60 for awhile. But I rewatched her fight with Jennifer Maia. She took Maia down, and did pretty good on the ground. It’s debatable on whether Maia let her stay on top so she could work submissions from the bottom. She did catch Calderwood in that arm bar. But for those couple minutes when they were wrestling, Calderwood looked improved. And with Murphy, her 65 wrestling grade is a little shaky too. Her last fight with Liliya Shakirova is tough because I haven’t seen enough of Shakirova to know how good she is. But I’m decently sure it’s a 65. With both women knowing that they have to win impressively to get a title shot, I don’t think Murphy is going to try and wrestle this whole fight, cause she wouldn’t dominate there. It’d be boring to watch. I think this is a stand up fight. And I’m a lot more confident in grading their striking tools. Calderwood is better. But Murphy does have more power and there’s a slight chance Murphy could knock her out.
Chris’ Pick: Calderwood by decision.
Hakeem Dawodu vs Movsar Evloev
- Hakeem Dawodu
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Danny Henry.
- Key Wins: Split decisions over Zubaira Tukhugov and Julio Arce.
- Tools: Dawodu has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Movsar Evloev
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 14-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter and a 15-5 wrestler. Submitted an 11-3 striker. Beat Mike Grundy, Enrique Barzola, a 7-1 striker, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 14-2 wrestler. Split decision win over Nik Lentz.
- Tools: Evloev has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Kickboxing fight here. Should be fun. Both are volume guys. Cardio. At this point, I just think Evloev is a better striker. Lentz has shown improved striking. I’m confident that it’s a 60. And Evloev completely out classed him on the feet. Evloev at around -250 is priced about right.
Chris’ Pick: Evloev by decision.
Pannie Kianzad vs Alexis Davis
- Pannie Kianzad
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-5
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-5 striker.
- Key Wins: Beat Sijara Eubanks, Bethe Correia, Jessica-Rose Clark, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 7-2 striker.
- Tools: Kianzad has near plus striking paired with fringe average power (65-45). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Alexis Davis
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 1-3 at 125 lbs. 7-5 oveall.
- Key Wins: Beat Sabina Mazo. Split decision over Liz Carmouche.
- Tools: Davis has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has near plus grappling (65).
I really don’t think Davis has 65 grappling. But at the same time, I can’t ignore what she did to Mazo. Mazo, who I’m pretty confident has 55 wrestling, was taken down and controlled most of the fight. Out classed. And all these losses that Davis has, who have they been against? Vivi Araujo, Jennifer Maia, Katlyn Chookagian, Sara McMann, Ronda Rousey. A who’s who of top 10 ranked fighters. So who knows. I’m not going to deny what she did to Mazo, so her grappling is a 65 for now. I’m also not super confident in grading Kianzad’s wrestling a 65. She fought Eubanks last. Eubanks has 65 wrestling. Eubanks got the better of the wrestling in the first half of the fight. Tired out. Then Kianzad started getting the better of it. But the floor of Kianzad’s wrestling is a 60 for sure. So in conclusion, Kianzad’s wrestling and Davis’ grappling is probably close to equal. Which means most of this fight should be on the feet. And I am super confident that Kianzad is much better there.
Chris’ Pick: Kianzad by decision.
Matt Frevola vs Terrance McKinney
- Matt Frevola
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-2-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes.
- Key Draws: Fought Lando Vannata to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Jalin Turner. Split decision win over Luis Pena.
- Tools: Frevola has striking that’s a little above average that’s paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Terrance McKinney
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 grappler.
- Tools: McKinney has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).
