Holly Holm vs Irene Aldana
- Holly Holm
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ronda Rousey and Bethe Correira. Beat Raquel Pennington twice. Beat Megan Anderson at 145 lbs.
- Tools: Holm has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Irene Aldana
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Raquel Pennington and Katlyn Chookagian.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ketlen Vieira. Submitted Bethe Correira. Split decision over Lucie Pudilova.
- Tools: Aldana has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). She also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
This pick is based on my impression that Holm has now lost a step. Her fight with Correira was close until she knocked Correira out. She’s actually looked better at 145 lbs, barely losing to Cris Cyborg and out classing Anderson. Meanwhile back at 135 lbs, she barely squeaks out a close decision over Pennington. She’s 38 years old. The weight is probably much harder. I think she’d be better of moving up to 145 lbs permanently. Meanwhile with Aldana, she’s been improving by leaps and bounds and finally got her first UFC knockout against Vieira. Has she unlocked more power in her striking or was this a fluke knockout. Time will tell. If Holm wanted to take Aldana down and try and keep her there for as long as possible, I think Holm wins, but I don’t think she’ll fight that way. I think it’ll play out on the feet. Close fight, but both careers are going in opposite directions.
Chris’ Pick: Aldana by decision.
Yorgan de Castro vs Carlos Felipe
- Yorgan de Castro
- Age: 33
- Pro Record. 6-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Justin Tafa
- Tools: De Castro has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Carlos Felipe
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Sergey Spivac.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker. Beat a 6-0 striker.
- Tools: Felipe has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
Should be a fun fight. Felipe impressed me in his UFC debut against Spivac. Did way better than I thought he would. Showed he had some take down defense. Not that he’ll need it in this fight. But unfortunately for him, de Castro has better striking and more power. He almost beat Greg Hardy, but he won’t come up short here.
Chris’ Pick: de Castro knocks Felipe out in the 1st round.
Germaine de Randamie vs Julianna Pena
- Germaine de Randamie
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Aspen Ladd. Beat Holly Holm and Raquel Pennington.
- Tools: De Randamie has plus striking (70) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Julianna Pena
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Sarah Moras. Beat Cat Zingano and Nicco Montano.
- Tools: Pena has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
Interesting style matchup for de Randamie’s next fight because the way Nunes beat her, taking her down, I think Pena can beat her the same way. This is all striker vs wrestler. De Randamie has shown she can be taken down. I don’t think Pena gets the finish, but she’ll do enough on the ground to win.
Chris’ Pick: Pena by decision.
Kyler Phillips vs Cameron Else
- Kyler Phillips
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 grappler. Beat an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Phillips has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Cameron Else
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter and a 4-0 striker.
- Tools: Else has fringe average striking (45) and fringe average grappling (45).
Else takes this fight on 1 week’s notice. He started his career 4-4 but since then has won 3 in a row. Phillips is better everywhere and should cruise in this fight.
Chris’ Pick: Phillips by decision.
Dusko Todorovic vs Dequan Townsend
- Dusko Todorovic
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michel Pereira and a well rounded 8-0 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Submitted an 8-1 striker. Beat a 14-4 striker.
- Tools: Todorovic has above average striking (60). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
- Dequan Townsend
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 21-11
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Tools: Townsend has fringe average striking (45) and fringe average wrestling (45).
Todorovic is better everywhere, but has a monster advantage in the striking.
Chris’ Pick: Todorovic by 1st round knockout.
Carlos Condit vs Court McGee
- Carlos Condit
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-9
- Key Losses: Submitted by Alex Oliveira.
- Tools: Condit has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Court McGee
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-8
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dhiego Lima. Lost to Ben Saunders.
- Tools: McGee has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Both guys have regressed and aren’t what they used to be. As long as Condit can keep the fight on the feet, he should be fine in out striking McGee.
Chris’ Pick: Condit by decision.
Charles Jourdain vs Josh Culibao
- Charles Jourdain
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Desmond Green
- Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted a 9-3 striker.
- Tools: Jourdain has near plus striking (65) and average grappling (50).
- Josh Culibao
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 striker and beat a 5-0-1 striker by split decision.
- Tools: Culibao has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
Easy fight to pick. Jourdain has a knockout over Doo Ho Choi. Lost a close split decision to Andre Fili. I highly doubt Culibao’s striking is anywhere close to that level.
Chris’ Pick: Jourdain by 2nd round knockout.
Jordan Williams vs Nassourdine Imavov
- Jordan Williams
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 5-0 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gregory Rodrigues and a 4-0 grappler.
- Tools: Williams has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Nassourdine Imavov
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 wrestler and a 9-1 striker. Beat a 12-4 grappler.
- Tools: Imavov has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average grappling (50).
Coin flip fight. I think Williams is hot and has confidence right now, fresh off a knockout over Rodrigues. The striking between these two could be equal, but I think Williams key to winning here could be mixing in some of his wrestling to take Imavov down.
Chris’ Pick: Williams by decision.
Jinh Yu Frey vs Loma Lookboonmee
- Jinh Yu Frey
- Age: 35
- Pro/Amateur Record: 12-7
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Seo Hee Ham. Split decision loss to Jodie Esquibel.
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 9-3 grappler, a 13-3 wrestler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Tools: Frey has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has average wrestling (50).
- Loma Lookboonmee
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 4-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 1-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Split decision over Aleksandra Albu.
- Tools: Lookboonmee has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
When the UFC first signed Lookboonmee, I was skeptical. She had a 3-1 MMA record and lost to a 1-1 grappler. But her wrestling has improved quite a bit. She’s younger, faster, and has better striking than Frey.
Chris’ Pick: Lookboonmee by decision.
Casey Kenney vs Heili Alateng
- Casey Kenney
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-2-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Draws: He fought a well rounded 8-3 fighter to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Louis Smolka. Beat Ray Borg on short notice. Beat Manny Bermudez.
- Tools: Kenney has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has plus wrestling (70).
- Heili Alateng
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 14-7-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 striker. Beat Danaa Batgerel. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Tools: Heili has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Striker vs wrestler. Whether Kenney can take Heili down will determine who wins the fight. Despite Kenney getting out wrestled by Merab Dvalishvili, I still think Kenney has 70 wrestling. And even if I’m wrong and it’s more like a 65, he’s still going to be able to take Heili down.
Chris’ Pick: Kenney by decision.
Jessin Ayari vs Luigi Vendramini
- Jessin Ayari
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 16-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Stevie Ray.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 13-2 grappler and an 8-3 wrestler. Beat a 5-0 grappler and a 7-2 grappler.
- Tools: Ayari has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Luigi Vendramini
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Tools: Vendramini has fringe average striking (45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
All of Vendramini’s wins have been over cans. But he didn’t completely get wiped out when he fought Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in his UFC debut. On the feet, Vendramini got demolished and knocked out in the 2nd round, but in the 1st round, he took Zaleski dos Santos’ back and controlled him for a good chunk of the first round. So he has wrestling. But unfortunately for Vendramini, Ayari has wrestling that’s close to equal that will force him to strike. And Ayari is big, lanky, and has the better striking.
Chris’ Ayari by decision.