Miesha Tate vs Ketlen Vieira
- Miesha Tate
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Holly Holm. Knocked out Marion Reneau. Majority decision over Sara McMann.
- Tools: Tate has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has plus wrestling (70).
- Ketlen Vieira
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Sara McMann. Beat Sijara Eubanks and Ashley Evans-Smith.
- Tools: Vieira has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
Really interesting fight here. On the one hand, I could say, great value here. Most books have this fight as a pick em. And it’s because Tate is such a fan favorite. And those are great fights to bet on. Because the people betting as fans is creating an inefficiency. And that even though Tate looked good against Reneau, we have to keep in mind that that was Reneau’s retirement fight. And we all know how many fighters win in their retirement fight. Not many. So yeah, Tate looks like she still has her wrestling, but is there anyway she beats someone that’s in their prime like Vieira on the feet. And yet, on the other hand, we didn’t see too much of Tate’s stand up. What if it’s gotten better? It’s possible. So I’m not saying Vieira is an absolute lock. But I think the former of what I presented is most likely to play out. And how’s Tate’s cardio going to look in a 5 round fight? Cardio probably favors Vieira, right? And I think it’s pretty likely that as we get closer to the fight, more money will come in on the Tate side and that could drive Vieira to the + side. Not much risk in taking Vieira.
Chris’ Pick: Vieira by decision.
Michael Chiesa vs Sean Brady
- Michael Chiesa
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-1 at 170 lbs. 11-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Beneil Bariush. Beat Neil Magny and Rafael dos Anjos.
- Tools: Chiesa has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus plus grappling (75).
- Sean Brady
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 14-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jake Matthews and Christian Aguilera. Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Beat Court McGee and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Brady has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has plus grappling (70).
The brief time that Chiesa vs Luque was on the feet, Chiesa did okay. He landed some shots. Stand up look improved. And as far as Chiesa’s grappling goes, I can’t decide if it’s a 75 or an 80. Chiesa dominated a 70 wrestler in Neil Magny. He fought Luque who has 65 grappling. Took Luque down. Dominated there. Got close to getting the submission a few times. Left his neck out and Luque caught him in a choke, So what can we take from that? Submissions happen sometimes, just like flash knockouts. If the fight had kept going, would Chiesa have continued to dominate on the ground? Probably. In any case, I’ve downgraded Chiesa’s grappling to a 75, for now. And for Brady, this is an interesting fight for him. Because everybody he’s fought, he’s taken down. But would he be able to take Chiesa down? Would he even want to? Probably not. And on the feet, Brady’s last opponent Matthews, Matthews knocked Brady down. So I have Brady’s striking graded a 60. I think Chiesa is better there and that will help him win the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Chiesa by decision.
Rani Yahya vs Kyung Ho Kang
- Rani Yahya
- Age: 37
- UFC/WEC Record: 15-7-1
- Key Draws: Fought Enrique Barzola to a draw.
- Key Losses: Lost to Joe Soto.
- Key Wins: Submitted Ray Rodriguez and Luke Sanders.
- Tools: Yahya has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Kyung Ho Kang
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Split decision over Pingyuan Liu.
- Tools: Ho Kang has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Both of these guys are hard to grade because of how inactive they’ve been. Ho Kang hasn’t fought in 2 years. Yahya has been fighting once a year since 2018, although this match up will be his 2nd fight of 2021. I’m pretty sure that Yahya’s grappling tool is a 65. His last fight with Ray Rodriguez was the best he’s been in a while, dominating a 55 grappler in Rodriguez. I’m pretty sure Ho Kang has 60 wrestling. But it might be a 65. Meaning that Yahya should get some take downs here and there, but Ho Kang will be able to get back up. On the feet, I’m very confident Ho Kang has the better striking. Coin flip fight. And it’s priced correctly as a pick em. I’m picking Ho Kang though because I think Yahya will start to gas out in the middle of the fight from all of the heavy grappling. Should give Ho Kang an edge to win the 2nd and 3rd.
