The Korean Zombie vs Dan Ige
- The Korean Zombie
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by Yair Rodriguez with 1 second left in their fight.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Edgar and Renato Moicano.
- Tools: Zombie has near plus striking (65). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Dan Ige
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gavin Tucker. Knocked down Danny Henry and submitted him. Beat Kevin Aguilar. Split decision wins over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza.
- Tools: Ige has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
I was just as surprised as everyone else. I picked Brian Ortega to beat Korean Zombie, but I thought Ortega would use his grappling to get it done. What actually happened is Zombie came in with improved 70 wrestling, to stuff the take downs. But Ortega was out classing Zombie on the feet. Out landing strikes at a 2 to 1 clip. So, what do we make of that. I thought Zombie had 70 striking going into that fight. I doubt Ortega all of a sudden has 80 striking all of a sudden. Sure, I’ll grade it a 75. What I’m trying to say is that yes, to me, Ortega was much improved. But the other part is that I think the Zombie’s striking took a step back. He is 34 years old. He’s been in a lot of wars. I’m not super confident in doing this, but I’m going to regress his stirking to a 65 for now. Ige though, I got to upgrade his striking to a full 70, along with 70 power. His quick 22 second knockout over Gavin Tucker was really impressive. And I’m talking about the power, because going into that fight, I thought Ige’s power was more of the 55-60 variety. I also have to give Ige’s striking his due that it is a 70 tool. He barely out struck Barboza and Barboza has looked really good since then. And I rewatched his fight with Kattar and it was closer than I remember. One more factor, that could be the kiss of death, Zombie has started talking about how he thought about retirement after the Ortega fight. Uh oh. I don’t know what the exact numbers are, but I do know that when fighters start talking about retirement, their win loss record is pretty bad. All that said, I think Zombie has the ability to take Ige down if he really wanted to, but that’s not his style. It’s going to be a stand up fight and I do think Ige will have an advantage there. Ige’s gone 5 rounds. He’s shown to be durable. I think he gets it done.
Chris’ Pick: Ige by decision.
Aleksei Oleinik vs Serghei Spivac
- Aleksei Oleinik
- Age: 43
- UFC Record: 8-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Daniel Omielanczuk in his UFC debut.
- Key Wins: Submitted Maurice Greene, Travis Browne, and Mark Hunt. Knocked out Jared Rosholt. Split decision win over Fabricio Werdum.
- Tools: Oleinik has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average grappling (60).
- Serghei Spivac
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tai Tuivasa and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Jared Vanderaa. Majority decision over Carlos Felipe.
- Tools: Spivac has above average striking (60) and near plus grappling (65).
I really like Oleinik. He’s won me many an upset pick over the years. But at 43 years old, I’m finally seeing regression. His grappling was a 70. With the Derrick Lewis fight, you could see signs of it with Derrick Lewis being able to escape Oleinik’s submissions. But I knew for sure the regression had arrived in his last fight with Chris Daukaus. And there’s no way Daukaus has 65 wrestling. No way. He has 60 wrestling. And Oleinik couldn’t get him down. So I have Oleinik’s grappling as a 60. And his striking has declined to a 55. Spivac on the other hand, his career is going in the opposite direction. He’s a whopping 17 years younger than Oleinik. And he had a real breakout against Vanderaa. And my first reaction to seeing that fight was, oh, I guess Vanderaa wasn’t as good as I thought. But not so, with how Vanderaa out struck Justin Tafa. It was Spivac who made Vanderaa look bad. Even if I’m wrong about Oleinik’s grappling, he still won’t be able to get Spivac down. I really like Spivac at -230.
Chris’ Pick: Spivac by decision.
Marlon Vera vs Davey Grant 2
- Marlon Vera
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 10-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Douglas Silva de Andrade. Lost a controversial decision to Yadong Song.
- Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Sean O’Malley, Frankie Saenz and Andre Ewell.
- Tools: Vera has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
- Davey Grant
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Damian Stasiak and Manny Bermudez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jonathan Martinez. Beat Marlon Vera in 2016.