Frank Camacho got hurt. In steps top prospect McKinney. Lines just came out. McKinney is priced at +220. I’m all over it. McKinney just fought 9 days ago with a full camp. He’s in shape. Sean Woodson is good. McKinney fought Woodson on The Contender. Going into that fight, McKinney was a -325 favorite. McKinney dominated that fight, taking Woodson to the ground. Controlling him there. But then Woodson escaped, caught McKinney with a flying knee, and knocked McKinney out. Lucky knockouts happen sometimes. Based on my grades, Frevola won’t be able to use his bread and butter which is his wrestling. And even if he could, he’s not going to want any part of McKinney’s grappling. Fight will be on the feet. McKinney has a big power advantage. He’s knocked out 3 guys in a row. 1 knockout was in a little over a minute. The other 2 knockouts took less than 20 seconds. McKinney started his MMA career as mainly a grappler. 6 of McKinney’s first 7 wins came by submission. But now the last 3 have come by KO. Which means he’s made big improvements in his striking. In case you can’t tell, I love the value of McKinney and expect him to get it done.
Chris’ Pick: McKinney by 2nd round knockout.
Chase Hooper vs Steven Peterson
- Chase Hooper
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 10-1-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Draws: Fought a 7-8 striker to a draw.
- Key Losses: Lost to Alex Caceres.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Teymur. Beat a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Hooper has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Steven Peterson
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Brandon Davis.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Martin Bravo.
- Tools: Peterson has average striking (50) and average grappling (50).
Hooper’s striking looked really bad in the 1st round against Peter Barrett, but it improved a little going into the 2nd round. Enough to give him a 45 grade on his striking, albeit with 35 power. Hooper was able to dive and roll, get tangled up with Barrett enough times to finally get the submission in the 3rd round. It’s pretty obvious that once Hooper starts growing into his body and gets stronger, he could be a force. His grappling has a very high ceiling. Petersen is pretty similar to Barrett, but I do think Barrett’s wrestling could be slightly better. Hooper should have an easier time taking Petersen down. And despite Petersen’s last win being a KO win, those are rare for him. He doesn’t have too many knockouts. His power shouldn’t be a threat. Hooper isn’t a lock by any means. But a lot of books have him at +120. I think there’s some pretty good value there.
Chris’ Pick: Hooper by 2nd round submission.
Fares Ziam vs Luigi Vendramini
- Fares Ziam
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Jamie Mullarkey and a 4-0 striker.
- Tools: Ziam has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Luigi Vendramini
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jessin Ayari.
- Tools: Vendramini has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
I love this fight. Two very good prospects here. Both are probably under rated because they’re not household names. They go head to head here and the only difference I’m seeing is that Vendramini’s grappling should be slightly better than Ziam’s. And if you watch Vendramini’s UFC debut against a guy above his weight class in Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, Vendramini held his own before getting knocked out. I do think this fight could be pretty similar to Ziam vs Jamie Mullarkey. On the feet it’s close. Ziam gets taken down a few times. No way I’m betting this though as I thought Mullarkey beat Ziam, but the judges gave it to Ziam. Same type of thing could happen here.
Chris’ Pick: Vendramini by decision.
Carlos Felipe vs Jake Collier
- Carlos Felipe
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Serghei Spivac.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-0 striker. Split decision over Justin Tafa.
- Tools: Felipe has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jake Collier
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 1-1 at heavyweight. 3-3 at light heavyweight.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Vitor Miranda and Dongi Yang.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Gian Villante and a 9-2 grappler.
- Tools: Collier has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Collier used to fight at 185 lbs. In the UFC. He did okay. He went 2-2. Then he moved up to 205 lbs. He went 1-1. Then he was gone for 3 years. He comes back. Moving to heavyweight. Okay. Comes in at 265 lbs. Wow. He did beat Gian Villante in his last fight. But Villante is a guy that should be fighting at 205 lbs. Now he takes on a budding contender in Felipe. I just don’t see how Collier wins here. Maybe I’m wrong about his wrestling. Maybe he’s gotten in better shape and it’s a 55. But there’s no way he improves his wrestling enough to be able to take Felipe down. On the feet, Felipe will out class him.
Chris’ Pick: Felipe by 2nd round knockout.