Chris’ Pick: Ho Kang by split decision.
Joanne Wood vs Taila Santos
- Joanne Wood
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-3 at 125 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Lauren Murphy.
- Key Wins: Beat Jessica Eye and Ariane Lipski. Split decision over Andrea Lee.
- Tools: Wood has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Talia Santos
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 18-1
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Mara Borella Romero.
- Key Wins: Beat Roxanne Modafferi, Gillian Robertson, Molly McCann, and a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Santos has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60) and plus wrestling (70).
Not only is Santos going to get a title shot at 125 lbs, but she might pose the biggest threat Valentina Shevchenko has ever faced at 125 lbs. Santos has well rounded plus 70 tools, except her power hasn’t translated in the UFC yet. Wood is going to need to come into this fight with big improvements in her take down defense to have a chance here. Santos came into the UFC, but her last couple fights, she’s been showing off the wrestling. Santos opened up around -275. I expect that price to balloon up as we get closer to the fight. I think she should be around -450.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by decision.
Adrian Yanez vs Davey Grant
- Adrian Yanez
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Domingo Pilarte in 2017 and Miles John in 2018.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Costa, Gustavo Lopez, a 5-2 striker, and a well rounded 11-1 fighter. Submitted a 5-2 grappler.
- Tools: Yanez has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Davey Grant
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Damian Stasiak and Manny Bermudez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jonathan Martinez. Beat Marlon Vera in 2016.
- Tools: Grant has near plus striking (65). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
This is one of the most interesting fights on the card. Look, I understand why Yanez is the favorite. 4-0 start in the UFC. 4 knockouts. Looks great. But guys, Costa was out landing Yanez at a 4 to 1 clip in the 1st round of their fight. But Costa gassed out going for the finish in the 1st. His gas tank hit empty, Yanez was still there, and Yanez finished him. So I still have Yanez’s striking graded a 60. And truth be told, I’m really close to grading Grant’s striking a 70. He fought Marlon Vera and the striking was very, very close to equal. Vera squeaked out the win with having better grappling. I love Grant here. Right now he’s at +200. And the number could go up a little more. Because I believe the way the public perceives Yanez doesn’t match up with reality.
Chris’ Pick: Grant by 2nd round knockout.
Pat Sabatini vs Tucker Lutz
- Pat Sabatini
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 15-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jamall Emmers, a 12-4 wrestler and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Tools: Sabatini has striking that’s a little above average (55) and near plus grappling (65).
- Tucker Lutz
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Kevin Aguilar and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Lutz has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
It’s hard to grade Sabatini’s grappling. I had it as a 60 going into the Emmers fight. And the fight lasted less than 2 minutes. But in that time, Sabatini got knocked down, recovered, and caught Emmers in a heel hook to get the win. So I have his grappling as a 65 for now, but that could be too high. Lutz will have better striking, Sabatini a little more power. Real coin flip and Lutz is a live dog at +135.
Chris’ Pick: Lutz by split decision.
Rafa Garcia vs Natan Levy
- Rafa Garcia
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat a 10-3 striker. Majority decision win over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Tools: Garcia has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Natan Levy
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 grappler. Majority decision over a 5-3 grappler.
- Tools: Levy has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
I thought Garcia’s striking might have been a 60 going into his last fight with Chris Greutzemacher. But it turns out the tool is instead a 55. However, he does for sure have 60 wrestling. Which helps just in case Levy’s wrestling turns out to be a 60. Which insures this is a stand up fight where Garcia should win there.
Chris’ Pick: Garcia by decision.
Loma Lookboonmee vs Lupita Godinez
- Loma Lookboonmee
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Beat Sam Hughes and Jinh Yu Frey. Split decision over Aleksandra Albu.