- Tools: Grant has near plus striking (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
The Vera vs Jose Aldo fight was way closer than I remember. Vera actually out struck Aldo almost 2 to 1 in the 1st round of their fight. Overall, the striking was close to equal, but I think Aldo won because he landed the more powerful shots. But that fight really solidified, to me, that Vera’s striking is a 70. And that his knockout over Sean O’Malley was no fluke. And speaking of no flukes, we got to start giving Grant’s striking credit. That knockout over Martinez wasn’t a fluke either. 2 rounds into that fight, Grant’s striking was close to equal with Martinez. So this is a big fight between two legit contenders. Ironically, Grant came into the UFC, known as the grappler. But his striking tool has really surpassed his grappling. And ironically, that’s going to be Vera’s best path to victory. Taking Grant down. But Vera could win anywhere. He could win on the feet too. Because of that, I really like Vera at anything around -200.
Chris’ Pick: Vera by 2nd round knockout.
Seung Woo Choi vs Julian Erosa
- Seung Woo Choi
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Beat Youssef Zalal and an 8-1 grappler.
- Tools: Choi has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Julian Erosa
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Artem Lobov and Teruto Ishihara.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nate Landwehr and Jamall Emmers. Submitted Sean Woodson.
- Tools: Erosa has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Choi really broke out in his last fight against Zalal. He started off 0-2 in the UFC. Beat Suman Mokhtarian. Ho hum. But Zalal is a decent UFC fighter. And Choi out classed him on the feet. Also showed he has real 55 wrestling. Erosa also had a bit of a break out in his last fight too, submitting Sean Woodson. Except in that fight, Woodson was beating Erosa on the feet. Erosa got a couple take downs. Woodson would keep getting up. But as Woodson was getting up, Erosa caught him in a choke and that was it. Quick submissions like that happen. Like knockouts. Choi is one of my favorite near locks on the card and one of the best values if you can find him anywhere near -150. In my opinion, Choi should be closer to -350.
Chris’ Pick: Choi by decision.
Wellington Turman vs Bruno Silva
- Wellington Turman
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 16-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 13-3 striker and a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Knocked out a 7-1 striker in only his 3rd pro fight. Beat a 12-3 striker.
- Tools: Turman has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 19-6
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 22-11 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 11-0 fighter.
- Tools: Silva has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Ordinarily, I’d say this fight could go either way. Because Turman should have better wrestling and he has no problem using it, even if the fight is boring. But most of the judges haven’t been putting much value on just take downs or clinch control. I think half this fight could be on the fence or on the ground, but when they’re on the feet, SIlva will have a big power advantage. He’s also going to have a big reach advantage. And Turman can be knocked out. Plus coming off his first KO loss of his career, he could be extra gun shy.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by 2nd round knockout.
Matt Brown vs Dhiego Lima
- Matt Brown
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 15-12
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means. Knocked out Diego Sanchez.
- Tools: Brown has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Dhiego Lima
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-7
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jesse Taylor. Lost to Yushin Okami.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Laprise. Split decision over Court McGee.
- Tools: Lima has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Despite Brown’s age, he can still strike. He surprised me when he fought Miguel Baeza. Yes, he got knocked out. But prior to that, his striking was almost equal to Baeza’s. I’m pretty sure he has 60 striking. I’m very sure Lima has 55 striking. Brown will have a big power advantage. I do think Lima has better wrestling. He might be able to beat Brown there. But it’s not his style to do that. And besides, with how the judges have been scoring fights lately, wrestling without strikes hasn’t been counting for much.
Chris’ Pick: Brown by decision.
Nicolae Negumereanu vs Aleksa Camur
- Nicolae Negumereanu
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Tools: Negumereanu has average striking (50) and fringe average grappling (45).
- Aleksa Camur
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler and a 4-1 grappler.
- Tools: Camur has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
Negumereanu is interesting because he was pretty bad against Saparbek Safarov. And yet commentators were saying things like, “this isn’t how this guy normally fights” and “oh, this must be the UFC jitters”. So who knows on that. Then there’s the fact that Negumereanu hasn’t fought in over 2 years. So there’s a lot of unknowns when it comes to what we’re going to see from him in this fight. Camur is the much more known commodity. I know he has 60 striking from how he out struck Justin Ledet. I know his wrestling is at least a 50. Might be a 55, from how he almost kept pace with William Knight’s wrestling. So I really like Camur in this fight, despite Negumereanu being an unknown because there’s so much margin between Camur’s striking and Negumereanu’s striking.
Chris’ Pick: Camur by 2nd round knockout.
Virna Jandiroba vs Kanako Murata
- Virna Jandiroba
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 16-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a 10-2 striker. Split decision wins over Mizuki Inoue and a 7-2 grappler.
- Tools: Jandiroba has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has plus grappling (70).
- Kanako Murata
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker. Beat Randa Markos and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Tools: Murata has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and average grappling (50).
Let me tell you, I was very impressed by Murata in her UFC debut against Markos. I was skeptical. Thought Markos could stuff the take downs and out strike her. But not only did Murata take Markos down, her striking also held up as well. I’m confident Murata’s striking is a 55 and that Jandiroba’s is a 50. I think Jandiroba will take Murata down a couple times, but Murata will get back up. Murata at + money is solid value if you ask me.
Chris’ Pick: Murata by decision.
Khaos Williams vs Matt Semelsberger
- Khaos Williams
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Abdul Razak Alhassan and Alex Morono. Beat a well rounded 9-3 fighter.
- Tools: Williams has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Matt Semelsberger
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jason Witt. Beat a 10-1 striker.
- Tools: Semelsberger has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
I’ll admit, I wasn’t really sure about Williams’ striking. I’ve seen quick knockouts in the UFC before and sometimes they mean something and sometimes they don’t. And I think I was slow to warm to Williams because I’ve seen him outside the UFC against a 10-3 striker in the WXC and it was a close fight. Williams did okay. Right now he has 11 pro wins, only 6 of them by KO, 1 by submission, 4 by decision. So these quick knockouts haven’t really been his path to victory. But. He did finally impress me in his last fight with Michel Pereira. Ironic, right? The quick KOs don’t impress me, but then he loses and I’m impressed. Pereira has legit 60 striking. And Williams slightly out struck Pereira. Pereira won because the striking was close and he mixed in his grappling. Got some take downs. But it showed that this Williams in the UFC is an improved version from what he was outside the UFC. Williams does have 60 striking. And he also showed 55 wrestling in his fight with Pereira too. Semelsberger looks okay. 55 striking. Maybe he has 55 wrestling, but I have the tool graded as a 50 for now. Based on what Williams did to Pereira, he should be heavier than -165.
Chris’ Pick: Williams by 2nd round knockout.
Josh Parisian vs Roque Martinez
- Josh Parisian
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker and a 24-8 striker.
- Tools: Parisian has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has fringe average wrestling (45).
- Roque Martinez
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 15-7-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Mirko Cro Cop. Split decision loss to a 12-9 wrestler.
- Key Draws: Fought a 16-11 wrestler to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision win over an 8-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Martinez has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and fringe average grappling (45).
Martinez and Parker Porter are pretty similar. That’s who Parisian fought last. Parisian out struck Porter during the first 2 rounds of the fight. Porter got a couple take downs in. Parisian got up. Porter had some success clinching Parisian against the fence. Parisian gassed out in the 3rd. I see a similar fight playing out. For Martinez to win, he’s going to need to clinch Parisian against the fence and wear him out. But Parisian is only 31 years old. I’d like to think that he’s going to come in with at least slightly improved cardio. Martinez is really durable, so he needs to make sure he doesn’t gas out.
Chris’ Pick: Parisian by decision.
Joaquim Silva vs Rick Glenn
- Joaquim SIlva
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Gordon.
- Tools: Silva has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Rick Glenn
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Kevin Aguilar.
- Key Wins: Beat Gavin Tucker. Split decision wins over Dennis Bermudez and Phillipe Nover.
- Tools: Glenn has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Two guys coming off long layoffs collide here. But the interesting wrinkle is that Glenn is moving up to 155 lbs for the first time in the UFC. Should be a stand up fight. Glenn’s last fight was against Aguilar. Striking was pretty equal. And I know Aguilar has 55 striking. Silva did okay aginst a 65 striker in Nasrat Haqparast. Silva at a nearly pick em price of -115 is pretty good value based on how convinced I am that he has the better striking.
Chris’ Pick: Silva by decision
Lara Procopio vs Casey O’Neill
- Lara Procopio
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Karol Rosa.
- Key Wins: Beat Molly McCann.
- Tools: Procopio has striking that’s a little above average (55) and near plus grappling (65).
- Casey O’Neill
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shana Dobson. Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: O’Neill has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
High level fight here to kick off the card. Both are elite prospects and have contender type ceilings. But there’s no way I’m betting this fight. It’s too close. There’s a decent chance this fight is decided on the feet and I don’t have a good handle on O’Neill’s striking. When she made her UFC debut, she just dominated Dobson with her wrestling. It’s also possible that Procopio is able to mix in some take downs. I’m picking Procopio because of that. But who knows. O’Neill had problems getting quality fights before she signed with the UFC and there’s not much footage out there on her.
Chris’ Pick: Procopio by split decision.