- Tools: Lookboonmee has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Lupita Godinez
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
- Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez. Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
- Tools: Godinez has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
Cheyanne Buys withdraws from the fight. In step Godinez. And that changes everything for Lookboonmee who was preparing for a striker vs striker fight. Now she’s going against someone with 65 wrestling on less than 2 weeks notice. That’s tough. Based on what Godinez was able to do with Jessica Penne, I believe in grading her wrestling a 65. I do think she’ll be able to take Lookboonmee down and keep her there most of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Godinez by decision.
Terrance McKinney vs Fares Ziam
- Terrance McKinney
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Frevola and an 11-3 grappler.
- Tools: McKinney has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).
- Fares Ziam
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Jamie Mullarkey and a 4-0 striker. Majority decision over Luigi Vendramini.
- Tools: Ziam has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
I really like McKinney’s potential. I picked him to upset Frevola and he cashed that ticket for me. But Ziam is not Frevola. Now, it’s possible McKinney could take Ziam down and give him problems there. More than likely Ziam will be able to get back up. And when he is up, I’m confident in saying he’ll have the better striking. Most books have this fight as a pick em, but I’m not going to bet Ziam because McKinney could make things really close with his grappling.
Chris’ Pick: Ziam by decision.
Cody Durden vs Qileng Aori
- Cody Durden
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 11-3-1
- UFC Record: 0-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 grappler. Submitted a 10-3 wrestler.
- Tools: Durden has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Qileng Aori
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 18-8
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key WIns: Submitted a 9-2 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat a 5-0 grappler.
- Tools: Qileng has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has average wrestling (50).
This line is way off and Durden is one of the best values on the card. I think people see he was submitted in the 1st round of his last fight and fought to a draw in his UFC debut. But if you dig deeper, you’ll see he fought a submission specialist in Jimmy Flick and got caught. It happens, like flash knockouts. But my confidence in Durden comes from his UFC debut with Chris Guttierez. Because Guttierez is a quality fighter. And a bantamweight. Which means when Durden fought him, it was on short notice and Durden was fighting above his weight class. Durden is a flyweight. And what did Durden do? The striking was close to equal. And Durden was able to take Guttierez down multiple times. Really impressive. Qileng had a fun fight with Jeff Molina. It was close until Qileng started to gas out in the 3rd. Qileng has 55 striking, I’ll give him that. But Durden is better everywhere with 2 legit ways to win.
Chris’ Pick: Durden by decision.
Nuerdanbieke Shayilan vs Sean Soriano
- Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 17-7
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 10-5 grappler. Lost to a 3-2 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler. Submitted a 7-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Nuerdanbieke has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and fringe average grappling (45).
- Sean Soriano
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-7
- UFC Record: 0-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 15-11 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 13-4 grappler. Beat a 6-0 wrestler and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Tools: Soriano has above average striking (60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Nuerdanbieke definitely had better wrestling than I thought he would against Josh Culibao, but it didn’t really matter as Culibao’s wrestling was on an equal level. Same thing should happen with Soriano. Now, on the surface, you can look at Soriano’s loss to Christos Giagos and say, oh, he lost the fight because he came in on short notice. But if you dig deeper, you’ll see that Soriano was also fighting above a weight class. And he still out struck Giagos! So I’m not saying Soriano having 60 striking is a lock. It could be a 55, but I have it as a 60 for now. So what I’m saying is that Soriano has some margin in the stand up and is a solid value at anything under -300.
Chris’ Pick: Soriano by decision.
Sam Hughes vs Luana Pinheiro
- Sam Hughes
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 5-3
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Tools: Hughes has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Luana Pinheiro
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker.
- Tools: Pinheiro has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).
Hughes takes this fight on less than 2 weeks notices. She’s proven to have well rounded 55 tools, albeit with 45 power. This fight is really going to test Pinheiro’s striking. From what I’ve seen so far, I have her graded as a 60 and I’m picking her to win this fight because she should have more power. And might be able to take Hughes down a couple times and maybe catches her in a submission.
Chris’ Pick: Pinheiro by split decision.